Thread by @zhao_dashuai

⚡The war in Myanmar have reached China's borders⚡

This is a very complicated situation, involving multiple sides with intertwining relationships.
So who's fighting whom, which side is China supporting?

It's China's version of the drug Cartel south of the border
1/🧵

This conflict is mainly fought in the Kokang (green) region, on the borders between China and Myanmar.

There are 3 sides to this conflict:
🔸Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA)

VS

🔸Myanmar's Military (Tatmadaw)
Allied with
🔸Kokang Local Forces

📝Both MNDAA and Kokang Forces are ethnic Han Chinese.

MNDAA split from the Myanmar Communist Forces in 1989, founded by Peng Jiasheng (pic below)

In 2009, MNDAA rules Kokang's capital Laukkaing.

A splinter group betrayed Peng and the MNDAA as the Tatmadaw attacked Laukkaing.

The splinter group worked with the Tatmadaw to drive the MNDAA out of the city of Laukkaing.

They later formed 3 branches of the Kokang Local Forces, controlled by 3 families.

The first and most powerful are the Kokang Militia controlled by the Bai clan.

Headed by Bai Suocheng

The 2nd branch is the Kokang Police Battalion.
Controlled by the Ming clan.

Ming Guoan (left) was in command, but he recently suffered a serious injury while horse-riding🐎 on the streets of Laukkaing.

So his younger brother Ming Guangcai (right) assumed command.

The 3rd branch is the Border Guard Battalion, overseen by the Wei clan.

Wei San as the head of the Border Inspection Committee that controls the Border Guard Battalion.

Other families have interests in different industries, from Mining to Gambling to Prostitution to Telescamming.

These 3 clans wields the gun, I'll call them Kokang Militia for simplicity

(Kokang Militia left, Kokang Police Battalion top right, Border Guard Battalion bot right)

Northern Myanmar is a lot bigger than Kokang.

Kokang is just the Northern periphery of the larger Shan Autonomous State, which contains anther autonomous State called Wa State(Red).

All of them are involved in drug trafficking (less so now) and telescamming(until very recently)

Wa State is another interesting faction, it's entire government structure were copied from China.

The Party Leads the State and Military.

Even their congress building took hints from the one in Beijing.

Wa State is led by Bao Youxiang, used to be a drug smuggler.

Wa State is the best administered state, with the most financial muscle, they also cooperate closely with China, to more or less resolve the drug epidemic on the border.

Wa State is officially neutral in this conflict

MNDAA, Kokang Militia, Wa State, they are all vying favor from China.

The Myanmar's military, Tatmadaw that has a ceasefire with Wa State and is allied with Kokang militias, also needs China.

China's official position is to avoid conflict, and negotiate a power sharing structure.

MNDAA, Kokang Militia and Wa State are all ethnic Han Chinese, we can't really betray any sides.

🔸Wa State is the good-natured elder son.
🔸Kokang is the son hanging with the wrong crowd

And MNDAA is the rebellious son with a sense of righteousness.

After Peng Jiasheng's death, the command of MNDAA was passed to his son, Peng Deren

MNDAA follows the party and military structure of China.

Although they are no longer communists, they still have many iconographies from China.

Before 2009, Peng clan struck hard against illicit drug in Northern Myanmar

Winning praises from local Chinese citizens on the border

In the 2023 offensive, they also listed the eradication of telescamming from Kokang as one of their goals.

Along with driving out the Tatmadaw and regaining the control of Kokang.

The announcement of eradicating telescamming was a propaganda coup for them.

Chinese netizens cheered for them, some even organized donations.

This is because the telescamming industry were on par with the Mexican Cartel in terms of brutality.

They would lure people from mainland China and Taiwan with promises of very high salary.

After they arrived..

They are forced to be trained in how to scam people through online and telephone.

If you're not very good or don't comply, you'll be tortured or worse.

After which if you are of no use, you'll be sold into the local mines, after you've been exhausted, your organs will be harvested and sold on the black market

This can exist in Northern Myanmar because of its lawlessness

It's under these circumstances the 2023 offensive started

MNDAA has 4 Brigades of troops, all based in the deep forested mountains of Northern Myanmar,

On Oct. 28th the 211 Brigade of MNDAA took control of Chinshwehaw, a land port with China.

As of me writing this thread, battle rages on in Kuktai and Hsenwi in the West, and Monekoe in the North.

The MNDAA strategy is to cut off routes of reinforcement by the Tatmadaw and deal with the Kokang Militias separately.

The goal is the city of Laukkaing (green circle)

221 Brigade have already taken Mang Dong Ba today.

It's only 7 km away from the city of Laukkaing.

But what awaits them in Laukkaing will be a tough battle.

This is the business HQ of a warlord of sort, called Liu Abao (all big businesses have their own private army).

He's been singled out by the MNDAA declaration due to past grudges.

Liu fortified his building accordingly

As the MNDAA brigades marches towards their objectives, numerous Tatmadaw outposts were taken, weapons taken to bolster their firepower.

Graphic images of dead Kokang militias and Police brigades are plenty, which I won't show.

Tatmadaw armors have been destroyed, MNDAA have also learned from recent wars to use commercial drones to drop mortar rounds.

But the numbers is not on MNDAA's side

It's 17,000 Tatmadaw + 6000 Kokang militia
vs
7000 MNDAA.

How will this end? Who knows.

But Kokang authorities are handing over 2000+ telescammers to the Chinese side as MNDAA marches on