A FLOCARK map of the India-Pakistan border. A couple of points:
- Pakistan has a lot of mountains, but they are in the western 1/2 of the country and the population centres are in the east where the terrain is open
- Even given the long standing enmity between the countries there are remarkably few cross border roads
- The border rarely follows a natural terrain feature, so it doesn't make sense to defend on the border
- Pakistan's best defensive features in the populated part of the country is a series of rivers

This is the best summary of the problem I’ve seen in a long time. A rational strategy logically applies means to achieve ends.

The ends for into 4 categories:

1. The 90s Free Trade Model
2. Global Empire
3. Regional Empire
4. Fortress North America

https://twitter.com/jdvance/status/1910328905308762374

The 90s free trade model assumes that China and America can live in harmony and prosperity. This is not a serrious proposition within the right anymore.

However, if you see the issue with China as their being an existential threat you will advocate for global empire.

@AuronMacintyre 100%. I will also add an odd dynamic that “Red America” often doesn’t see - Americanization of client states always leads to a political shift leftwards.

One of the major goals of left wing managerialism is to erase national character and distinctiveness. Therefore the political @AuronMacintyre and cultural left is pretty much the same in every country. Therefore the distinctive political, social and cultural aspects of a nation are inherently right wing. This also means the political right in each country is dissimilar. What is right wing in America is what’s rooted

Canada Day Reflections on Great Canadians - Sir Arthur Currie

He was born to a rural poor family (he walked to school on dirt roads without shoes).

He commanded the Canadian Corps during 1918’s 100 Days Offensive, when it was the key formation in defeating the German Army. In the winter of 1917-18 he was pressured to adopt the new British Army divisional structure.

This would have resulting in Canada’s 4 divisions of about 25,000 soldiers becoming 7 divisions of 15,000 soldiers and Currie getting a promotion to 4-star general (modern equivalent).

An analysis of Russia's Options for a spring Offensive

********************

The Central Region: If you are not familiar with the other instalments please read these posts on

Russia Logistics:

The West Region:

The South Region:

The North Region:

https://x.com/JimmyThomist/status/1745124715419558155?s=20

https://x.com/JimmyThomist/status/1745864723008983521?s=20

https://x.com/JimmyThomist/status/1745881175380394194?s=20

https://x.com/JimmyThomist/status/1748473268439339364?s=20

Long Form Entry on Russia's logistic system. This is background for a later post about their spring offensive options.

***********************************
Here's a generic tactical supply system. Typically a division holds 6 days supply (DOS) across a depth of 40-60 km. Tactical logistics is mostly a delivery service. 90% of it is moving supplies forward via trucks.

Above Division level you have operational logistics, which is mostly a warehousing service. They hold about 30-90 DOS.

What could a peace deal in the Ukraine war look like? Would it lead to stability or a transition to insurgency?

In my FLOCARK map below I determined there are 3 major East/West defensive lines within Ukraine, anchored on the:

1: Carpathians
2: Dniper River
3: Donets River I will assume that Russia invaded Ukraine because:

1. It thought Ukraine was on the path to joining NATO and they wanted a more defensible border
2. They wanted to directly or indirectly control the ethnically Russian parts of Ukraine.

There are many other explanations (mostly

A number of people attacked my claim you can only be certain a tank is destroyed if the turret has popped off.

In giving a detailed answer to this question I discovered another issue with OSINT tracking of vehicle losses. They report 2x the expected ratio of destroyed tanks. To begin with, armies only use terms like destroyed & damaged at the tactical level. A vehicle is considered destroyed if it cannot be used without being rebuilt (see FM 3-0 below).

In practice this means an AFV with battle damage requiring 3rd line maintenance (higher than

As promised, here's my audit of Oryx's equipment loss tracking.

Oryx is well touted by institutional and mainstream media sources for an independent and open source verifiable low end accounting of equipment losses in the Ukraine War.

The Russian losses page links to images for over 13,000 lost pieces of equipment, so auditing the site as a whole isn't viable.

Instead I chose the first 10 entries, which took me about 1/4 through the T-62M losses.

The results indicate Oryx is a very poor source indeed.

This is correct, but it’s also correct that Col Kurtz was right about what it would have taken to win I’m Vietnam.

I’ve yet to find a historical example of a successful counter-insurgency that didn’t involve crimes against humanity as official policy.

https://twitter.com/NormfanPjt/status/1649032006754344961

To quote Apocalypse Now: don’t get out of the boat unless you’re willing to go all the way.