This is a very complicated situation, involving multiple sides with intertwining relationships.
So who's fighting whom, which side is China supporting?
It's China's version of the drug Cartel south of the border
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This conflict is mainly fought in the Kokang (green) region, on the borders between China and Myanmar.
There are 3 sides to this conflict:
🔸Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)
VS
🔸Myanmar's Military (Tatmadaw)
Allied with
🔸Kokang Local Forces
📝Both MNDAA and Kokang Forces are ethnic Han Chinese.
MNDAA split from the Myanmar Communist Forces in 1989, founded by Peng Jiasheng (pic below)
In 2009, MNDAA rules Kokang's capital Laukkaing.
A splinter group betrayed Peng and the MNDAA as the Tatmadaw attacked Laukkaing.
The splinter group worked with the Tatmadaw to drive the MNDAA out of the city of Laukkaing.
They later formed 3 branches of the Kokang Local Forces, controlled by 3 families.
The first and most powerful are the Kokang Militia controlled by the Bai clan.
Headed by Bai Suocheng
The 2nd branch is the Kokang Police Battalion.
Controlled by the Ming clan.
Ming Guoan (left) was in command, but he recently suffered a serious injury while horse-riding🐎 on the streets of Laukkaing.
So his younger brother Ming Guangcai (right) assumed command.
The 3rd branch is the Border Guard Battalion, overseen by the Wei clan.
Wei San as the head of the Border Inspection Committee that controls the Border Guard Battalion.
Other families have interests in different industries, from Mining to Gambling to Prostitution to Telescamming.
These 3 clans wields the gun, I'll call them Kokang Militia for simplicity
Kokang is just the Northern periphery of the larger Shan Autonomous State, which contains anther autonomous State called Wa State(Red).
All of them are involved in drug trafficking (less so now) and telescamming(until very recently)
Wa State is another interesting faction, it's entire government structure were copied from China.
The Party Leads the State and Military.
Even their congress building took hints from the one in Beijing.
Wa State is led by Bao Youxiang, used to be a drug smuggler.
Wa State is the best administered state, with the most financial muscle, they also cooperate closely with China, to more or less resolve the drug epidemic on the border.
Wa State is officially neutral in this conflict
MNDAA, Kokang Militia, Wa State, they are all vying favor from China.
The Myanmar's military, Tatmadaw that has a ceasefire with Wa State and is allied with Kokang militias, also needs China.
China's official position is to avoid conflict, and negotiate a power sharing structure.
MNDAA, Kokang Militia and Wa State are all ethnic Han Chinese, we can't really betray any sides.
🔸Wa State is the good-natured elder son.
🔸Kokang is the son hanging with the wrong crowd
And MNDAA is the rebellious son with a sense of righteousness.
After Peng Jiasheng's death, the command of MNDAA was passed to his son, Peng Deren
MNDAA follows the party and military structure of China.
Although they are no longer communists, they still have many iconographies from China.
Before 2009, Peng clan struck hard against illicit drug in Northern Myanmar
Winning praises from local Chinese citizens on the border
In the 2023 offensive, they also listed the eradication of telescamming from Kokang as one of their goals.
Along with driving out the Tatmadaw and regaining the control of Kokang.
The announcement of eradicating telescamming was a propaganda coup for them.
Chinese netizens cheered for them, some even organized donations.
This is because the telescamming industry were on par with the Mexican Cartel in terms of brutality.
They would lure people from mainland China and Taiwan with promises of very high salary.
After they arrived..
They are forced to be trained in how to scam people through online and telephone.
If you're not very good or don't comply, you'll be tortured or worse.
After which if you are of no use, you'll be sold into the local mines, after you've been exhausted, your organs will be harvested and sold on the black market
This can exist in Northern Myanmar because of its lawlessness
It's under these circumstances the 2023 offensive started
MNDAA has 4 Brigades of troops, all based in the deep forested mountains of Northern Myanmar,
On Oct. 28th the 211 Brigade of MNDAA took control of Chinshwehaw, a land port with China.
As of me writing this thread, battle rages on in Kuktai and Hsenwi in the West, and Monekoe in the North.
The MNDAA strategy is to cut off routes of reinforcement by the Tatmadaw and deal with the Kokang Militias separately.
The goal is the city of Laukkaing (green circle)
221 Brigade have already taken Mang Dong Ba today.
It's only 7 km away from the city of Laukkaing.
But what awaits them in Laukkaing will be a tough battle.
This is the business HQ of a warlord of sort, called Liu Abao (all big businesses have their own private army).
He's been singled out by the MNDAA declaration due to past grudges.
Liu fortified his building accordingly
As the MNDAA brigades marches towards their objectives, numerous Tatmadaw outposts were taken, weapons taken to bolster their firepower.
Graphic images of dead Kokang militias and Police brigades are plenty, which I won't show.
