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Nate Silver, who years ago taught us all to look at the polling averages instead of doomsday hyperbole, is now such a desperate has-been that he’s cranking out doomsday hyperbole that ignores the polling averages. I trust everyone knows to ignore his every word at this point.
For those asking how this happens, it’s pretty straightforward. His predictions were the best in the business. But no one’s predictions can be right 100% of the time. So when he occasionally got it wrong, the public (unfairly) decided he was a fraud. It went downhill from there.
Then the rise of junk polls and fraudulent polls made it harder to parse of the polling averages, so his predictions gradually got worse (not necessarily his fault, everyone’s predictions got worse).
But when you’re known for insight, and things change such that you can no longer offer insight, how do you stay in the game? You offer stupid shit. Doomsday hyperbole. Contrarian hot takes so intentionally dumb that it at least gets you trending and gets you hate-clicks.
When you know you can’t use legitimate insight to attract an audience, you start throwing pies in your own face for attention.
It’s what 80% of the hosts on MSNBC and CNN are doing.
It’s what 95% of the most prominent political voices on a Twitter are doing.
It’s what 80% of the hosts on MSNBC and CNN are doing.
It’s what 95% of the most prominent political voices on a Twitter are doing.
Put another way: there is nothing insightful that Nate Silver could say these days that would get him trending and make him relevant.
But there are, obviously, stupid things he can say that will get him trending and briefly make him relevant. So he says stupid things.
But there are, obviously, stupid things he can say that will get him trending and briefly make him relevant. So he says stupid things.
“He should just hang it up.”
Yes he should. But what’s he supposed to do for a living for the rest of his life, go sell used cars?
He wants to remain in the political analysis industry. But he can’t do it with smart takes, so he’s doing it with dumb takes. Him and 1000 others.
Yes he should. But what’s he supposed to do for a living for the rest of his life, go sell used cars?
He wants to remain in the political analysis industry. But he can’t do it with smart takes, so he’s doing it with dumb takes. Him and 1000 others.
There’s a disturbing larger societal trend where your surest path to success is to fail.
People run for president just so they can drop out and get a lucrative book deal.
Cable news hosts purposely say stupid things just to get the audience to hate-watch them and boost ratings.
People run for president just so they can drop out and get a lucrative book deal.
Cable news hosts purposely say stupid things just to get the audience to hate-watch them and boost ratings.
And this has nothing to do with what political “side” you’re on.
The worst cable news hosts on all three networks purposely say stupid things to get hate-watchers. They don’t have a “side” other than “I need to stay on the air by any humiliating means necessary.”
The worst cable news hosts on all three networks purposely say stupid things to get hate-watchers. They don’t have a “side” other than “I need to stay on the air by any humiliating means necessary.”
Nate Silver is no different. His side is “what can I say that’ll make me relevant again.” Simple as that.
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