🧵Thread: Escalation Ladder
The resistance axis have been very gradually escalating operations in the region. But even gradual escalation builds up over time- & this is central to the doctrine of the Escalation Ladder by which they are pressuring the US-Zionist aggression.
As discussed prior, this pressure takes away the one element that the US-Zionist aggression was banking on for their war against Gaza's resistance: time. They will not be allowed a gradual, risk-free operation more akin to a medieval siege than an assault.
Another purpose of the Escalation Ladder is to avoid forcing the US-Zionist enemy into immediate deadly retaliation that leads straight into all-out war.
The below tweet describes how this works very well in the Yemeni context specifically:
If the nations & factions of the Resistance Axis had conducted attacks from day one at the same level & scale that they are conducting them at today, there is a high chance it would have sparked an immediate regional war.
By gradually building up, this has thus far been avoided.
This also means the US-Zionist faction have an ongoing chance to back down at any point.
For us, this means avoiding the widespread regional (maybe even global) bloodbath that all-out war will result in.
For them, it is a chance to avoid a war that they surely know can end them.
But this is not an indefinite offer - the longer their assault goes on, the higher the price they pay (whether through Iraqi fire against US bases in the region or Lebanese and Yemeni strikes against the Zionist army) - and the closer an all-out confrontation becomes.
The Resistance Axis is not afraid of total war, but want to take every chance to avoid the devastation the US-Zionist faction would cause across West Asia.
But if imperialist arrogance does not take this chance to step down, escalation will continue all thew ay up to total war.
In the context of this equation, we need to understand that every single faction of the wider Resistance Axis is holding back an significant amount of their capabilities and firepower, to be brought to bear in further stages of escalation, and especially in the case of total war.
🇾🇪 This is why Yemen is only sending smaller quantities of drones and missiles than it is capable of, and why they are not yet targeting US or Zionist army ships in the Red Sea - or indeed why they are not yet targeting "Tel Aviv", though they are fully capable of doing so.
🇮🇶 This is why Iraq began only targeting limited US bases at low frequencies - but now target a wider range of bases, with growing frequency, and with more destructive weaponry.
This week they introduced the use of their Aqsa-1 ballistic missile, & will use more as time goes on.
🇱🇧 This is why the Lebanese Resistance started with rockets fired by allies, then occasional ATGM fire - and have thus far escalated to unprecedented ATGM and machine-gun attacks across the length of the border.
A single Burkan was fired as a warning shot - and more will come.
🇵🇸 Even the Palestinian resistance in Gaza has not yet used the entirety of its capabilities - they have only used a modest number of their long-range missiles, and no doubt possess missiles with greater destructive capability, and other surprises they are saving for the future.
Even the means of confronting the Zionist army's ground incursion that the resistance in Gaza has used thus far is far from the full extent of what they have prepared - they have learned to always hold back more, to be used as the time for it approaches.
The homemade Yassin-105 has been incredibly effective, and, being domestically produced is more easily replaced - but they also have Bulsae-2 and Kornet ATGMs that they have only used sparingly, to say nothing of what drones and other surprises they have in stock.
This is also to say that despite all the Zionist "media victories" (& the occasional worries of some supporters of the resistance), the resistance themselves do not yet see the military situation as advanced enough to warrant the use of the more special arms they have prepared.
The resistance in Gaza, like the rest of the axis, is prepared for a longer, wider war, and have much and more saved up for it.
This is part of the Doctrine of Surprises, famously established by Sayyid Hassan during the 2006 war (see mini-thread below).
Even the resistance in the West Bank has not yet fully mobilized all its capabilities. The Lion's Den has conducted low-key operations and the resistance in Jenin has been on the defensive - but be sure that in the case of total war, the West Bank, too, is full of surprises.
This, as ever, takes nothing away from the heartbreaking suffering of Gaza; the discussion of military doctrine in the wider context of liberation does not mean that Gaza's suffering is acceptable, but nor does it mean that its resistance is not winning.
Ultimately, the responsibility for Gaza's suffering does not lie with the resistance (any resistance), all of whom must function within the framework of sacrifice- but rather with the Zionist monster and the world that has either stood with them or else failed to shackle them.
The martyrs of Gaza, in their tens of thousands, will be an indelible stain upon the myth of the "rules-based world order", and their blood will be the cleansing flood that does away with it, and heralds the beginning of an age where justice is no longer a farcical myth.
