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Trent Telenko Profile picture
@TrentTelenko
Nov 13 • 18 tweets • 6 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
This is the 2nd of a so far series of three Strategypage -dot- com op-eds by Tom Holsinger on Biden Administration foreign policy.

And it has a nuclear clickbait opening paragraph I don't want to believe, lots of reasons.

1/
 strategypage.com/qnd/israel/art…
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The major problem that I have in _disbelieving_ that opening paragraph are the (in)actions of the Biden Administration with retaliating against Iranian proxy militias.

A Trump vs Wagner mercs in Syria sized curb stomping of Iranian proxies is required.
2/
Instead, the Biden Administration is doing things like asking China for help in getting Iran to stop being on a 1979 and counting mission from G-d against the 'Great Satan' (Mullahese for the USA).🙄

3/
And this attempt at diplomacy through the "good offices" of CCP Chairman Xi has exactly the effect you would think.

That is, none at all.

4/
And now there is a 2nd round of limited bombing IRGC facilities after the 1st on Nov. 9th failed to inflict a big enough curb stomp.

There has been no curb stomp in this "signaling with high explosive" after 56 US traumatic brain injury casualties.🤷‍♂️

4/
Holsinger's section here on Hezbollah having a "sudden attack of sanity" in the face of Iranian & Hamas demands to commit suicide on behalf of Gaza, while the Israeli polity is in a killing mood, is...reasonable...?

I'm less believing in Hezbollah wanting to to care for its
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...people than Hezbollah leaders can't spend Iranian oil money in numbered Swiss bank accounts if they are dead.

And speaking of bribe money, this last bit of his op-ed is a beauty on that score.

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The Iranian nuclear deal was the Obama Administration bribe.

The Biden Administration relaxing of oil sanction enforcement - visible on maritime tracking of tanker movements into Kharg island & worth about ~$15 billion compared to $6 billion frozen - counts for Biden.🙄
7/
I just don't see bribes as being effective in influencing events now.

The Israeli people are in a very bloodthirsty threat elimination mood like the USA was in on 9/12/2001.

Neither words nor money will stop it until that rage has been vented in Iranian proxy blood.

8/
And one of Hezbollah's factions just made a huge mistake in misreading the Israeli public.

They just reminded the Israeli public Hezbollah can and does kill Israeli civilians too.

9/
So far the IDF has limited its responses to killing Hezbollah ATGM teams.

10/
With Hamas battalions falling apart under IDF hammer blows, most of Hamas fighters are laying low for opportunities.

This leaves most of the Israeli air force and the bulk of IDF mechanized ground forces in the North facing Hezbollah & Syria.

11/
The economic reality of the costs of a fully mobilized IDF puts the Israeli economy on a tight schedule as far as how long the IDF can operate.

On the other hand, an immediate IDF 1st strike on Hezbollah while mobilized would limit the rocket threat to Israeli cities...

12/
...and extend the life of the Netanyahu unity government - and thus delay accountability for 7 Oct 2023 - for however long as IDF air-ground incursions into Lebanon takes.

More power and less accountability is a siren song for any government, let alone for Netanyahu's.🤷‍♂️

13/
And this is where I just see no possibility of a bribe to get Israel and Hezbollah to stand down.

After the fall of Speaker McCarthy in the House, the politically polarized US Federal government simply cannot make any meaningful decision on anything.

14/
Thus the political inertial impelled by the Israeli polity's 8 Oct 2023 blood lust will rule us all.

And America's nightmare in this is that the longer the Biden Administration dithers with curb stomping Iranian proxies.

18/
The greater the chance the Trump for President campaign will start throwing charges along the lines of Holsinger's nuclear clickbait opening paragraph.

It's exactly what Trump did after the Dec 2, 2015 San Bernardino Islamic terrorist attack.


19/19 Enden.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_San_…
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More from @TrentTelenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 12
I reported another video of this AFU strike, but this one tells us a great deal about RuAF logistical operational patterns.

1. The RuAF tactical trucks were escorted by armored mobility vehicles through Ukraine from Crimea to protect it from Ukrainian partisans/Special Forces
1/
2. The tactical trucks were 23-25 km back from the front line transferring their troops & material to UAZ/Loaf/Scooby Doo vans.

