Thread by @TheStudyofWar

The positional war is not the result of fundamental realities in modern warfare that can only be changed with a technological or tactical revolution. Neither does it rest on a permanent parity in military capacity between Russia & Ukraine regardless of Western support to Kyiv. 🧵

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1724819553601957957

2/ It results, on the contrary, from self-imposed limitations on the technologies the West has been willing to provide #Ukraine and constraints on the Russian defense industrial base largely stemming from #Putin’s unwillingness so far to commit #Russia fully to this war.

3/ Western arsenals already possess the weaponry necessary to address nearly all the challenges confronting the combatants in #Ukraine, and the full mobilization of the Russian economy and society for war could counterbalance its technological limitations.

4/ Furthermore, #Ukraine’s ability to prevent Russian forces from conducting large-scale mechanized maneuver warfare, most crucially, remains absolutely dependent on the continued provision of Western aid on at least the current scale.

5/ Facilitating Ukraine’s ability to reinstate maneuver on the battlefield doesn't necessitate extensive transformations. It requires leaning into the provision to Ukrainian forces of weapons and systems already in Western arsenals on the scale needed to allow Ukraine to succeed.

6/ US policymakers must understand, above all, that the current positional war in #Ukraine is not a stable or permanent reality inherent either in the nature of war today or in the relative balance of military power between #Russia and Ukraine.

7/ Ending or significantly curtailing American military support to #Ukraine will enable #Russia to win this war on the battlefield. That would be a catastrophe not only for Ukraine, but also for NATO and for the United States.

Read more: isw.pub/Ukraine111523