Thread by @spartyflyboy

Negotiating with Russia - again?🧵
Well, why repeat a mistake when you can make one that's much worse?
Worse, because the global threat situation has changed and Russia continues to attack NATO infrastructure. Without any repercussion or deterrent.
Unity seems to be one issue.
1/

https://twitter.com/Apex_WW/status/1720607885736935852

Let's leave aside, that arguably Russia is represented within NATO by Hungary's Orban.
There is one more core issue within the 50 nations supporting Ukraine. They are presumably all powers dedicated to preserve the status quo, but most have a different outlook what that means.
2/

Even important UA allies dissent:
Germany: Scholz appears to hope for "normalization" with Russia and go back to biz asap, break "US Hegemony" -> "Multipolar World".
Baltic, SE, FIN, PL: Revisionist, reign in Russia until she poses only a manageable threat to her neighbours.
3/

USA: Desire to limit escalation, cautious of conflict spreading & NATO resolve being tested. Absence of a clear China policy meshes with a desire for a stable Russia.
In general there seems to be a total absence of ideas how to deal with globally expanding revisionism.
4/

This lack of unity & vision is a major factor why even some key players find it hard to express that "Ukraine must win" or define "victory" euphemistically in a way that Ukraine, not Russia, has to concede territory and/or impose limits on their future foreign policy options.
5/

A "victory deal" in which Ukraine will (again) be forced to extensive concessions would yet also reflect on the alliance supporting Ukraine.
It will show inability to deal with aggressive revisionism and serve as invitation to exploit this in the future.
The world is watching.
6/

Russia wages an intense information war to destabilize our western liberal democracies. Weak support for Ukraine, allowing Russia an off ramp without humiliation will be disastrous for our societies already under Russian attack.
Ukraine supporters will feel core western values
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have been betrayed & have growing doubts about the promise of western defensive alliances.
Russia's friends & supporters will feel emboldened in their goal to replace democracy with Russian friendly autocracies.
If Russia isn't defeated Putin will retain his strong man appeal.
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For the sake of our own democracies we need Russian revisionism to fail at a scale as grandiose as Russian imperial ambitions.
Only then will we be able to effectively deal with autocratic revisionist movements in our own societies and with other revisionist actors like China.
9/

Russian internal stability can't be of concern in regards to her war on Ukraine. Any deterrence of future revisionist ambitions/aggression will need a clear & painful humiliation for Russia.
This will automatically lead to internal stress if there is to be any accountability.
10/

It simply isn't our job to sort out the mess Russia got herself into. Helping with off ramps will only lead to Russians blaming those trying to help. Our job is to help Ukraine stop Russia.
It also would be a travesty to stabilize Russia while they attack us with info war.
11/

Ukraine needs to win in 2024. Ukraine could have won in 2023 were it not for western lack of joint vision, unity and reluctance to deter Russia.
The question of Ukraine's victory is married to the question of our values, what world we want to live in.
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Without unity and shared vision of a status quo we vow to protect from revisionist actors we will remain stuck in indecisiveness, doing something but not enough.
2024 Ukraine needs to win or Russia might win by sufficiently destabilizing our political systems like in Slovakia
13/

Russia knows of our internal vulnerability. Their intelligence apparatus stoked it, feeds it with hybrid war and grooming a polycrisis.
And if one of our western analysts says that Putin is banking on "war fatigue" in the west, they refer to the success of Russian info war.
14/

It's high time that we move on from a purely Machiavellian understanding of international relations and ask ourselves what values, what principles and what sort of minimal status quo we want to preserve.
This conversation has to come fast, and it needs Ukraine to win. 2024.
15/

Thanks for reading.
Here are some great folk to follow for insight in the matter (and who I shamelessly beg for criticism of this thread).
@KeirGiles
@NTenzer
@Sasha_Etkind
@andrewmichta
@IlvesToomas
@EHunterChristie