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Dara Massicot Profile picture
@MassDara
Nov 9 • 13 tweets • 3 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
A few observations about Russian forces in recent weeks that I'm watching: improvements to targeting, continued assaults on Avdiivka, possible missile hoarding, and new loitering munitions. /1
Last week, Russian forces used an Iskandr SRBM missile to target the UAF 128th Brigade and potential CP during an award ceremony, killing experienced artillery teams. /2 Image
This gathering is a fleeting event, or time-sensitive target, so the Russians either had foreknowledge of it, or observed it by drone footage and had the ability to quickly call an Iskandr strike in - which is a CAA-level asset /3
I haven’t seen Russian forces strike a time-sensitive target like this with Iskandr SRBMs, correct me if I’ve missed one. Usually they are used them to target fixed sites (buildings, villages, bridges etc), because they want them to arrive on target, meaning, /4
..last week's strike against the 128th means they feel confident enough in their targeting loop to launch this type of missile against a time-sensitive target. It suggests improvement in their recon-strike loop. /5
Next, Russia continues to launch attacks to encircle Avdiivka and losses are not stopping the commitment. The British MOD suggests they’ve lost 200 vehicles in 3 weeks and several thousand personnel. The assaults continue /6
Losses from @geoconfirmed /7
Next: Russian long-range missile launches against Ukraine in October are much lower compared to previous months’ patterns. Is it a glitch, or, are they stockpiling for big launches later in winter months? /8
Citing @rochanconsulting’s work below,Russia launched around 180 missiles monthly at Ukraine from July-September, on average. In October they launched less than 20 (excluding Shaheds). /9 Link: rochan-consulting.com/wp-content/upl…
Image
Ukrainian officials have expressed this concern that they are storing up for future strikes: /10
Russian Skalpel and modified Lancet loitering munitions are reportedly arriving into Ukraine:
and

mil.in.ua/en/news/the-la…
Other issues on my radar: possible Russian attempts to "buy back" equipment from partners abroad, ex-Wagnerites involved in training or signing contracts with Rosgvardia. /12
Final thoughts: the Russians are making adjustments tactically that in aggregate are improving some of their targeting and precision strikes. Avdiivka is a brutal costly assault, but the Russian command is committed to this now, like a sunk cost. /end

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More from @MassDara

Dara Massicot Profile picture
Oct 23
It appears that the Russians may be losing multiple brigade elements from the 2nd CAA and DNR forces in their assault on Avdiivka. Gerasimov strikes again, this time with no pushback on his bad ideas (so far). Yet there are some troubling issues to consider. A thread. (/1) Image
If you’ve followed me for a while, you know that I don’t give Gerasimov’s command in this war high marks, to say the least. /2
He and Shoigu have personality conflicts with their subordinates when (presumably) they were advocate for different ways forward more appropriate to the damaged status of the Russian army (like assuming defensive postures or relieving forces on time)/ 3
Read 22 tweets
Dara Massicot Profile picture
Oct 16
Excellent geospatial analysis from @OSIA_RUSI, identifying one location for DPRK-supplied weapons (most likely artillery shells) to Russia. A thread with a few thoughts. 1: This facility is beyond missile strike range for UAF but not drone range.
2: The modifications made at this facility are small vehicle-sized berms that are not standard for artillery storage facilities farther east in Russia. But still safer than throwing it in a pile with a barbed wire fence, like they did in field depots in 2014-2015 in the Donbas. Image
3: The berm spacing is poor from a safety perspective, if they fill them with ammunition as @COUPSURE pointed out. There is always the possibility they don’t fill each berm or skip berms, or space them with howitizers etc.
Read 11 tweets
Dara Massicot Profile picture
Sep 21
This is the first September in 15 years that the Russian military has not conducted a large-scale military exercise. ZAPAD-2023 was cancelled after it was announced. Most Russian military exercises are disrupted this year as a result of strain and war in Ukraine. A brief thread:
Image
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The biggest cancellation was ZAPAD-2023, announced by MOD in December 22 then cancelled. It would have involved multiple military districts. When asked about why this fall, Defmin Shoigu had this to say: "this year we have training in Ukraine". Meaning, /2 Image
ZAPAD-2023 was probably cancelled due to strain, visible cracks in last year's VOSTOK 2022, conserving funds, elements of all units are deployed, poor availability of equipment and trainers to put together an exercise of this scale. Can't rule out they thought optics were bad./3
Read 12 tweets
Dara Massicot Profile picture
Sep 18
There’s a few ways to interpret this: the VDV is being used to shore up worn out 58th Army units that have been engaging UAF brigades for months and add new challenges to UAF’s main attack. Also, that Russia may not have other skilled units ready for that task. (/1)
Side note: these are the same 58th Army units that Popov warned were at the breaking point months ago and got exiled in Syria for leaked audio criticizing Gerasimov’s bad leadership. Those units have been backstopped by other units a few times before this current rotation /2
Wearing down the VDV would degrade the last units with real combat capacity. It depends on how they are using them though. Teplinskiy is deputy commander of the SMO and also head of VDV so if he’s still around, I assume he will try to make the best use, to the extent possible /3
Read 6 tweets
Dara Massicot Profile picture
Sep 5
A photo of Surovikin and his wife has emerged. A thread on the choppy information about him, which is more telling, and some implications for the state of Russian military leadership and the war effort. /1 Image
About this photo. That is them. The uncropped version shows that he is not walking down a street, but probably in a courtyard of some kind. I don’t know when or where this is and that’s not really the point: the point is that he is shown, not in prison, and with family. /4 Image
This photo was first put out by Ksenia Sobchak on Telegram, where it has spread quickly among some Russian milbloggers. Others don’t know what is safe/unsafe to say about him, so they forward the post or don't comment. Most comments express relief/happiness he is safe. /3
Read 23 tweets
Dara Massicot Profile picture
Jul 21
Good that he’s locked up. Russia didn’t arrest him for his role in the shooting down of a civilian flight (MH-17) or war crimes as their proxy commander in 2014. But pointing out flaws in the war and making a band of misfits to do it? He’s done. Kremlin wants no more critiques./
Girkin was found guilty of command responsibility by Dutch courts for the SA-11 strike that downed Mh-17 and killed 298 people. 2/3 theguardian.com/world/2022/nov…
He created a group of hardliners to critique the war and Putin himself- the “Club of Angry Patriots,” so he was on borrowed time. This sends a broader message to milbloggers that the Kremlin wants no more unsanctioned critique of its war effort. 3/3 reuters.com/world/europe/r…
Read 4 tweets

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