Thread by @SamRamani2

Ukraine's counter-offensive has been panned as a failure

The truth is more complex

Some thoughts on the successes and failures of Ukraine's counter-offensive /1

SUCCESS: Preventing Russian Gains

Ukraine has carried out offensive operations in the south and east, while preventing notable Russian gains

Fortifications and mines caused Russia to lose 200 armoured vehicles and 1000s of personnel in Avdiivka alone over 3 weeks

SUCCESS: Degrading Russia's Black Sea Fleet

Ukrainian strikes on the Black Sea Fleet HQ, creation of an alternative grain corridor and creation of insecurity around Russian ships in Sevastopol and Crimea is a big success

It reduces sea-borne Kalibr strikes on Ukrainian cities

SUCCESS: Upgraded Air Defences

Ukraine has secured NATO-class systems like IRIS-Ts and Patriots to blunt Russia's Shahed drone barrages in Kyiv

There is more work to be done on Black Sea port cities but mass electrical line barrages like last winter haven't yet happened

SUCCESS: Upgrading Air Power and Long-Range missiles

ATACMS, Storm Shadows and SCALPS arrived, while F-16s are on their way

Ukraine is also stepping up domestic production, which can strike deeper into Russian territory proper

FAILURE: Territorial Gains

The obvious one: Ukraine wanted Melitopol, so it could disrupt Russian supply chains, and make real progress in Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and outside Bakhmut

It downsized its goal to Tokmak, which has been partially successful, but battle lines are frozen

FAILURE: The Drone War

In terms of production, Ukraine is suffering in the drone war. Bayraktars are not the game-changers they once were, Russia is mass producing Geran-2s as Iranian Shaheds

There is still hope for the Ukraine-made Shark drone and for a winter drone barrage

FAILURE: Stopping Russia's Production Lines

Sanctions have not stopped semiconductors from entering Russia and precision missiles are built

North Korea's supply of 1 million artillery shells plus accelerated domestic production shows Russia is in this war for the long haul

FAILURE: Securing Long-Term Shell and Ammunition Supplies

Ukraine has depleted the influx of shells and ammunition it received and it is unclear how fast it will be replaced

Sluggish EU production is to blame but recent Dutch and German deals provide hope

MIXED: GPS Jamming

Russia's GPS jamming restricted the efficacy of HIMARS by May 2023 and fuelled fears that longer-range missiles could be restricted

But Ukraine used a guided bomb to destroy a GPS jammer recently, which shows a technological gain

MIXED: Capitalizing on Russia's Divisions

While Prigozhin and Shoigu clashes might have thwarted Russian gains in Donetsk, the Wagner mutiny did not destroy cohesion

With Tantsyura/Reznikov ousted, Syrski under attack and election controversies, Ukraine has divisions of its own

MIXED: Rallying Non-Western Support

Ukraine's Global Peace summit idea and Jeddah talks have gained some traction, as have African criticisms of Russia's grain deal suspension

But China's no show in Malta and stagnant UNGA voting patterns reveal that Ukraine has a lot to do

So Ukraine's counter-offensive did not reach lofty expectations, as Russia's fortifications were stronger and sophisticated technology was delayed

But it was not a complete failure by any means and Ukraine still has many cards to play heading into 2024 /END