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Nov 7 26 tweets 7 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
The discourse on Ukraine's counter-offensive often oversimplifies Soviet doctrine as rigid mass warfare and NATO- as flexible maneuver warfare.

The truth is far more nuanced, and needed for future discussions.

Thus: Soviet tactical and operational doctrine, a thread.

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To keep things simple, I'll stick to the operational and tactical elements of Soviet doctrine during the late Cold War—the most relevant period for us and Ukraine.

Soviet operations were conducted by Armies and Fronts. Division and below would belong in the realm of tactics
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"Success in small-unit engagements was dependent on combined arms integration, firepower, and maneuver. Moscow taught that ground and air forces, and combat and support units had to work closely together to achieve an effect that was greater than the sum of their parts"

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Soviets prioritized offensive actions, emphasizing concentration of force and firepower through mobility and full mechanization. Their ideal strategy was a strong, early blow to penetrate the enemy's operational depth and disorganize enemy forces.

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"Maneuver first with firepower. Firepower is maneuver"

Any Soviet offensive would start with long-lasting massed fires throughout the enemy depth. In addition to artillery, missile troops and air force assets, would be subordinated directly to the Front and Army commanders.

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Tactical leaders had direct control over their organic fires, but most fire support was highly centralized to maximise effectiveness during the critical early hours of any operation. However, as operations continued this centralization risked coordination problems.

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Air and missile forces would be used to hit enemy command and support elements. Despite this coordination of artillery-, missile- and air forces, the Soviets did not always expect to have air superiority. They expected to operate in contested airspace and relied on anti-air.

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"If maneuver forces must be massed, do so rapidly. Disperse them as soon as possible after the task has been achieved."

The Soviets were acutely aware of the danger of long-range fires. Dispersal and mobility were essential. The Soviets focused on attacking from the move.

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Attacking from the move would both let the Soviets apply ground forces gradually to a battle and bring together a larger force for a breakthrough when needed. They could also quickly exploit tactical and operational breakthroughs before the enemy could effectively react.

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That's not to say that the classic image of armored flotillas heading westwards is not accurate. The Soviets would mass relatively dispersed forces together for tactical engagements. Fast deployment from march formation to rehearsed battle drills was essential.

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While the battle drills were often tactically somewhat limited, Soviet operational commanders enjoyed relative freedom of action. The most important objective for them would be penetrating into enemy depth, and isolating, or surrounding enemy maneuver- and support forces.

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"Maneuver forces should attack the weakest points in enemy defenses. If necessary, create weak points or holes with nuclear or nonnuclear fires. Bypass enemy strongpoints to strike deeply into his rear."

Soviet offensives would attempt to find the path of least resistance.

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Forward recon elements would attempt to find the weakest points in the enemy line, as well as any useable routes for mechanized forces to go around the defensive positions. The Soviets would then attack on multiple axes at once to exert pressure over the whole frontline.

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The job of the first echelon, generally made up of motor rifle formations, was to create a gap in the enemy frontline. Then the second echelon, usually tank formations, would be thrown in to exploit the breakthrough and advance deep into the enemy's operational depth.

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If the Soviet first echelon units failed to dislodge defenders, they would then switch to fixing the enemy in place. The operational commander would then commit the second echelon to more successful axes.

Bypassed positions would be reduced after the 2nd echelon had passed.

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Soviet operations would thus flow rather fluidly, like water around rocks. The high mobility, relative dispersal and echeloned nature of forces meant that the Soviet operational commanders could change the concentration of force, and fires, relatively quickly.

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To ensure the success of these fluid mechanized operations, the Soviets would use "forward detachments" in the early phases of the operation to capture key terrain and disrupt enemy operations. Air assault forces could capture bridges or neutralize enemy command posts.

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"Deceive the enemy. Attack from an unexpected direction at an unexpected time. Use terrain and weather to your advantage"

We may talk too much about "Maskirovka", but deception was essential to Soviet operations. Keeping the main direction a secret was essential for success

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"There must be unity of command, a single commander for any operation... Adhere to the spirit and letter of a plan. If the plan fails, use initiative to accomplish the mission."

As said before, the Soviet command was often rather centralized compared to NATO armies.

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The Soviets did attempt to encourage initiative, but as we can see from the quote above, following the spirit and letter of the plan was often emphasized. The battle drills underline this: the junior leaders especially had a limited playbook, not full freedom of action

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On the other hand, the focus on battle drills and doctrinal approaches meant that, in theory, the Soviets could easily make snap decisions on the battlefield and adjust to new tactical situations on the go.

Although casualty-prone, this would retain offensive momentum.

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There's a lot more we could talk about here, but it's time to wrap it up.

The Soviets focused on mobile maneuver and combined arms warfare. The major difference to NATO doctrine was the emphasis on the operational level of war and a different approach to the tactical layer.

