Thread by @Mylovanov

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum writes the West must defeat Russia

But why? Why should an ordinary citizen of a Western democracy care about defeating Russia? Don't they have bigger problems at home?

Here is a list of 10 reasons why
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1. A more aggressive, unchecked Russia will lead to future conflicts that involve the US and Europe, endangering American and European lives. It's better to stop Russia now.

Many might not take this threat seriously, but they should reflect on recent history critically 2/

Many people, including me, didn't believe that Russia would invade Ukraine in February 2022, or do it at this scale, or that it would wipe out entire cities, as in Mariupol, killing tens of thousands of civilians, or blow a major river dam in Europe, or fire missiles in 1000s 3/

Anne writes that just last week, Dmitry Medvedev, ex-President of Russia, called Poland a "historical enemy" in an 8,000-word piece, hinting at a possible invasion. That the threat Putin poses remains unchanged threat since February 2022. 4/

This threat could "lead to a new kind of Europe, one in which Poland, the Baltic states, and even Germany are under constant physical threat, with all of the attendant consequences for trade and prosperity." 5/

"A Europe permanently at war, an idea that seems impossible to most people in the West, still seems eminently plausible to the Russian president" The problem is that Putin has the means to pursue this idea and in a sense he does so be fighting the West on multiple fronts 6/

And so the list of threats from Russia is much bigger. If Ukraine falls, then

2. American and NATO credibility will be further undermined since it can't stand up to authoritarian regimes 7/

3. There will be rising unrest and extremism in Europe driven by Russia

4. Unstable oil and gas markets and increased global conflicts exacerbated by Russia will continue to cause economic problems at including inflation 8/

5. Russian propaganda and political interference could further divide American and European societies and worsen political dysfunction

6. Defeating Russia can prevent a much worse conflict vs Russia, China, or Iran later that would be much worse for Americans and Europeans 9/

But can Ukraine win? Can the West and Ukraine defeat Russia together?

There is a lot of disbelief today - the counteroffensive has failed, Russia is strong, there is a stalemate, Zelensky is the only one who continues to believe in victory ... But that's not new 10/

Recall how few thought Ukraine could resist and survive in the first days of the invasion. How almost no one thought that Ukraine could reclaim Kherson and Kharkiv, especially without a major escalation and blowback from Russia after its annexation claims. 11/

Few believed Crimea could be attacked or the Black Sea fleet weakened and constrained. Similarly, few expected the West's unity in military and economic support or sanctions. Equally, few anticipated Ukraine's successful EU candidacy process.

Impossible is possible 12/

Anne notes the many advocates for a ceasefire, but says their motives vary. Some, in bad faith, seek a Russian victory or Biden's defeat. Others, with good intentions, argue for limiting Ukraine's damage, believing Putin won't back down. 13/

Recently, several well-meaning Ukraine supporters suggested a resolution akin to the Korean War – freezing borders at current front lines, with the rest of Ukraine shielded by U.S. security guarantees and bases, much like South Korea. 14/

Anne makes a compelling argument why these proposals are flawed: "The stark truth is that this war will only end for good when Russia’s neo-imperial dream finally dies. 15/

Just as the French decided in 1962 that Algeria could become independent of France, just as the British accepted in 1921 that Ireland was no longer part of the United Kingdom, the Russians must conclude that Ukraine is not Russia. " 16/

The article makes severals suggestions what should be done: increasing military production in the West, supporting Ukraine financially and militarily, fighting Russia on multiple fronts outside of Ukraine. But the key is a change of mindset 17/

I fully agree with Anne. I think the Western world overestimate the immediate cost of the war and underestimates the horrible implications of Russia winning in Ukraine 18/

If Russia succeeds, then it would encourage China to invade Taiwan and expand its power, no longer deterred by the West. Russia could also threaten and possibly attack or dominate other neighbors like Poland, the Baltics, and Germany again. 18/

It would strengthen Russia's global authoritarian alliances with Iran, Venezuela, Syria and others.
The spread of violence and unrest would continue and likely accelerate in the Middle East, Africa, and Europe.
Pro-Russian extremist politics could surge in the West. 19/

Divisive propaganda and political warfare would increase.

The economic integration and prosperity of Europe would be severely damaged by having an aggressive Russia threatening the borders. 20/

Finally, America's credibility as a defensive alliance partner would be undermined, hurting its global standing and relationships. We will be in a different, much less safe and much more authoritarian world. 21X