Thread by @sambendett

1/ QUICK THREAD on the Russian perceptions and analysis of weapons and systems that most influenced the course of war in Ukraine, and for other global conflicts going forward. The points are from a Russian Telegram channel, so usual caveats apply. t.me/UAVDEV/4403

2/ "First, kamikaze drones - Lancet, Switchblade, FPV, bombers, drone (signal) repeaters - they changed the course of war - it's stupid to deny it. One unit with a Mavic drone can take out up to 300 (enemy) fighters per month. 99% of these drone products are private - either completely private, or developed by private owners and implemented with government participation."

3/ "Next, uncrewed surface boats have changed the behavior of the naval fleet. It is (USV) a completely private development. There are no countermeasures against them yet, other than a sailor with a machine gun."

4/ "3D printing: it allowed not only to create entire lines of ammunition, but also to mass-produce serial ammunition. For example, to make adapters for the batteries of the PTM-3 and MVE-72 mines so that they can work, or to making adapters for walkie-talkies and other equipment."

5/ "Next, Starlink: one can argue how private it really is, but officially it is private. Our official answer - it is a space pager."

6/ "Trench electronic warfare/radio-electronic reconnaissance – before the war in Ukraine, no one knew what that really was. Who would have thought to install electronic warfare in every trench?! Including tank electronic warfare!"

7/ "Next, communications: there is no point in mentioning manufacturers of (domestic) stillborn communications tech at the level of the early 90s. Today's "homing" artillery (let's call it that) is a gun on the move, which can itself determine its coordinates and elevation angle, and by itself, with the help of drones, aim at the target, automatically fire the ammunition and leave - I'm talking about FH77BW L52 "Archer" system."

8/ "That’s exactly it - to do this on its own and quickly - why? Because it will get the info from a drone or a UAV. We can manufacture the "Archer" equivalents using our tech base and our Glonass system. Yes, we have "Koalitsiya" system but it all weighs 48 tons. Or you can put the D-30 system on a Kamaz truck or on a Grad system, and on similar weapons - it is not difficult."

9/ "Next, "Pantsir" is perhaps the only Russian government development on this list. It surprised not only with its successful concept, but also with its ability to shoot and guide a missile on the move. It is the "Pantsir" that will determine how other air defenses will measure up in the coming years."

10/ "Next, "Himars" - everyone knew about it very well, they (Russian defense) made a Tornado-C (equivalent) - we just didn't have enough time to do (enough of) it. UMPK was used by Americans since 1996. This is also not news - they made it to Ukraine, quickly brought it to mass production, and applied it in combat."

11/ "Next, "Krasnopol" - a successful application, in conjunction with a UAV, but again not a new thing. Although "Excalibur" made it possible to deliver several important strikes, in general, it did not particularly stand out from the rest of the high-precision munition."

12/ "Next, KA-52 is a very good helicopter, but it didn’t bring anything new to the war and at first, even got shot down from a Stugna. If the enemy has developed air defense, the survival of Ka-52 is doubtful (as tested by Wagner). Actually, using it they way it was used was not because of "a good life", everyone understands it."

13/ "Next, the naval fleet in general: one joy is that we also have all the means to fight the adversary fleet, it’s just that the enemy does not have a fleet to begin with. If he had existed (in Ukraine), it too would have suffered casualties."

14/ "Next, a large wheeled electronic warfare/electronic recon system that had a lot of hope placed on it is detected from a drone and is taken out by the first drone or artillery strike. Therefore, all the “motorized EW” are located in the rear, and the accuracy of the electronic recon is therefore reduced due to the distance from the signal sources."

15/ "Next, towed artillery - I don’t know what needs to be explained here... If there is enough enemy FPVs (to target it), it turns into a mass grave. Trenches as defensive structures: in the absence of electronic warfare against drones, it’s just an enemy shooting range."

16/ "Next, vehicle-mounted ATGMs: with the development of countermeasures based on tanks and other vehicles, the ATGM crew is the first goal to target. The Stugna concept is currently the only working one for ATGMs. But we also need our own “fire and forget” missiles."

17/ "Moreover, your favorite tanks: suddenly it became clear that the MBT needed to be protected all around. During the war, the layout of the tank protection completely changed, CUAS cope cages have appeared, and tank-based electronic warfare also appeared. Also, heavy munitions scattered by large drones make a tank without trawls disposable."

18/ Finally, there are still few effective drones, they can take out only a percentage of targets. Yes, now tanks and artillery are being taken out. But in 5 years the picture will change and drones will already be fully functional army products, with a wide range of frequency control, with homing and target recognition, and they will hit the tank in the back of the turret like Leopards now."

19/ "But in 5 years will there be enough protected T-90 or Abrams tanks? Will there be canopies at airfields? Will there be nets over the trenches? Drones, as a form of evolution of guided weapons, have changed everything. Armored vehicles should now be built on the fact that the enemy can always see them and can hit them from any angle."

20/ "And the fact that the war in Ukraine is still going on according to the old rules is a consequence of inertia and nothing more. And we have not yet even encountered the entire NATO arsenal."