Tatmadaw armors have been destroyed, MNDAA have also learned from recent wars to use commercial drones to drop mortar rounds.
But the numbers is not on MNDAA's side
It's 17,000 Tatmadaw + 6000 Kokang militia
vs
7000 MNDAA.
How will this end? Who knows.
But Kokang authorities are handing over 2000+ telescammers to the Chinese side as MNDAA marches on
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Air defense missile knowledge can be very esoteric.
So here's a thread detailing the capabilities of PLA's major air defense systems.🧵
**This database isn't the normally advertised numbers, the data we've compiled take into account of intercept geometries and their roles.
HQ-9B
🔹Effective range: ~300km
🔹Flight Ceiling: ~30km
🔹Average speed: Mach 4.5+
🔹Mission profile: Long range air defense against aircraft, with some capabilities against short and medium range ballistic missiles in their terminal flight.
Compared to the HQ-9C listed below⬇️; The HQ-9B has a more sustained power flight path, but slower speed, making them very good against maneuvering targets like aircraft.
HQ-9C
🔹Effective range: ~250km
🔹Flight ceiling: ~50km
🔹Average speed: Mach 8+
🔹Mission profile: High-altitude, long range air defense with enhanced capabilities against tactical ballistic missiles.
The missile's slightly slimmer profile compared to HQ-9B gives the C variant much higher speed and longer unpowered cruising range.
The HQ-9C has an estimated burnout velocity of Mach 9.5+, which means it flies fast and burns out quickly, making them less effective against maneuvering aircraft than the B variant, but much more effective against fast moving missiles.
With the introduction of the diesel-electric hybrid tank by China; The ZTZ-100, we now can have sci-fi systems like:
♦️Electromagnetic armor (EFA)
♦️Electrothermal Chemical Gun (ETC gun)
Detailed thread on the future of land/armored warfare developed by China.
🧵
The Type-100 family is made up of serval platforms, including the ZTZ-100 tank and the ZBD-100 fire support vehicle and they are only the start.
There will also be a 50 ton class heavy main battle tank with 125mm electrothermal chemical(ETC) gun with electromagnetic armor (EFA)
We will also have a long range fire support vehicle with vertical launch systems (VLS), capable of storing 20+ long range (10km+) heavy anti-tank missiles.
They together create a network of systems on land, capable of first detection, first shot and first kill.
A thread detailing the speed, range and trajectory of China's anti-ship hypersonic missiles.
Our potential enemies have no way of intercepting these missiles, so it's only fair to let them know, how their billion dollar ship will be destroyed.
🧵
How China's 4th gen tank exemplifies the differences in force design between China and the US?🧵1/8
The US military has global projection needs, their weapons are not specialized to do certain tasks in certain regions against certain enemies. It's a case of jack of all trade.
Meanwhile, China's ZTZ-201 light MBT is specifically designed to fight in Taiwan and the Himalayas.
Taiwan's useful terrain is very flat, dotted with cities and towns that are less than 2km apart.
Hence engagement even for armored/mechanized forces will be that 2km dash over farmlands then into cities.
Short engagements between tanks, if it ever happens, will be from covered position shooting at each other.
This means drones and sensor networks are more important than pure mass in armor.
Comprehensive minute-by-minute illustrative thread, on how the Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian conducts cyclical attack operation.
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The optimal air wing composition:
⏺️24x J-35(green & red), divided into 2 attack waves of 12 each.
⏺️24x J-15T (blue & purple), divided into 2 attack waves of 12 each.
⏺️4x J-15D electronic warfare fighter (orange).
⏺️4x J-600 AEW&C (light blue).
⏺️~10 helicopters (black) for anti-submarine, search and rescue missions.
Cyclical operations are the most common attack mode of aircraft carriers, they divide the carrier airwing into attack waves and launch them with intervals in between.
This allows sustained operation for a long periods of time.
🔹Wave 1 (green J-35 stealth fighters) takes 12 minutes to launch 12x J-35, + 2 min to launch 1x KJ-600 (light blue) + 1 min to launch 2x J-15D EW fighter (orange).
= 15 minutes.
**Catapults can launch aircraft with 30 second intervals.
A comprehensive thread about Chinese aircraft carrier operations.
How do we compare to the US aircraft carrier operations?
For the PLA navy, there are 2 main types of carrier attacks:
🔹Full-deck strike (Full deck sortie).
🔹Cyclical operation.
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Full-deck strike is when we launch all fighters in a single strike package.
Cyclical operation is when we divide the fighters into attack waves, and launch them sequentially.
Full-deck strike is used when you want overwhelming firepower delivered in the initial phase of combat.
However, full-deck strike cannot be sustained for long, since all the fighters would need to land in a short span of time, which puts immense pressure on the deck crew to rearm and refuel.