This says a lot about composition of the Russian wheeled logistical vehicle fleet after 20 odd months of combat attrition.

2/ Image
Russia is trying to protect it's Kamaz tactical truck fleet by keeping them outside the nominal range of Ukrainian artillery.

This isn't possible in Kherson as the E-14 from Rostov-on-the-Don and the E-97 from Western Crimea have AFU drones parked on

3/
Read 7 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
This report from @CovertShores is an extraordinarily important one for what it tells us about Ukraine's expanding anti-access area denial (A2AD) bubble it is building against RuAF logistics to occupied Eastern Kherson.

Watercraft Fuel Logistics 🧵
1/
The Ondatra & Serna-class landing craft are roughly the equivalent of a WW2 era US Navy LCM.

Gen. MacArthur's Engineer Special Brigades use them to move troops 100's of km. in the S. Philippines campaign shore to shore in the Victor & King operations
2/
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Rather than carrying the 30 ton load that a mid-WW4 Sherman tank represented for a Landing Craft Mechanized, (LCM).

These Russian landing craft are scaled to carry a single T-72 tank (45 tons).

This makes them critical for RuAF fuel logistics.

3/
Read 11 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 10
This graphic from @HamWa07 of an actual S-300 missile sites' radar coverage (left) near the Kerch Straits compared to the claimed S-400 system performance (right), based on drawing circles of missile range and claimed detection range, shows why the human factor matters.

1/


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It takes trained human skills to get the best out of any weapons system.

Surface to air missile battery performance is heavily dependent on the staff work in properly placing the radars and telecommunications relaying radar data to missile launchers.

This is always a game
2/
...of compromise with available defenses, terrain, and existing civilian infrastructure that may affect the placement of your SAM battery.

@HamWa07 map shows the S-300 can only cover the east to south east well.

3/
Read 6 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 8
Anti-Access Air Denial, Jammer & FPV based Ukrainian Air superiority over the Dnipro.

It's time to acknowledge that air superiority is less & less based on crewed high performance aircraft.

Control of the electromagnetic spectrum is air superiorities' most important element
1/
And we are seeing that right now with Russian complaints at #Krynky .

This is because observed artillery fire with precision guided artillery projectiles have in part replaced crewed airpower in retail close air support and battlefield interdiction

2/
...when combined with drones.

There are so few crewed strike jets now compared to WW2, with too many levels of command claiming "Higher Priorities" for a highly expensive & scarce asset, that Field artillery & attack helicopters have taken up the roles.

3/
Read 16 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 7
The simultaneous Ukraine fielding new jammers of Russian FPV drones (below) and new longer ranged, cheap, EW hardened FPV's with a ~30 km range operating in the same electromagnetic battlespace over #Krynky to cover ferry operations is a demonstration of its E.W. mastery.

1/
The map (H/T @secretsqrl123) and the quoted post below will give you the idea of the area of effect Ukraines simultaneous deployment of FPV Drone Jammers and new generation longer range & electronic warfare hardened FPV's to interdict RuAF vehicles.

2/
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What Ukraine did here was what the US manual JP 3-51, Joint Doctrine for Electronic Warfare, calls "Frequency Deconfliction."**

Ukraine fielded a number of powerful river mobile drone jammers while at the same time deploying slightly larger FPV drones with different radio
3/ Image
Read 17 tweets
Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 6
In watching the current Israeli - Hamas War, very few have tried to analyze Israel's strategic dilemma & what happens to Gaza Palestinians after Israel militarily exterminates Hamas.

I've just found an article that does...and it's going to be a dystopian Sci-Fi horror show.

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This section of Holsinger's article makes the right comparison to the US battle to liberate Manila from the Japanese in early 1945 to get reasonable estimates for IDF losses.

I posted on Manila before & hope he's wrong on civilian casualties in Gaza 😱
2/
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This is the only article I've seen mention this point about what Hamas is.

Hamas is a death cult. It exults in the deaths of its enemies & its supporters.

Cultures that turn pregnant women into suicide bombers are incapable of making a Westphalian Nation-State.

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Read 20 tweets

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