A great memo clarifying the facts about US aid to Ukraine, expertly debunking myths with a direct approach. Written by @LukeDCoffey for the US think-tank @HudsonInstitute. Here are the key points from "Fourteen Facts about US Aid to Ukraine."
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- The US is not writing “blank checks” to Ukraine, and most of the money allocated to help Ukraine never leaves the US. About $70 billion of authorized aid for Ukraine stays in the US, backing the top-tier defense industry and generating well-paying jobs in 38 states.
- There has never been more accountability for US military assistance than what is available for Ukraine aid. After Russia's invasion, the US government formed the Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group, with over 160 officials from 20 federal agencies overseeing US aid.
- For a modest amount of money, US aid helps Ukraine dismantle Russia’s armed forces without a single American firing a shot or being shot at. Up to 300,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in Ukraine, and the original invasion force from February 2022 doesn't exist
- A victorious Ukraine means a safer Taiwan. In the words of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, "The security of the Indo-Pacific region is inseparable from European security."
- European stability, which Russia is trying to undermine, affects the American worker. The US and Europe are each other's biggest export markets. In 2022, 45 out of 50 states, including California, the largest single-state economy, shipped more goods to Europe than to China.
- The lessons the US learns from Ukraine will make America stronger in the Indo-Pacific. Supporting Ukraine revealed existing flaws in the American defense industry, which the US is now addressing. Fortunately, these issues came to light when the US was not engaged in a war.
- Ukraine is not a new “forever war.” Ukrainians don't seek or desire US troops to fight Russia. They simply request resources, which the US can readily supply.
- Claims that US aid to Ukraine costs "$900 per American household" and that the proposed aid will add "over $1,000" to the tax burden of "every family of four in America" are highly misleading. These figures mislead since federal income tax is not uniformly applied to households
Kindly share this thread. For the list of sources, visit the website and check out the PDF version.
I'd like to introduce a concise yet important interview with a seasoned Ukrainian company commander, known by the callsign Zmiy (Snake). He's a veteran of the 2014 and 2022 wars and offers direct insights into crucial issues. Strong language ahead.
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1. Hello! Please introduce yourself and briefly tell us about you.
- My name is not important, as during the war I use only the callsign "Snake”. This is my Second Punic War. Between wars, I managed to find myself in the IT field. Right now, I am a company commander.
2. When did the war for Ukraine start for you?
- The war started for me as far back as 2013. I was living the typical life of an average Ukrainian. It was a weekend, and I woke up after a night out and
After extensive research and analysis of North Korean deliveries to Russia using various sources and calculations, we estimate that Russia has received around 2,000 cargo containers containing over half a million artillery shells. The article link is at the end of this 🧵thread:
2/ This estimate, which leans toward the conservative side, suggests that the actual number likely surpasses 500,000. These artillery shells encompass predominantly both 152mm and 122mm calibers.
3/ We measured containers, identified types, gathered data on the crates, and used basic mathematical calculations to arrive at what we think is a reliable estimate. To validate our findings, we applied different approaches to calculations and arrived at nearly identical numbers
Through visual analysis of satellite imagery, our team found Russian military vehicle losses in Avdiivka between October 10 and October 20. The total number exceeded 109, indicating a significant loss of approximately aligning to a brigade-sized force in just ten days.🧵Thread:
2/ The actual count of destroyed vehicles is notably higher. We excluded about a dozen vehicles with low to medium confidence due to inconsistent imagery coverage. In some cases, it was impossible to determine if a vehicle had remained in place for a while or was in motion
3/ All new lost vehicles are indicated by a red square on the imagery, while old losses that were already present at the end of September are marked with a white square.
- Nearly all helicopters have been relocated from the airstrip, with only a few remaining in Luhansk
-Berdyansk Airfield appears to retain approximately six helicopters, which are undergoing some maintenance, likely before their relocation
I can't say with certainty, but it appears they are removing blades for subsequent ground transportation. At least 6 helicopters are irreparably damaged due to fire, 1 is in poor condition, and 1 likely has already been removed, making it challenging to determine its exact state
Adding medium-resolution imagery:
- Orange squares indicate "irreparably damaged" helicopters.
- Yellow square highlights the helicopter in poor condition.
- Green squares represent helicopters undergoing blade removal
- Blue square shows the area with debris and scorch mark
Amid the predominant public focus on the successful ATACMS strike at Berdyansk airfield, our team has also assembled a comprehensive report on the outcomes of a similar strike at Luhansk airport, where numerous Russian attack and transport helicopters are stationed.
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2/ The visual evidence from the Planet Labs imagery at our disposal shows that a minimum of 5 helicopters have experienced varying degrees of damage. There's also a chance that other airfield vehicles have been affected, but the current resolution makes confirmation difficult.
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In the October 18th imagery, scorch marks from explosions are evident on the airport apron, confirming the deployment of the previously reported M-39 ATACMS missile with nearly a thousand anti-personnel and anti-material bomblets.
The Frontelligence Insight team analyzed reports of a successful strike at Berdiansk airport using high-res imagery from September and medium-res imagery from October 17th. The analysis confirmed the strike's success. 🧵Thread:
2/ The official Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) account has officially confirmed the successful execution of Operation "Dragonfly." This operation effectively targeted both Berdyansk and Luhansk Airfields
3/ Our preliminary analysis aligns with the statement from the MoD, indicating that multiple vehicles are likely to be burnt or destroyed. Yet, due to the limited quality of the available imagery, we cannot definitively determine the extent of this damage at this time.