Thread by @Tatarigami_UA

BBC published an article in Russian titled "Does it make sense for Ukraine to fight for Avdiivka?" In this article, several experts argue that Avdiivka lacks military significance. I disagree with this assessment, finding it misleading. Here's why. 🧵Thread:

1/

2/ While I agree that the assault on Avdiivka likely has political reasons, as I discussed on the day the assault started, focusing solely on political aspects is not only inaccurate but also dangerous.

3/ The article states, "Most experts agree that it has exclusively political, not military, significance for the Kremlin."

I strongly disagree with it - Avdiivka has played a key military role in Donetsk since 2014.

4/ On this map, I've marked potential routes and opportunities that could arise for russian forces in the event of Avdiivka falling. While it's not an exact representation, it provides a general idea of the range of opportunities that may open up for Russian forces to advance

5/ Avdiivka plays a key role in both defensive and offensive operations. Avdiivka denies Russian forces operational space and protects the flanks of logistical hubs.

6/ While it's accurate that Avdiivka may not be used as a foothold to assault Donetsk in the near future if an opportunity arises, Avdiivka will play a key role in successfully entering Donetsk. This essentially revisits the 2014 scenario with the potential for different outcomes

7/ I agree with the analysts in this article emphasizing that Ukraine doesn't need a second Bakhmut, especially in its late stage. Holding territory for political rather than operational necessity, when encirclement becomes imminent, can lead to avoidable losses.

8/ Avdiivka's military significance should not be dismissed since it serves as a barrier preventing Russian forces from entering the operational space towards Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and Kostiantynivka, crucial nodes in Donetsk oblast.

9/ The Russians underestimated Ukrainian forces in this attack, necessitating resource diversion from elsewhere for limited advances. Although immediate exploitation is doubtful, they can continue to expand by reallocating forces from other areas, replaced by newly formed units

10/ If you find this thread useful, I kindly request you to like, follow, and share the first message in the thread.
My team is working on a big investigation thanks to the support received through Buy Me A Coffee - we always need your help and support.