The war in Myanmar is increasingly worrisome for China.

🔸What's the root cause of the fractious nature of Myanmar?
🔸Why it's almost unsolvable.
🔸What are the worst cause scenarios and how can China respond?

🧵Thread on this complicated situation.
1/12 Separatism in Myanmar are caused by Burmese nationalism. This goes beyond "Democracy vs Junta".

Even Aung San Suu Kyi can be considered a Burmese nationalist.

Due to ethnic and geographic divisions, ethnic minorities in Myanmar were granted with high degrees of autonomy

Mao:
"Strategically show contempt for your enemy. Tactically, respect your enemy"

🔸Strategically dismiss your enemy: Not afraid to initiate a fight.
🔸Tactically respect your enemy: To avoid mishaps, use overwhelming local superiority to crush your enemy

🧵China US context
1/6 Strategically, when the timing is right, China should not be afraid to initiate a fight against the US hegemony.

Tactically, advance with precaution, use our local superiority in the Western Pacific to crush US affiliated forces.

*US affiliated forces, not necessarily US itself

Pro-Taiwan shills wants to target the 3 Gorges Dam, here's why it won't work:

🔸Taiwanese missiles have to fly over 1200km of Chinese territory, brimming with air defenses.
🔸To hit any well defended target, you need saturation attacks, something Taiwan cannot do

Why?
1/6 Taiwan cannot launch a saturation attack because
1️⃣They don't have the numbers to do so.

2️⃣Their missile salvos cannot be sustained, because the PLA will control the skies, any launcher will be destroyed.

Taiwan's missiles are more visible and less mobile than people think⬇️

As a propagandist, this is ineffective🧵

You're asking people to use their imaginations when their "for you page" are filled with images & videos of mutilated bodies of Palestinians.

At this point, Israel might as well go with the unabashed fascist route.

Propaganda lesson
1/6

https://twitter.com/IDF/status/1725914098477531454

Propaganda is to appeal to the most basic and easy to access parts of human emotions, so context matters a lot.

The context:
Israel is in the position of power, so trying to garner sympathies is ineffective.

The J-35 will be one of the most critical system to enter PLA service in the next few years.

Used on CV-16 & CV-17 carriers, it can instantly allow the 2 carriers to contest air superiority in the Western Pacific.

How will the 3 Chinese aircraft carriers be used in war?🧵
1/7 Peacetime deployments of CV-16 and CV-17 may split its airwings into half of J-35 and the other half J-15.

This is because of the higher maintenance requirements of J-35, limiting its SUSTAINED sorties rate.

But J-15s have limited use on a STOBAR (ski-jump) carrier...

This transfer of wealth from Rich to Poor has been in the making for a couple of years.

This is great for China in several ways
🔸Affordable housing means more population growth
🔸More public housing projects drives up consumption
🔸Dual track approach to properties

1/5 One of the biggest obstacle to having more children is the expensive property price.

The building of public housing, expands consumption in design, construction, material, furnishing, appliances and car industries.

China's automated manufacturing plant for turbojet engines, used to power cruise missiles.

From the womb of our Republic, machines of war are born, with enough production capacity to block out the Sun.

An overview on key Chinese air launched cruise missiles🧵
1/8 First, let's kick the enemy doors open.

AKF-98A stealth cruise missiles, along with ballistic missiles, are the perfect spearheads of the first salvo, targeting command & communication.

With a range of ~1000km, they can be launched by any aircraft from a safe stand-off distance

Happy to report that Wei Qingtao of the Wei clan, and Liu Zhengqi of the Liu clan of Kokang are under Chinese custody.

They are 2 key family members of organized criminal groups in Northern Myanmar, involved in murder, torture kidnapping and telescam.

Why is it significant
1/🧵

They sincerely urged their families to give up telescamming and other criminal activities in Northern Myanmar.

Relaying China's resolute actions taken to eliminate organized crime in Northern Myanmar.

All of this happened as MNDAA troops marches towards the capital of Kokang.

With China's new wheeled infantry fighting vehicle coming into service.

It might be interesting to talk about the future of light mechanized infantry of the PLA.

1/7🧵 The new wheeled IFV comes with an unmanned turret, armed with a new 30mm autocannon + 12.7 coaxial machine gun.

Interesting to note, is that the autocannon does no have barrel reinforcement, indicating better stability when firing

It has a 4x built-in anti-tank missile launcher

Why Israel military doctrine is inherently genocidal.🧵

It's easy to just label Israel evil for what they've done to Gaza.
But, Israel's genocide doctrine gives a more compelling explanation for their war crimes.

How Is their genocidal doctrine conducted?
And Is it working?
1/8 The Israeli military doctrine is built around:
"Effects-Based Operations" or EBO.

EBO is to organize warfare by looking at the "Effects" you want to achieve.

Then through the use of Shock and Awe to achieve the desired Effects WITHOUT engaging in attritional ground battles.

