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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Nov 12 • 7 tweets • 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I reported another video of this AFU strike, but this one tells us a great deal about RuAF logistical operational patterns.

1. The RuAF tactical trucks were escorted by armored mobility vehicles through Ukraine from Crimea to protect it from Ukrainian partisans/Special Forces
1/
2. The tactical trucks were 23-25 km back from the front line transferring their troops & material to UAZ/Loaf/Scooby Doo vans.

This says a lot about composition of the Russian wheeled logistical vehicle fleet after 20 odd months of combat attrition.

2/ Image
Russia is trying to protect it's Kamaz tactical truck fleet by keeping them outside the nominal range of Ukrainian artillery.

This isn't possible in Kherson as the E-14 from Rostov-on-the-Don and the E-97 from Western Crimea have AFU drones parked on

3/
...them looking for these UAZ-to-Kamaz transfer stations while being cued by Ukrainian direction finding gear and local partisan road watchers.

Given NATO 155mm/L52 caliber guns and GMLRS, these 25km behind the lines truck transfer stations are now killing grounds for AFU
4/
...long range fire missions.

This is a real dilemma for the RuAF as convoys of UAZ are just as or more vulnerable as Kamaz convoys.

And Russian Army logistics by Scooby Doo/Loaf/UAZ vans...

5/
...has really awful mobility in the Ukrainian mud season.

Ukraine's anti-access area denial (A2AD) of RuAF ground line of communication logistics in Eastern (Left Bank) Kherson is getting tighter.

5/5 End
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 13
This is the 2nd of a so far series of three Strategypage -dot- com op-eds by Tom Holsinger on Biden Administration foreign policy.

And it has a nuclear clickbait opening paragraph I don't want to believe, lots of reasons.

1/
 strategypage.com/qnd/israel/art…
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The major problem that I have in _disbelieving_ that opening paragraph are the (in)actions of the Biden Administration with retaliating against Iranian proxy militias.

A Trump vs Wagner mercs in Syria sized curb stomping of Iranian proxies is required.
2/
Instead, the Biden Administration is doing things like asking China for help in getting Iran to stop being on a 1979 and counting mission from G-d against the 'Great Satan' (Mullahese for the USA).🙄

3/
Read 18 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
This report from @CovertShores is an extraordinarily important one for what it tells us about Ukraine's expanding anti-access area denial (A2AD) bubble it is building against RuAF logistics to occupied Eastern Kherson.

Watercraft Fuel Logistics 🧵
1/
The Ondatra & Serna-class landing craft are roughly the equivalent of a WW2 era US Navy LCM.

Gen. MacArthur's Engineer Special Brigades use them to move troops 100's of km. in the S. Philippines campaign shore to shore in the Victor & King operations
2/
Image
Rather than carrying the 30 ton load that a mid-WW4 Sherman tank represented for a Landing Craft Mechanized, (LCM).

These Russian landing craft are scaled to carry a single T-72 tank (45 tons).

This makes them critical for RuAF fuel logistics.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
This graphic from @HamWa07 of an actual S-300 missile sites' radar coverage (left) near the Kerch Straits compared to the claimed S-400 system performance (right), based on drawing circles of missile range and claimed detection range, shows why the human factor matters.

1/


Image
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It takes trained human skills to get the best out of any weapons system.

Surface to air missile battery performance is heavily dependent on the staff work in properly placing the radars and telecommunications relaying radar data to missile launchers.

This is always a game
2/
...of compromise with available defenses, terrain, and existing civilian infrastructure that may affect the placement of your SAM battery.

@HamWa07 map shows the S-300 can only cover the east to south east well.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 8
Anti-Access Air Denial, Jammer & FPV based Ukrainian Air superiority over the Dnipro.

It's time to acknowledge that air superiority is less & less based on crewed high performance aircraft.

Control of the electromagnetic spectrum is air superiorities' most important element
1/
And we are seeing that right now with Russian complaints at #Krynky .

This is because observed artillery fire with precision guided artillery projectiles have in part replaced crewed airpower in retail close air support and battlefield interdiction

2/
...when combined with drones.

There are so few crewed strike jets now compared to WW2, with too many levels of command claiming "Higher Priorities" for a highly expensive & scarce asset, that Field artillery & attack helicopters have taken up the roles.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 7
The simultaneous Ukraine fielding new jammers of Russian FPV drones (below) and new longer ranged, cheap, EW hardened FPV's with a ~30 km range operating in the same electromagnetic battlespace over #Krynky to cover ferry operations is a demonstration of its E.W. mastery.

1/
The map (H/T @secretsqrl123) and the quoted post below will give you the idea of the area of effect Ukraines simultaneous deployment of FPV Drone Jammers and new generation longer range & electronic warfare hardened FPV's to interdict RuAF vehicles.

2/
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What Ukraine did here was what the US manual JP 3-51, Joint Doctrine for Electronic Warfare, calls "Frequency Deconfliction."**

Ukraine fielded a number of powerful river mobile drone jammers while at the same time deploying slightly larger FPV drones with different radio
3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 6
In watching the current Israeli - Hamas War, very few have tried to analyze Israel's strategic dilemma & what happens to Gaza Palestinians after Israel militarily exterminates Hamas.

I've just found an article that does...and it's going to be a dystopian Sci-Fi horror show.

1/ Image
This section of Holsinger's article makes the right comparison to the US battle to liberate Manila from the Japanese in early 1945 to get reasonable estimates for IDF losses.

I posted on Manila before & hope he's wrong on civilian casualties in Gaza 😱
2/
Image
This is the only article I've seen mention this point about what Hamas is.

Hamas is a death cult. It exults in the deaths of its enemies & its supporters.

Cultures that turn pregnant women into suicide bombers are incapable of making a Westphalian Nation-State.

3/ Image
Read 20 tweets

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