Thread by @shashj

🧵This week The Economist spoke to Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, on the state of the war. It’s a fascinating & important interview. “Just like in the first world war we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” economist.com/europe/2023/11…

We also published an opinion piece by Zaluzhny on what he thinks is needed to break out of "positional" war. He says "air superiority" is key to ground operations & emphasises technology: drones, EW, new sorts of mine-breaching & counter-battery tech. economist.com/by-invitation/…

Finally, you can read a full-length essay by Zaluzhny in which he elaborates on these ideas over 4,000-plus words. "The need to avoid...a positional [war], such as the "trench war" of 1914-1918, necessitates the search for new & non-trivial approaches." infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalC…

First, on the interview. Zaluzhny expresses the four hypotheses I circulated yesterday. He says the war is in stalemate ("тупик"). He says: “There will most likely be no deep & beautiful breakthrough.” And he largely blames the state of military technology

https://x.com/shashj/status/1719485286034330016?s=20

Zaluzhny's view of the battlefield is a familiar one: that modern sensors & precision weapons can make it prohibitively hard & costly for ground forces to concentrate, move and attack. See my writing here () and here () for instance. economist.com/technology-qua…
economist.com/special-report…

Zaluzhny suggests the key issue is not just more arms. "This war cannot be won with the weapons of the past generation & outdated methods." It is technology. He is enthusiastic about his meetings with Eric Schmidt, the ex-CEO of Google, on AI, drones & EW. economist.com/europe/2023/11…

Zaluzhny's essay shows the influence of the likes of Eric Schmidt (). Air superiority, Zaluzhny argues, requires "simultaneous en-masse use of cheap unmanned aerial [decoys] & attack UAVs...to overload the enemy's air defence system" time.com/collection/tim…
infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalC…

Zaluzhny's emphasis on electronic warfare cannot be overstated. It is key to the drone war, he suggests. He speaks highly of Russian performance. And says Ukraine needs more Western ELINT & more EW conducted from drones "during assault operations" infographics.economist.com/2023/ExternalC…

For more context on electronic warfare in the Ukraine war, see the relevant chapter in my special report from July: economist.com/special-report…

In my view, Zaluzhny's view of technology is too simple. What tends to be more important than technology is how it's adopted in tactics, concepts and doctrine. And the impact is often incremental, not revolutionary. See, inter alia, @mchorowitz's book. press.princeton.edu/books/paperbac…

Zaluzhny's view on air power is pessimistic. He says air superiority is vital to ground ops. But Ukraine is not going to achieve that. He plays down the role of F-16s (doesn't get a mention in his essay) & says Ru air defence is adapting & improving fast. economist.com/europe/2023/11…

Zaluzhny, to his credit, is brutally honest about the offensive & his efforts to come to terms with its shortcomings. This is more than can be said for certain pro-Ukr types, who call people vatniks & pro-Russians for expressing what the general has said. economist.com/europe/2023/11…

Finally, kudos to my brilliant colleague @ArkadyOstrovsky for conducting this interview with Zaluzhny. economist.com/europe/2023/11…