Posts about hitting enrage and blaming crit rng while deflecting saying they played perfectly is so common in the community. Even if you 'hypothetically' did play perfectly, it's a team game. Who's to say the seven other members of your team also played perfectly?
Players don't really see how much damage they are losing when they do something sub-optimal even if very slight. A missed positional, a slightly delayed raid buff, even bursting wrong in buffs. They'll make an error and brush it off but over the fight they will add up fast.
It's hard to put blame though since they don't have the tools required to actually see what they're doing is really making an impact because unless you have a sim or spreadsheet showing you a big number then you're not really going to understand the full scope of things.
The reason you that you didn't beat enrage is not because of crit rng and chances are you did not play 'perfectly'. Stop blaming reasons outside of your control and become a better player for it. There's always something you can rotationally improve on from pull to pull.
In speeds we'll have a sim calculate optimized rotations - that took hours to map - perfectly without fault and then run a log of our rotations from that night through a sim and that can sometimes be a hundred off. If that's the case where do you think a prog rotation places?
<MATH TIME AKA HOW MUCH ARE WE ACTUALLY LOSING? SOME VALUES WILL VARY BASED ON TEAM COMP TOO>
A trivial error like using a raid buff a single cd late cascades into a fairly large loss on a pDPS scale - not even accounting for the raids loss. This not only ruins your buff synergy for the rest of the fight but potentially misses early heavy hitter moves from the team too.
With the mention of raid buff alignment what would it look like more jumbled up, each one being a second ahead or below the other? The losses don't look very big on an individual scale but this compounds with the other 7 party members also taking losses.
Positionals, something you don't really generally care to notice during prog because they simply aren't worth the risk of dying but they are also something that amalgamates with your pre-existing mistakes. Here I just found some random P8P1 week 1 logs.
Not rolling your GCD can be another staple of prog. Sometimes you'll be forced to take downtime or just play safer in general. The outcomes can vary depending on the job. Some jobs suffer a bit more when their GCD gets misaligned or they aren't able to build resources effectively
Dark Knight is a job that can accumulate losses at a very high rate. Something as simple as pressing Living Shadow a GCD late can net you a hefty loss in damage. This combined with improper edge lines or simply not pooling properly can get you losses in the hundreds.
Astro is probably the most sneaky when it comes to losses due to being reliant on individual player skill. Precise timings where a one second variance or a misplayed card on the wrong person can drastically change your raid output. Values of which are amplified with worse play.
Healer resources can be a enrage killer. Healer opti has been and will probably always will be the end all be all of enrage prog. After all it's one of the easiest forms of damage optimization you can gather. If you have exceptional healers you'll hardly ever wipe to a DPS check.
Other miscellaneous funny things I cba to write out since they were kind of just for fun to see.
The point being out of all of this is that the average player in a prog environment is probably taking 10 to 20+ small losses over the course of an encounter which in itself can rack up to the hundreds of DPS individually. Putting the team in the negative thousands overall.
This also is only highlighting smaller mistakes, there's also the argument for just bad standard rotations overall that only later clearing groups can even attempt due to the time investment to make (or just to copy) but they are never needed to actually clear a fight.
Extra diagram to reiterate my point
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I see a lot of people talking about the DPS checks in TOP and I kinda wanna give my two cents as someone who speed killed this tier and had to threshold boss HP.
For one this is the tightest DPS check we've seen in an ultimate. Not only by just a "one phase" basis but also just from the fact that everything carries over so there is a snowball effect in place until you get past P4.
You die in P1? You have to use extra resources in P2 now to reach P3. You die in P2? You have to pump super hard in P2 to get to P3 and so on. This makes it to where you almost have to perfect play all the way until P4. Which is something no Ultimate has really done before.
I remember joking during TEA speeds how funny it would be if you legitimately ran into an issue with buff capping in an actual fight scenario and it happened except it's not actually funny SE💀
This happens when your buffs hit 30 btw which isn't exactly an easy thing to do and usually only happens when there's a huge mitigation sequence + opener sequence combined (i.e doll skip during TEA)
But jobs that have a lot of self buffs i.e monk, sage, dancer etc have an easier time reaching this buff cap and it's becoming an issue in P3
Doing a little math on the Door Boss DPS check it seems that it's around 61,500 rDPS. Our best during prog was around 63,100 rDPS which means we had around 1,600 DPS of leeway and some other groups even have over 2,000 DPS of leeway.
This pretty much solidifies my hunch that the DPS check was definitely not tuned around tome weapons or gear since groups who played really well would still have probably anywhere from 1000-1500 lead on the DPS check. Though whether you agree with that or not is up to you.
The issue definitely stems from job balance rather than gear tuning imo. The fact that bringing one job like WAR/PLD would give you a net loss of around 500 DPS is absolutely insane and would further make the DPS check much less unobtainable if you only had crafted gear.
While Fate Calibration is a cool mechanic lore wise and visually the last phase of Perfect Alexander really ruins the fight. There's very little sense of progression at all after Wormhole and it feels like the victory lap begins 8 minutes into the fight.
To put into comparison Ultima's last phase had a 6:00-6:10 Enrage (Perfect Alex has a 6:00 hard enrage too) and it probably took 20-40 hours to prog for most hardcore groups. It always felt like it went by really fast because there was something always going on.
On our 2nd pull of Perfect Alexander we limped our way to the 2nd set of Trines and took very little time to prog overall. One of the main standing issues of Perfect is that it stands still doing nothing for 2+ minutes and is unable to be attacked for an extra 45 seconds.