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GeoConfirmed Investigation - Russian Avdiivka Offensive
Based on Open Sources and double checked by Com Sat Img, since the offensive started on 9 or 10 October:
Russian losses:
197 vehicle losses.
18 potential vehicle losses.
Loss = Damaged or destroyed.
1/X
Based on Open Sources and double checked by Com Sat Img, since the offensive started on 9 or 10 October:
Russian losses:
197 vehicle losses.
18 potential vehicle losses.
Loss = Damaged or destroyed.
1/X
Losses older than 9 October (Purple).
At least 61 are filtered out.
Every loss after 9 October is checked with Com Sat Img.
2/X
At least 61 are filtered out.
Every loss after 9 October is checked with Com Sat Img.
2/X
Methodology:
Losses: If a vehicle is more than 3 days on the exact same place. Most of the time burnmarks/destruction is visible. Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.
Potential loss: no second footage available to confirm its a loss.
3/X
Losses: If a vehicle is more than 3 days on the exact same place. Most of the time burnmarks/destruction is visible. Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.
Potential loss: no second footage available to confirm its a loss.
3/X
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712537589276954794
99 Losses (Orange) are from the first wave of the offensive:
Between 9 and 13 October.
94 losses (Orange) are from the second wave of the offensive:
Between 14 and 23 October.
4 confirmed (Orange) and 18 potential losses (Yellow) between 24 and 31 October.
4/X
Between 9 and 13 October.
94 losses (Orange) are from the second wave of the offensive:
Between 14 and 23 October.
4 confirmed (Orange) and 18 potential losses (Yellow) between 24 and 31 October.
4/X
Let's start with South Avdiivka.
Vehicles from this video are confirmed destroyed.
5/X
Vehicles from this video are confirmed destroyed.
5/X
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712537589276954794
EVERY pin is a different confirmed loss.
6/X
6/X
The area around Vodyane.
Some examples.
7/X
Some examples.
7/X
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1712777400872845799
Losses around Vodyane:
11/X
11/X
Lets go to North Avdiivka:
First the area around Novoselivka Druha:
12/X
First the area around Novoselivka Druha:
12/X
Other footage from some of those losses:
14/X
14/X
https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1713839250154676573
Area around Krasnohorivka.
15/X
15/X
Area south of Krasnohorivka.
18/X
18/X
Remember this video?
All the orange pins East and South of the lake are the result.
19/X
All the orange pins East and South of the lake are the result.
19/X
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1713202290054586515
And the destruction in this video is also mostly in this area:
20/X
20/X
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1715661050933043564
West of Krasnohorivka.
21/X
21/X
And this column?
Needed to retreat. But at least 6 vehicles were destroyed during this retreat.
25/X
Needed to retreat. But at least 6 vehicles were destroyed during this retreat.
25/X
https://twitter.com/TwistyCB/status/1718289710227877941
Some more losses from this area.
(At 0:39 you see, for example, the vehicles from the above footage that were not able to retreat.)
26/X
(At 0:39 you see, for example, the vehicles from the above footage that were not able to retreat.)
26/X
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1715661050933043564
12 October we stated this.
"this could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war."
We can conclude now that this is by far the most costly Russian assault, during 3 weeks, for one city, since the beginning of the war.
28/X
"this could become the most costly Russian assault since the beginning of the war."
We can conclude now that this is by far the most costly Russian assault, during 3 weeks, for one city, since the beginning of the war.
28/X
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1712337033153175709
197 vehicle losses.
18 potential vehicle losses.
61 previously known losses in this area.
This is not even comparable with the Ukrainian losses during their offensive. Nor in amount, nor in time.
29/
18 potential vehicle losses.
61 previously known losses in this area.
This is not even comparable with the Ukrainian losses during their offensive. Nor in amount, nor in time.
29/
Special thanks to @Tatarigami_UA for his great work regarding this investigation.
31/X
31/X
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1716492677875748978
If you like our work you can provide us a coffee.
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32/Xbuymeacoffee.com/geoconfirmed
This helps:
Improving our map and user interface
Improving data management
Buying Sat Img for confirmations and investigations
Thx!
32/Xbuymeacoffee.com/geoconfirmed
Because some people really have a problem with reading comprehension, an additional clarification:
a. "From 09/10 october" means that those losses where not there before. Not visible on Sat Img, not seen before. NOT THERE BEFORE.
Purple are the older losses.
b. Tweet 3 states clearly: Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.
So from the 99 losses between 9 and 13 Oct and 94 losses from between 14 and 23 October only 10 were not there anymore on 30 or 31 October.
So at least 90 losses are still in place since at least 13 October...
and at least 84 losses are still in place since at least 23 October...
We checked EVERY POTENTIAL LOSS on the 30/31 Oct Com Sat img.
Loads are visible in the GeoConfirmed footage, others are in the @Tatarigami_UA thread, others were not known yet but visible in Com Sat Img.
Please, for some of you: read a thread before you react.
33/X
a. "From 09/10 october" means that those losses where not there before. Not visible on Sat Img, not seen before. NOT THERE BEFORE.
Purple are the older losses.
b. Tweet 3 states clearly: Less than 10 were moved before 31 October.
So from the 99 losses between 9 and 13 Oct and 94 losses from between 14 and 23 October only 10 were not there anymore on 30 or 31 October.
So at least 90 losses are still in place since at least 13 October...
and at least 84 losses are still in place since at least 23 October...
We checked EVERY POTENTIAL LOSS on the 30/31 Oct Com Sat img.
Loads are visible in the GeoConfirmed footage, others are in the @Tatarigami_UA thread, others were not known yet but visible in Com Sat Img.
Please, for some of you: read a thread before you react.
33/X
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