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Nov 9 10 tweets 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
1/ Does Vladimir Putin actually want an end to the war in Ukraine? An interesting commentary by the Russian political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov suggests that Putin is "addicted to war like a drug" and that continuing it indefinitely is essential for the regime's survival. ⬇️ Image
2/ Paskukhov – who is an honorary senior research associate of the University College London's School of Slavonic and East European Studies – has been speaking with the exiled Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky on the 'Road Map' YouTube show. Image
3/ Paskukhov comments: "If war is removed from public life, then [the regime] will have to switch gears and concentrate on the routine domestic agenda. After everything that has happened, this transition is fatal for the regime ...
4/ "The war has become a 'wand of salvation' for Putin. This is the old cure for any revolution. And he got hooked on this method like a drug."
5/ He also notes that the war can be used to control the population. "In war conditions, such ancient structures of consciousness, such ancient instincts are activated that nothing can interrupt them. In conditions of threat, the pack always rallies around the leader."
6/ Without the distractions of war, Pastukhov says, people will start asking awkward questions about conditions in Russia, especially the rampant corruption of the Putin regime, exemplified by his $1 billion palace on the Black Sea coast. Image
7/ "Here everyone takes out FBK [Anti-Corruption Foundation] videos and starts to really think about it. Didn’t it happen to us during this war, as Boris Grebenshchikov [a famous Russian rock star] sang, that we were deceived a little."
8/ In reply to Paskukhov, Khodorkovsky notes that the end of the war will cause severe economic difficulties. "Let’s imagine what will happen if we start to unwind [the war economy]. When you wind it up, there is an advantage – you start paying people more."
9/ "And when you unwind it, you either have to pay them less or put them on social benefits. This hits people mentally, everyone understands that social benefits will not be paid forever. And the people who collect weapons are the very political base that supports Putin.
10/ “Unwinding” from an economic point of view will cost no less, but from a political point of view it will cost much more."

The discussion can be watched in Russian, with subtitles in other languages, at the link below (click the image):

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More from @ChrisO_wiki

Nov 8
1/ Russia's state-owned gas company, Transneft, has conscripted hundreds of its staff to fight against "European evil spirits" in Ukraine. However, despite the company's vast wealth, the fighters have been poorly trained and equipped, and have died in large numbers. ⬇️ Image
2/ An investigation by Important Stories highlights the role that Transneft has played in recruiting men to fight in the BARS-20 'Grom' volunteer battalion, one of dozens formed by corporate or political sponsors as part of Russia's Special Combat Army Reserve (BARS). Image
3/ BARS was created in 2021 with the promise that "the Russian Army offers you a unique opportunity to realize your ambitions, show your skills... see the diverse, stunningly beautiful landscapes of our country." It was promoted as a reserve force with occasional exercises.
Read 19 tweets
Nov 7
1/ Russia's Alabuga special economic zone, where Shahed kamikaze drones are being built, has announced that it will incorporate Jupiter's largest moons into a $5.3 trillion "25-year development plan". It has erected a sign outside @elonmusk's office in California to taunt him. ⬇️ Image
2/ Alabuga has previously been in the news for conscripting children, some of whom have been 'catfished' from African countries via dating apps, to build Shahed drones at its polytechnic site in Tatarstan.
3/ Before the war in Ukraine, Alabuga was a high-tech centre of excellence that attracted many foreign companies and housed a polytechnic. It was turned over to drone production to replace the loss of its foreign partners and investors, but its leaders have wider ambitions. Image
Read 17 tweets
Nov 7
1/ Negotiations are reportedly taking place to hand over Wagner Group mineral assets in Syria and Africa to senior Russian Ministry of Defence officials, in exchange for resolving Wagner's debts and issuing veterans' certificates to Wagner fighters. ⬇️ Image
2/ The VChK-OGPU Telegram channel reports that Yevgeny Prigozhin’s heir, Pavel, is negotiating with Russian Deputy Defence Minister Timur Ivanov, via an intermediary.
Timur Ivanov
Pavel Prigozhin
3/ The intermediary is said to be one of the "participants in the meeting with Prigozhin Sr. at the headquarters of the Southern Military District of the Russian Armed Forces" during the June 2023 mutiny, likely meaning either Yunus-Bek Yevkurov or Vladimir Alekseyev.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 6
1/ Two Russian soldiers arrested for the massacre of a Ukrainian family of nine have been named as 21-year-old Anton Sopov (r) and 28-year-old Stanislav Rau (l), both from the Russian Far Eastern region of Primorsky Krai. Relatives have expressed shock at their alleged crimes. ⬇️ Image
2/ The two soldiers are reported to be serving as volunteer contract soldiers of the 155th Separate Guards Order of Zhukov Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet. Both men are reportedly debtors with previous criminal records and had joined the army to pay off their debts.
3/ The two served with the Wagner Group prior to the Prigozhin mutiny, and subsequently joined the Russian Army. They were photographed in August with the governor of the Kamchatka Territory, Vladimir Solodov, who gave them awards and a cuddly toy mascot. Image
Read 14 tweets
Nov 4
1/ Russia has introduced 'special military registration' for prisoners, as a likely precursor to conscripting people directly from penal colonies. The move means that many convicts will have no way to avoid being sent to fight in Ukraine. ⬇️
2/ The existing regulations on military registration have been amended to change the clause excluding prisoners from being registered for military service. A new system of 'special military registration' offices within the penal system is being created.
3/ Those serving sentences will be registered with the military without needing to make a personal appearance at the enlistment office (unlike civilians). Also unlike civilians, they will not be given a medical or psychological examination prior to being registered.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3
1/ The Russian authorities are expanding military recruitment to cover migrants, debtors, former mercenaries, private security guards, the unemployed, convicted criminals, ex-convicts and those under investigation for crimes. ⬇️ Image
2/ Important Stories reports that the continuing need for manpower has prompted the Russian government's Office of the Presidential Plenipotentiary Representative to issue a plan to recruit socially vulnerable sections of society into the Russian army.
3/ The plan is set out in a letter to the administration of the Central Federal District, which covers Moscow and most of the western part of European Russia. It requires the CFD to provide weekly information on the region's government bodies to recruit individuals for the army.


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Read 23 tweets

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