Thread by @gbrumfiel

One week into the ground war in Gaza, here's what experts told me based on OSINT:

✅ The encirclement of Gaza City is a precursor for operations inside the city itself.

✅ The IDF has prob. not committed enough troops for a full occupation of GC.

...🧵

npr.org/2023/11/03/121…

🟡 Israeli troops appear to be operating under rules of engagement that allow significant civilian casualties.

❌ Some believe the willingness of Israel to tolerate high civilian casualties will be the "Achilles heel" of the entire operation.

npr.org/2023/11/03/121…

First, it's been obvious for days that Israeli forces have been working to cut off Gaza.

In a press conference last night, the Israel Defense Forces announced that encirclement was now complete.

Encirclement is a pretty standard tactic ahead of operations in urban combat, says Sean MacFarland, a retired 3⭐️ who oversaw the fight against ISIS in Iraq and Syria.

"They're setting the conditions to go into the city, but first they have to close off the perimeter," he says.

But several experts, including MacFarland and @SethGJones, told me they doubt that Israel is planning a full occupation, or even a house by house sweep of the city.

That's based in part on @planet imagery that shows a Brigade-level troop presence, not nearly enough to hold GC.

It's also interesting to note that there haven't been efforts, thus far, to create operating bases.

Here's a fresh @planet image from Oct 31 showing forces near Salah Al Din road.

Note that they've created some parking areas and berms, but that's about it.

Of course that could change change, especially since several Hamas videos seem to show these positions are vulnerable to ambush and drone attacks.

(I'm not linking because this video is graphic. Follow @leventkemaI if you want to see it and a lot of other interesting stuff).

Anyway, bottom line there are few signs that Israel is going to try and occupy Gaza City or even conduct a long campaign there.

Next thing to note is how they're fighting. It's pretty clear that Israeli forces' rules of engagement are very permissive...

One piece of evidence is this video from Salah Al Din street. A tank opens fire on a civilian vehicle.

Now there's no way to know who was in that vehicle, but the engagement happened very quickly as the vehicle appeared to be turning around.

https://x.com/AuroraIntel/status/1718900377280512176?s=20

The strike a few days ago on the Jabalia refugee camp is another example. Israel in the past has warned civilians ahead of striking targets, but this was swift and deadly.

@marcgarlasco told me that "Israel is playing pretty fast and loose with the laws of war right now."

@marcgarlasco The UN has started echoing those concerns. The building in Jabalia may have been a legitimate military target, but Israel is required by law to weigh whether the civilian casualties are "proportionate" to the value of the target.

https://x.com/UNHumanRights/status/1720407352933785852?s=20

@alexplitsas told me that mounting civilian death and suffering may create the greatest barrier to Israel reaching its stated goal of "destroying Hamas".

"I think the humanitarian conditions on the ground are an Achilles heel for the operation," he says.
npr.org/2023/11/03/121…