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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Nov 1 • 11 tweets • 4 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This is one of those glass half empty/glass half full posts about the Russo-Ukraine War.

People wanting to see Russian power, see Russian air superiority.

When I look at Oct 22 report, it tells me that the RuAF has run out of trucks to support their artillery.

Logistics 🧵
1/
The Russians are using the VKS to deliver firepower to the Left bank of the Dnipro in lieu of artillery.

So where are they getting the fuel?

How are they moving & distributing it?

2/
Russia has an increasingly critical shortage of tactical trucks and particularly fuel trucks to distribute fuel.

This is affecting the Russian economy and has caused fuel shortages in Crimea

3/
To run VKS glide bomb operations along the Dnipro requires jet fuel jet fuel delivered into Crimea at the expense of gasoline & diesel.

Yes, the Kerch straits road bridges are repaired, but Russia doesn't have the fuel trucks to use it for jets w/o cutting off AFV's of fuel.
4/
The Kerch Straits railway bridge hasn't been repaired to allow heavy cistern fuel cars to cross it.

These cistern cars have to move by rail ferry.

If the VKS is using Crimean bases for glide bomb sorites, there would be shortages inside Ukraine.⬇️

5/
 ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/377…
Which is exactly what Ukrainian Partisans are reporting the Russian Army is suffering in Mariupol as of 27 Oct 2023.

If there is a RuAF fuel shortage in Ukraine, you would expect Ukraine to act to make it worse.
6/ Image
We have confirmation of that with the Ukrainian Security Service attack on the Afip Refinery in the 🇷🇺Krasnodar region - the closest refinery to supply Crimea.

Nor is that the only Ukrainian strike on RuAF fuel distribution.

7/
Now a Russian cistern fuel train in the occupied Donetsk City railway marshaling yard supporting the fuel resupply of RuAF Avdiivka Offensive has been destroyed with much collateral heat damage to the rail infrastructure there.

8/
This will reduce for a week or more the rate at which Russia can expend AFV's at Avdiivka for a lack of means to distribute increasingly interdicted South Russia fuel stocks.

9/
RuAF fuel distribution will be getting far worse along the Dnipro now that Ukraine has FPV drones reaching up to 22 km.

AFU will get more battlefield return on investment isolating the Dnipro river line with these new 22km range FPV.

AFU knows this

10/
This AFU fuel interdiction campaign is affecting the fight for #Krynky

RuAF are using Light trucks & IFV's in lieu tanks.

That spells the effects of a successful AFU fuel interdiction campaign, in progress.


11/11 End

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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 30
This @RealCynicalFox post is correct⬇️

A comparison of the US Army fighting the Germans in Aachen and Japanese in Manila are instructive in this regard.

1/
See:

"Knock 'em All Down:" The Reduction of Aachen, October 1944
Christopher R. Gabel, Ph.D.

"The battalion's catchphrase for this operation was "Knock 'em all down."  There was no attempt to avoid collateral damage; in fact, the troops displayed ...
2/
 globalsecurity.org/military/libra…
Image
...a degree of enthusiasm in wrecking a German city."

Warfare with the Japanese in buildings or caves was a form of civil engineering with direct and indirect fire high explosive.  

You don't remove the enemy from the terrain.

3/ Image
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 29
Gosh,

The level of threat ignorance and institutional delusion here is just awe inspiring.

BLUF:
When it comes to procuring electronic attack (EA) jamming systems. US Army leadership has the same level of competence as a young man who can't get laid in a wh*rehouse with a...
1/ Image
...pocket full of $100 bills and condoms.

Col. Jeffrey Church laid those facts out in the following article:

Army Wrestles With SIGINT vs. EW
By SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR.
on July 31, 2018 at 6:33 PM

2/ breakingdefense.com/2018/07/army-w…
Image
The US Army's dysfunctional E.A. procurement structure that Col. Church described in 2018 still exists.

In Oct 2023 at the Association of the US Army's (AUSA's) annual symposium, US Army General Randy George told reporters of the US Army's continued EA procurement dysfunction
3/ Image
Read 15 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 28
There are reasons that I'm concerned about Chinese PLA/CCP satellite coverage of US Navy Carrier groups after the US Defense Department ordered a THAAD battery to the Middle East.

1/
Very good reasons having to do with the possibility of Chinese anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) tech being on Iranian/Houthi medium range ballistic missiles.

2/
When you look at the outline of a Chinese solid fuel ASBM (left).

And then a Toufan (Iranian Ghadr) medium-range ballistic missile. (right).

It makes you think about Chinese technology transfers to Iran and go🤨🤔😱

3/3 End
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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 28
Interesting claims about the BMPT, a light turret w/o the '125mm autoloader of death' means a BMPT is a lot tougher to kill.

It's still Russian arms show marketing.

A US Javelin in top attack mode or a AFU Stugna will have this vehicle design (diagram⬇️) for a light snack
1/5
Image
The battlefield vulnerability of the BMPT is easily proven.

There are visuals of a BMPT being engaged by Ukrainian 152mm/155mm artillery shells showing it to be as vulnerable as any other ex-Soviet tank design to modern weapons.

2/5
There are visuals of a T-72 becoming a Stugna light snack.

3/5
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 28
Well, this:

"Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen. They have the new Toufan (Iranian Ghadr) medium-range ballistic missile"

Explains the movement of the US Army THAAD battery to the Mid-East.

1/
Image
I am really hoping I'm wrong about this prediction of mine regarding THAAD being there to protect US Carriers from Chinese tech anti-ship guided warheads on the Toufan (Iranian Ghadr).

Because if there are Chinese tech ASBM warheads...

2/
Image
...will there be Chinese satellite surveillance spotting for an Houthi ASBM warhead equipped Toufan/Ghadr?🤨🤔😱

3/3 End

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Read 4 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Oct 27
The @UKikaski account brings up a good point here that the Russian S-400 SAM went after the biggest radar target, ATACMS the rocket motor, and not the cloud of M74 APAM bomblets it dispensed

The S-400 has some of the issues US Army Patriot had in 1991 & other unique to ATACMS
1/
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There are reasons for this.

The cloud of M74 explosive fragmentation death covers up to a square kilometer of area in an oval or circular shape depending on missile trajectory and speed of rotation at the moment of dispensing.

The larger the intended area of coverage...
2/
...the higher the altitude this happens.

The ATACMS being a highly non-ballistic missile target means the S-400 cannot really get a good reciprocal intercept track until the ATACMS trajectory settles down for warhead dispensing.

To get a S-400 hit before ATACMS warhead
3/
Read 22 tweets

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