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JimmyThomist Profile picture
JimmyThomist
@JimmyThomist
Lawyer, veteran and amateur historian.
Feb 8, 2024 • 16 tweets • 6 min read
An analysis of Russia's Options for a spring Offensive

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The Central Region: Image If you are not familiar with the other instalments please read these posts on

Russia Logistics:

The West Region:

The South Region:

The North Region:


Jan 10, 2024 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Long Form Entry on Russia's logistic system. This is background for a later post about their spring offensive options.

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Here's a generic tactical supply system. Typically a division holds 6 days supply (DOS) across a depth of 40-60 km. Image Tactical logistics is mostly a delivery service. 90% of it is moving supplies forward via trucks.

Above Division level you have operational logistics, which is mostly a warehousing service. They hold about 30-90 DOS. Image
Dec 2, 2023 • 14 tweets • 5 min read
What could a peace deal in the Ukraine war look like? Would it lead to stability or a transition to insurgency?

In my FLOCARK map below I determined there are 3 major East/West defensive lines within Ukraine, anchored on the:

1: Carpathians
2: Dniper River
3: Donets River Image I will assume that Russia invaded Ukraine because:

1. It thought Ukraine was on the path to joining NATO and they wanted a more defensible border
2. They wanted to directly or indirectly control the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine.

There are many other explanations (mostly
Nov 13, 2023 • 21 tweets • 8 min read
A number of people attacked my claim you can only be certain a tank is destroyed if the turret has popped off.

In giving a detailed answer to this question I discovered another issue with OSINT tracking of vehicle losses. They report 2x the expected ratio of destroyed tanks. Image To begin with, armies only use terms like destroyed & damaged at the tactical level. A vehicle is considered destroyed if it cannot be used without being rebuilt (see FM 3-0 below).

In practice this means an AFV with battle damage requiring 3rd line maintenance (higher than Image
Nov 6, 2023 • 22 tweets • 8 min read
As promised, here's my audit of Oryx's equipment loss tracking.

Oryx is well touted by institutional and mainstream media sources for an independent and open source verifiable low end accounting of equipment losses in the Ukraine War.
Image
Image The Russian losses page links to images for over 13,000 lost pieces of equipment, so auditing the site as a whole isn't viable.

Instead I chose the first 10 entries, which took me about 1/4 through the T-62M losses.

The results indicate Oryx is a very poor source indeed. Image
Aug 4, 2023 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
This is correct, but it’s also correct that Col Kurtz was right about what it would have taken to win I’m Vietnam.

I’ve yet to find a historical example of a successful counter-insurgency that didn’t involve crimes against humanity as official policy. To quote Apocalypse Now: don’t get out of the boat unless you’re willing to go all the way.