Myth-busting Israel Defense Force🧵

Many have seen the video of Hama fighters attacking Israeli tanks from point blank range.

Now another video emerged showing Hamas fighters attacking a Namer APC.

Again, with no supporting Israeli infantry in sight, why is that?
1/8 To understand the current Israeli urban warfare doctrine you have to look to where it came from.

All the major conflicts Israel have fought in the past were quick, high intensity wars, fought in open terrain.

From the Sinai to the Golan Heights.

Her name was "Little Goldy".

Beijing, 21st of November 1949, a month after the establishment of the People's Republic of China, the central government banned prostitution.

She was among the tens of thousands rescued from sexual enslavement, at the time she was only 12.
1/🧵 Before 1949, prostitution was legal if the legal documents are signed and the prostitutes were registered.

Below was a real document for prostitution registration from 1946:

Written by the brothel owner, with the red finger print of the prostitute as signature

⚡The war in Myanmar have reached China's borders⚡

This is a very complicated situation, involving multiple sides with intertwining relationships.
So who's fighting whom, which side is China supporting?

It's China's version of the drug Cartel south of the border
1/🧵 This conflict is mainly fought in the Kokang (green) region, on the borders between China and Myanmar.

There are 3 sides to this conflict:
🔸Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)

VS

🔸Myanmar's Military (Tatmadaw)
Allied with
🔸Kokang Local Forces

🗣️Debate session; Topic:

In the context of the Israel Palestine war, does might makes right?

The most supported opinion was: Yes, yes it does.
(Your opinions are most welcomed)
1/🧵 To amalgamate the various talking points from the affirmative (Yes) side:

Empirical evidence suggest that our current global order, led by the US is might makes right.

This is supported by the numerous conflicts of the 21st century, where blatant lies were used to justify them

The bombing of Gaza by Israel is not about destroying Hamas targets, they are leveling entire neighborhoods to pave the way for a ground invasion.

Here's what Israel might do:

Israeli bombings are concentrated on the northern corners of Gaza
1/🧵 The longer Israel delays its ground invasion, the less support they can muster from their allies in the West.

From my observation, this delay have already forced Israel to limit the scope of the invasion, they lack the diplomatic support and military capabilities to occupy Gaza

⚡Look pass the propaganda of Israel⚡

The decisive factor of the IDF have always been its air force, NOT the conscript filled ground force.

The "invincibility" of the Israeli ground force is nothing but a myth.

On top of that, the Israeli military has a corruption problem
1/5 Conscription allows unscrupulous people into your ranks.

Combined with low pay, the IDF has a serious problem with soldiers stealing equipment and selling it on the black market.

In fact, I won't be surprised if some of Hamas' weapons can be traced back to stolen IDF equipment.

Short🧵on how Huawei broke the chip sanctions.

The key: its investment arm, Habo Investment.
It has stakes in 85 companies involved in the chip manufacturing sector.

This info was from May 2023, before the release of Kirin 9000S, so logic chip was hidden under "Others".

1/6 After the start of the tech war, the US used state power to sanction Huawei, a private company.

Huawei is a Chinese champion company

So the Chinese state power also started backing Huawei, specifically its investment arm, Habo Investment

Huawei has introduced the Pangu AI city management system.

The conference was attended by mayors from over 100 cities.

The Pangu AI model will become the foundation of smart cities.
Pangu AI will:
🔸Create an IoT connected city.
🔸Using Pangu AI to automate city management.
1/5 In Shanghai, pilot projects have already created a digital version of the city, where each individual building can be managed through the help of Pangu AI.

Different sensors and cameras will become sensory organs of the smart city.

🧵What's the purpose of India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor?

China's Belt and Road Initiative were set up to:
🔸Export some of our excess capacity in construction
🔸By pass the Malacca Strait, which the US controls, for now.

India has none of these concerns or needs
1/7 🔸Logically, this project makes no sense:

The capabilities of Indian and US in building infrastructure aside.

Why can't India just use the existing Suez Canal and the MUCH cheaper sea transport?
You don't even need to build anything.

Why do you have to switch to rail?

🧵China's twin spindle gear grinding machine, used to manufacture high precision gear for all sorts of machinery.

This machine can determine the industrial capability of a country.
In the age of automation, developing countries have fewer chance to catch up.

Here's why
1/7 The grinding machines mentioned above are made by a company called Qinchuan.

They use it to make the most critical component in an industrial robot;

The RV reducers, this component determines the repeated accuracy of the robot, it can be 36% of the total cost of the robot

China's fast pace growth have made it look easy.

Just because you have an abundance of cheap labor, doesn't mean you can replicate China's growth.

With the exception of China+ Asian Tigers+ former Soviet EU countries, no country have became industrialized in recent decades
1/🧵 China, 4 Asian Tigers and post Soviet EU economies all have different reasons for their success, NONE of which applies to India

🔸4 Asian Tigers have small population, highly urbanized and easy to industrialize