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Adherence to doctrine, plans and battle drills was more important than every individual commander's freedom of action. In addition to this, the Soviets emphasized aggressive offensive action, as well as the volume and concentration of fires more than Western armies did.

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There'd be more to talk about, but the things discussed here are enough for future discourse about the Ukrainian counteroffensive and armed forces.

We'll be coming back to this thread with @Black_BirdGroup as we start analyzing the counteroffensive in detail.

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-APPENDIX-
Main sources and quotes:

-FM 100-2-1 "THE SOVIET ARMY: Operations and Tactics", US Army 1984.

-Eisenstadt & Pollack: "Armies of Snow and Armies of Sand: The Impact of Soviet Military Doctrine on Arab Militaries", Middle East Journal, 55/4, 2001, pg. 549-578 Image
-FDF officer training hyperfocused on fighting a Soviet-style army.

Big thanks for long conversations and feedback from experts and contacts who have a much better academic understanding of the Soviet way of war than I have.

Especially a guy named Dom.

-END OF APPENDIX-

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More from @J_JHelin

Oct 27
I saw someone mapping the Ukrainian supply routes into Avdiivka in a rather lacklustre way. So I decided to do my own, more informative, map.

To talk about the logistics of Avdiivka we also need to talk about the terrain west of it.

So Avdiivka, a thread:

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Let's start with the roads. To do this we need to differentiate between Main- and secondary supply routes. I'll define them as follows:

SSRs (brown): unpaved roads leading from MSRs into the city of Avdiivka.

MSRs (orange): Paved roads

2/ Image
These definitions are important. MSRs can, obviously, carry much more supplies and more consistently regardless of the weather.

Meanwhile, the SSRs are sometimes mere dirt paths susceptible to weather, especially during the mud season.

Pictured: April roads in Bakhmut

3/
Read 21 tweets
Aug 27
If the land bridge could be cut with long range fires, why even go for the offensive and not just wait for the GLSDB and save troops for much better offensive environment that brings?

I'm seeing a lot of smart people get aboard this narrative shifting.

1/
It's frustrating to watch the Ukrainian offensive struggle, and realise that the expectations of a quick victory, that many had, are not coming to fruition.

Being dishonest with ourselves and reframing the narrative however helps no-one.

2/
You know what's the worst part?

If the Russians were on the offensive and did the same kind of narrative shifting as their offensive struggled to meet expectations and reach strategic goals we would rightfully call that cope.

I'd rather refrain from that.

3/
Read 5 tweets
Aug 6
To add on to what Tatarigami says here, while there are legitimate criticisms with the deliveries of Western aid, blaming the failures of the counteroffensive simply on that aspect is counterproductive and often full of weird tech-utopianism. 1/
Many of the expectations for the counteroffensive were set by Ukrainians themselves focusing so heavily on Crimea and, for example, talking about war being over this summer.

Yes, more reasonable voices also said it's going to be hard, but UA messaging was mixed at best. 2/
On the technology side, Ukraine received long-range missiles to hit Russian rear and supply areas. Coordinating these strikes with ground action has been difficult.

C3 of even battalion sized action is still lacking as is coordination of supporting fires on tactical level.

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jun 7
Velyka Novosilka, a thread.

I've been asked about this enough and considering the developments of today on the Tokmak axis, it's good to get it out of the way.

Information presented here is mostly based on satellite data from monday as well as Russian video and reports.

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Do note, all of this is at least two days old in terms of satellite imagery, and the rest is based on things the Russians themselves have published on various channels.

It's very unlikely that any of what I am going to say is new to the Russian forces in Ukraine.

3/
US officials have claimed that Ukraine has penetrated 5-10km into the Russian depth. This can be true according to Russian reports as well as satellite imagery from Monday.

Remember: Russians losing ground is often implied by glorious defensive successes moving south.

4/
Read 17 tweets
Jun 7
Russian channels claim that Ukrainians have launched an offensive on the Melitopol axis.

According to their claims there are 10 brigades prepared for this push. Unmentioned but previously reported is another group of 4.

That would make it 14 brigades on this axis.
Russian claim for amount of overall brigades in the AO seems to have been pretty OK for Velyka Novosilka, but that means little for now.

We are monitoring the developments.
Correction. Additional grouping is 3 brigades, not 4, making overall number of brigades 13.
Read 4 tweets
Jun 6
Tretyaks thread has a problem in its smoking gun: the Rybar message.

It's not talking about the Dam being blown a little last night, but rather references the video of the bridge demolition from last November when the Russians withdrew from the right bank of the river.
Careful reading of the Rybar message makes that explicitly clear:

"A small area was blown up during the withdrawal of the RF Armed Forces from the right bank of the Dnieper."

The video in question is here.

With the Rybar message not being a smoking gun the rest of the Russian response outlined in Tretyaks thread just looks like the Russians scrambling to come up with any explanations for the event.

As I said earlier this morning: The Russian media response seems confused.
Read 4 tweets

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