Marc Caputo Profile picture
Oct 31 8 tweets 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1 of 8 tweets

Why the Iowa Poll was a "PR disaster for DeSantis:"

Beyond undercutting his narrative that he’s “climbing” or the primary is “a two-man race,” it also highlights the alternate universe constructed by a chronically underperforming campaign

themessenger.com/politics/desan…
2/8
The DeSantis camp is right: Team Trump sees him as the only viable POTENTIAL threat. MAGA Inc has spent $21.5m attacking the gov

He's been the target of more negative indy expenditures — $21.8 million — than any other prez candidate per @rpyers

themessenger.com/politics/desan…
3/8
Team Trump believes if they bury DeSantis in IA, the race is over
@RogerJStoneJr: "Trump's camp is responding to the media hype over Ron DeSantis & they’re putting the final nails in DeSantis’s coffin...Haley is definitely a threat – but to DeSantis" tinyurl.com/2suyc6jk
4/8
Team DeSantis has pointed out that Trump can still fall & DeSantis can still rise. And team Trump expects DeSantis to regain some footing & make it more of a race

But no Republican has ever polled at such a high level as Trump & lost Iowa
tinyurl.com/2suyc6jk
Image
5/8
Team DeSantis points to Cruz's 2016 Iowa win after he began his rise in Oct

But Trump was only polling then at 21% (he's 40%+ now) & Cruz only trailed him by 11 pts (DeSantis is down 27 in the IA Poll)

Cruz barely won & Trump still won the nomination tinyurl.com/2suyc6jk
Image
6/8 How about Iowa in 2012?

Santorum skyrocketed late & barely beat Romney. But Romney never received more than 25% support in polls (again, Trump is 40%+) now

Romney ultimately won the party’s nomination anyway
tinyurl.com/2suyc6jk
Image
7/8 So what's Iowa 2008 look like?

Huckabee began his rise in October and won with 30% of the vote against John McCain, who collapsed after reaching a high of about 30% in the polls

Again: Trump is +40%. And McCain in 08 won his party's nomination anyway
tinyurl.com/2suyc6jk
Image
8/8 How about 2000 in Iowa? Alas, we have no Real Clear polling averages, but George W. Bush was polling between 43-49% -- where Trump is now -- and he handily won the caucus and his party’s nomination. He then became president themessenger.com/politics/desan…

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More from @MarcACaputo

Oct 24
NEWS: Top DeSantis ally @VoteRandyFine —FL legislature’s only Jewish Republican — switches sides & endorses Trump, blasting the gov. for too too little action on antisemitism. He says Trump is better on Israel

1/8

themessenger.com/politics/top-a…
2) Fine lists a host of complaints —including DeSantis’s refusal to aggressively denounce neo-Nazis in FL last year

Fine sees a weak state response to “antisemitic” pro-Palestine rallies at state colleges (others say it’s free speech)

themessenger.com/politics/top-a…
3) “I love his words. His actions have broken my heart,” @VoteRandyFine says of DeSantis’s response to antisemitism. “He almost did nothing.”

Fine sponsored DeSantis’s Disney & trans crackdown bills

themessenger.com/politics/top-a…
Read 8 tweets
May 25
1/5

Exclusive: In a close-door briefing, DeSantis pollster Ryan Tyson laid out his theory of the case v. Trump based on 4 metrics

✅favorability

✅conservative ratings

✅readiness to be POTUS

✅Everyone else waiting their turn

bit.ly/43m8eap
2/5

Trump’s team dismisses DeSantis’s case as happy talk that ignores Trump’s lead in early states

But independent pollsters say DeSantis’s findings jibe w/their own and shouldn’t be dismissed showing DeSantis being better-liked etc

bit.ly/43m8eap ImageImage
3/5

Very conservative voters like both men a lot and are a major base of support of the primary. DeSantis is more likely than Trump to be seen as very conservative

bit.ly/43m8eap Image
Read 5 tweets
May 24
One reason it might be good to let the MSM broadcast a presidential announcement: the MSM knows how to broadcast it without crashing
Incredible music
The last thing Elon said before the broadcast cut again:

“Alright, I’d like to welcome, umm, Gov. DeSantis, uh, for this historic —we’re just trying, just trying to get it going because it’s —there’s just so many people. It’s unfortunate. I’ve never seen this before.”
Read 4 tweets
May 18
🧵1/10
An early inside look at DeSantis early state strategy:

He’s ready to go Full Grassley, viewing Iowa as such a make-or-break state for his presidential bid that he’s considering a plan to campaign across all 99 of its counties

themessenger.com/politics/insid…
2/10
Motivating DeSantis in Iowa: Trump’s strong position & the reality of momentum in prez primaries

Strategists tied to DeSantis, Trump & other candidates all believe a Trump Iowa win will likely make his momentum unstoppable heading into NH & beyond

themessenger.com/politics/insid…
3/10

DeSantis camp also views NH as a must-win right now because of Trump’s strength in South Carolina & Nevada, the last 2 early states

They’ve wargamed how the two slug it out in 15 more states, leading to a home state Florida donnybrook March 19

bit.ly/3ocAhcR
Read 10 tweets
May 17
The @NikkiFried era @FlaDems starts off with a signature win

@DonnaDeegan, a former TV anchor, had great name ID & ran a centrist & polite campaign w/message discipline

DeSantis-endorsed Daniel Davis ran a hard-right campaign that ignored purple Duuuuvallll demos
A Republican familiar with Jacksonville noted this to me:

In 2015, Republican Lenny Curry won the mayoral race in a nearly D+ 2 electorate

But in 2023, the Republican Davis got beat in R+3.3 electorate
“Coat your words with honey. It makes them easier to swallow” —former Florida Sen Don Gaetz (father of @mattgaetz)
Read 4 tweets
Nov 29, 2022
“Kanye punked Trump:” the inside story of how the former president walked into an apparent trap after shrugging off advice not to meet with the rapper, who brought along a white nationalist to dinner at Mar-a-Lago

🧵1/10

nbcnews.to/3OIIeiR
2/10 Trump was supposed to have a private dinner w/Ye —but he made an ostentatious entrance to applause at the dining hall Tues & invited Ye’s group to dine w/him on MAL’s patio for all to see. He said it would be “fun” for members to see the rap superstar nbcnews.to/3OIIeiR
3/10 The dinner started out friendly, but Ye angered Trump by telling him he would run for president against him & that Trump should be Ye’s running mate. He also said Trump did too little for J6ers, an accusation Ye repeated in a now-deleted video

nbcnews.to/3OIIeiR
Read 11 tweets

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