Thread by @JimmyThomist

As promised, here's my audit of Oryx's equipment loss tracking.

Oryx is well touted by institutional and mainstream media sources for an independent and open source verifiable low end accounting of equipment losses in the Ukraine War.

The Russian losses page links to images for over 13,000 lost pieces of equipment, so auditing the site as a whole isn't viable.

Instead I chose the first 10 entries, which took me about 1/4 through the T-62M losses.

The results indicate Oryx is a very poor source indeed.

To be a good & independently verifiable source it should show:
- The image's metadata
- The geolocation & how it was confirmed
- The original source of the image
- The description of the vehicle & status is accurate
- You can confirm the nationality

What were the results?

Ouch

Ukraine war equipment loss tracking is difficult because both sides predominantly use the same equipment. Hence the Russians spray paining letters like Z on their vehicles. This of course is vulnerable to exploitation as with some spray paint you can make anything look Russian.

Reviewing the specific claims:

#1 - 1 Unknown T-54/55 (1, destroyed)

A dramatic video of a T-55 packed with explosives being driven towards a trench and destroyed by a missile prior to arriving.

This is Russian as this is a known tactic of theirs.

Good post overall.

#2 - T-55A Damaged

This image can't be geolocated, is on Oryx's photo account and first appears on the internet in this post, so we have no idea of the source.

The configuration (with a 'cope cage') is probably Russian, but there's otherwise nothing to confirm if it's Russian.

#3 - T62M Destroyed 1

A video showing a grenade sized explosive being dropped from a drone into the open driver's hatch. This is probably Russian due to a Z on the roof.

There is not enough information to geolocate. This is important as the tank does not move or have any signs

of crew activity before or after the grenade explosion. Frankly this looks like drone testing on a firing range with a captured Russian vehicle, but who knows.

Importantly, the video does not show the tank being destroyed. That ordinance would inflict crew casualties and damage,

but there isn't a show of the tank burning and then the turret exploding (about the only good proof that a tank is destroyed rather than damaged).

#4 - T-62M Destroyed 2

The normal issues of not knowing the source, no metadata, no geolocation and no signs the tank is Russian.

The resolution suggests this might be an older photo, so I'm not sure if it's from this conflict.

#5 - T-62M Destroyed 3

This entry will require a whole video. It's a video shoring the aftermath of a Ukrainian attack on Pravdyne on Sept 21, 2022. It's the only entry with enough information to check the geolocation, but that turns out quite badly for Oryx.

In brief:

- The image of a destroyed Russian T-62M is not destroyed but damaged
- The image is from a different battle/location and was added by the uploader
- Oryx records 1 Russian and 5 Ukrainian vehicles lost when there were actually 0 Russian and 12 Ukrainian vehicle losses

#6 - T-62M Destroyed #3

The same issues with not being able to geolocate or confirm the nationality. I was unable to find the original source, though the posting twitter account says the vehicle type is unclear (I agree) and Oryx says its a T-62M.

#7 - T-62M Destroyed 5

Again the normal issues of lacking metadata or clear indications of nationality.

This purports to show a montage of vehicles destroyed by lazer guided 155M shells. Pausing reveals they are missile strikes. More importantly....

All the tank impacts strongly suggest the tank's armour was not penetrated. The first clips show an explosion in the ground near the front and smoke billowing out the back under the hull. The second one shows an explosion on the front Glacis and smoke above the tank. (Eg below)

If the rocket penetrated the hull armour you would expect to see smoke escaping from the top hatches, possibly the hatches blowing off and possibly smoke escaping the barrel (depending if the cannon breach was open)..

#8 - T-62M Destroyed 6

No metadata, source unknown & can't geolocate.

The only proof it's Russian is a crudely spray painted Z on the hull that could have been done post destruction.

The amount of rust indicates the photo was taken at least a few weeks after.

#9 - T-62M Destroyed 7

This is for a vehicle in the background of the same photo. The same applies, except that I can't confirm the tank type or whether there's a Z on the hull.

#10 - T-62M Destroyed 8

No metadata, source unknown & can't geolocate.

No way of knowing if the tank is Russian.

The tank is rusted enough that the date it was hit is unknown.

Unclear if it is destroyed, damaged or abandoned

To sum up, we have one reliable post.

Only one entry has enough information to confirm the geolocation, and almost everything about Oryx's use of that video was false.

Only half showed the underlying source.

9/10 don't tell use the nationality of the vehicle.

So all I can say about 9/10 of the entries is they show images of vehicles taken somewhere, at sometime of either Russian or Ukrainian vehicles. The descriptions of the state are mostly incorrect. For half of them I don't know who posted the photo.

This leaves me to consider three points:
1. All the errors I found confirmed Russian losses beyond what the posted data justified;
2. The mainstream media and social media algorithms have boosted this source enormously during the conflict; and
3. (see below)