God-willing, upon the pure soil of Gaza will the Zionist occupation and its imperialist American master be shattered, broken and buried - for this is the least achievement that the truly legendary people of Gaza and its resistance deserve.
And should Gaza's victory require total war, then so be it: let our blood join the pure blood of Gaza, and add to the tide that does away with this cruel, uncaring world and opens the way for a new one.
To Al-Quds we march, martyrs in the millions.
عالقدس رايحين شهداء بالملايين
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The deeper the Zionist army ventures into the city of Gaza, the more the terrain favours guerilla warfare and the resistance - doubly so considering the Zionist army are relying on tanks and APCs out of fear of their soldiers being captured.
The morale hit of having even one soldier captured while on a mission to “rescue captives” doesn’t bear thinking about for them - but this will limit the effectiveness of their ground operation even further, which was already immensely difficult even with conventional tactics.
Indeed the only reason they are still even conducting this operation is that for the first time, withdrawing (i.e. losing to Hamas) is more unthinkable than the massive losses they are taking, and they are forced to accept what would normally have been unacceptable numbers.
بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم
Here follows my analysis of the current situation, on the occasion of the fourth week of this war, and in particular with regards to the speech made on Friday by Sayyid Hassan and its profound reverberations. 🧵
Sayyid did not address the Zionist entity but its master, the US. This acknowledges that the US is leading this battle in every material way, and that the Zionist entity, much like the Gulf states, is not an independent actor worth addressing, but a US military protectorate.
But this also meant that, for the 1st time, the Lebanese Resistance is directly challenging not just the occupation, but the United States in its entirety.
A non-state paramilitary group, going head-to-head with the world's mightiest hegemon.
The significance of this is great.
So my the thread summarising my thoughts regarding the Sayyid's speech today is going to take a bit more work, since it's also the perfect chance to summarise the overall situation as it currently stands.
In the meantime, though, I want to try something a little different! 🧵
I've seen so many insightful comments from so many people on the different reactions to Sayyid's speech today, and I think these deserve to be shared and given a spotlight. I want to use this thread to do that, while expanding a little on some of the points I've seen being made.
An important clarification is that a lot of the anticipation was not because we all thought something huge was due today, but rather for many of us, it was simply the joy & comfort of finally hearing words from the leader we trust the most.
There is a huge deal of information and misinformation swirling around and it is near impossible to distinguish the two through the fog of war. Remember that only what the resistance and its media says matters: they do not hide losses nor boast fake victories. [Cont ➡️]
Time and time and time again we have seen the impotent, defeated Zionist army try to “achieve” through media boasts what it despairs to actually achieve on the ground.
Even their own population trusts the words of Sayed Hassan and Abu Obeida more than they do their own media.
This is an army that makes up fake commanders with ridiculous nonsense positions and claims to have killed them. It is a hilarious level of delusional fantasy, and all claims and statements made by them are literally worthless if they are not corroborated by trustworthy sources.
🧵 On the matter of the "Arabs":
The much-repeated question of 'why don't the Arab countries do something' is, simply, a waste of breath and energy. You are asking the vassals of the empire to take action against it. It is akin to politely asking a locked door to open.
This is not at all in defense of these countries, whether it is the normalisers or those whose support is underhanded but no less real - rather it is to say that their crimes are far worse than indifference: they are complicit in the US-Zionist war on our peoples.
This is not something that will be remedied by them 'coming to their senses' (or indeed by the torrent of tweets saying 'what about the Arab countries?').
This is only solved by the removal of the ruling dynasties, whose hands are dyed deep crimson with the blood of Palestine.
The story being spun by the occupation regarding "freeing a POW" simply does not add up for me. It smells like another "staged victory" in lieu of real ones, not least since the timing of this comes straight after the clip of the three POWs spread chaos through the entity. [1/]
This is proof of the pressure being put on Netanyahu & his government by the resistance, & their statements & the clip released today.
Netanyahu wants to paint a false image that "rescuing" POWs is a valid option, making calls for a like-for-like exchange sound treasonous. [2/]
Ofc, even if one POW was indeed "rescued" does not mean that all of them can be (indeed, they cannot, for a certainty).
But I still have serious doubts that even this one POW was rescued, & I believe the precise mechanism by which this is being faked will soon emerge. [3/]