Thread by @_CatintheHat

EXCESS DEATHS IN ENGLAND, a thread 🧵

The chart below shows the ratio of registered deaths to expected deaths in England by age group since the start of this year.
(Source: OHID).

The % increase in excess deaths above the baseline in younger age groups is quite staggering.

What’s interesting about this analysis is that OHID still use the 5 year PRE-pandemic mortality rate (2015-2019) to form their baseline…

(Unlike many other excess death analyses, eg. ONS, which now incorporate pandemic years into the baseline to normalise excess deaths).

Compared to the 5 year PRE-pandemic baseline, the % increase in registered deaths versus expected deaths so far this year is:

📍0-24 yrs: ⬆️ 11%
📍25-49 yrs: ⬆️ 10%
📍50-64 yrs: ⬆️ 14%

Excess deaths in these younger age groups are SIGNIFICANTLY above the pre-pandemic norm.

*Absolute* numbers of excess deaths in younger age groups are, of course, lower than for older age groups (>65) because younger people are far less likely to die.

But it’s that % increase in deaths above the pre-pandemic norm which tells the true story of the impact of Covid…

Is Covid to blame for *all* of these excess deaths?

Maybe. Maybe not.

There’s significantly reduced Covid testing in hospitals these days (no routine testing) so we know that both Covid hospitalisations and deaths are almost certainly underestimating the true figures.

We also know that Covid can cause significant long-term sequelae which may not always be linked back to a previous infection.

For example, a recent study by the BHF found that people who caught Covid were 5x more likely to die from heart disease in the 18 months after infection.

And, as this BBC article acknowledges, it’s very likely that at least some of the deaths which were (or will be) hastened by the after-effects of a Covid infection will *not* end up being linked to the virus when the death is registered.

bbc.co.uk/news/health-64…

It’s not just the heart though…

Covid can also damage your lungs, heart, brain, kidneys & basically every other organ of your body.

Even if it doesn’t kill you, it can leave you with serious long-term health problems.

You just might not know it yet.

nature.com/articles/s4157…

According to the CDC, around 1 in 5 adults now have a health condition that may be related to their previous Covid infection.

That’s 20% of us!

And with each new infection, that % will just keep rising and rising…

The CDC even added an update to their guidance for certifying ‘Deaths due to Covid’, making it clear that clinicians should bear in mind that Covid “can have lasting effects on nearly every organ of the body for weeks, months & potentially years after infection.”

Now let’s turn our attention to children…

The government have repeatedly told us that “Covid is mild in children”, so many aren’t even aware it’s a risk to kids.

Thankfully children rarely die from anything, so the absolute numbers are much smaller than for the elderly…

…but children are still tragically dying from Covid every month.

In fact, Covid kills more children annually than any other vaccine preventable disease, including flu, measles, mumps, rubella & varicella.

Here’s the excess deaths in 0-24 year olds compared to the 5-year pre-pandemic baseline since March 2020 (start of pandemic).

It’s clear to see that the situation in terms of excess deaths in this age group has got WORSE, not better…

A recent study lead by researchers at the University of Oxford showed that, between 2021 and 2022, Covid was the NUMBER ONE cause of death in children (aged 0-19 years) from infectious or respiratory diseases in the US.

ox.ac.uk/news/2023-01-3…

So for anyone still labouring under the impression that deaths from Covid are only a problem for the elderly, perhaps it’s time for a rethink…

These percentage increases in excess mortality above the PRE-pandemic baseline for the younger age groups are extremely worrying.

But it’s also important to realise that death isn’t the only bad outcome.

All too often we look at Covid in black & white terms.

Dead or alive.

But what about all the shades of grey?

Those who didn’t die but never fully recovered from the longer-term repercussions of Covid.

You might not even realise that Long Covid is still a problem as it hardly gets mentioned in the media.

The government aren’t even tracking Long Covid prevalence any more.

The last report (March 2023) estimated that nearly 2 MILLION people were suffering from Long Covid in 🇬🇧.

62,000 of those suffering from Long Covid are tragically children.

Unless you’ve experienced it yourself, it’s hard to comprehend the devastating impact Long Covid can have on young people & their families.

Please spare a few minutes to watch this report from ITV News.

👇🏻

https://twitter.com/itvmeridian/status/1640386542509215750

There may no longer be any official data on Long Covid prevalence, but there are still ways to see it…

1/ The number of workers taking sick leave has just reached the highest point in over a decade, with Long Covid commonly cited as a contributing factor.

2/ The number of people dropping out of work altogether due to long term sickness continues to soar to a new record high with each passing month and shows no sign of slowing…

3/ The number of new claims for Personal Independence Payments (benefit payments for those with a long-term physical or mental health condition) just reached the highest level since PIP began.

Nearly QUARTER OF A MILLION people made a new PIP claim in Q2 2023.

Every indicator we look at is telling the same story.

Covid is continuing to kill & disable people.

But the thing is, it’s happening quietly, little by little, mostly behind closed doors.

No one wants to acknowledge it.

It’s far easier to believe the comforting lies.

As this recent study by @Daltmann10 et al concluded:

“The oncoming burden of Long Covid is so large as to be unfathomable.”

It’s far easier to brush it under the carpet and pretend it’s not happening.

But that’s just not sustainable in the long term.

https://twitter.com/_catinthehat/status/1679102661134524416

And with no mitigations left to reduce the spread of Covid, we keep getting infected over & over again… once, twice, maybe even 3 times a year.

Each infection is a game of Covid Roulette as to whether you’ll end up with long-term health repercussions.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

We need to face up to the inconvenient truth that Covid is causing harm to us all, whether we know it or not (yet).

Covid has fundamentally changed our world, so we’ve got to evolve & adapt too…

…before it’s too late.

H/t @DavidSteadson