Trent Telenko Profile picture
Nov 15, 2023 21 tweets 8 min read Read on X
This is one of the most poignant testimonies as to why FPV drones are replacing direct fire ATGM on the battlefield.

Only drones can provide the necessary mass of precision guided munitions for a modern battlefield.

Lt. Chornovol is buying 4 drones a month because it is

1/
...twice the number of Stugna ATGM Ukraine's military can give her two launchers per month.

And Ukraine builds Stugna for $20,000. That is 1/5th that of a US Javelin missile doing the same job.

The Stugna Launcher can be remote fired, but her crew still has to recover it.
2/ Image
Taking insane risks from Russian return fire because there are no replacement launchers.

FPV drones don't require launchers.

They don't require exposing yourself to enemy direct fire to use them.

3/ Image
This makes FPV drones logistically superior to Stugna's per unit weight and volume of lethality because the munition is disintermediated from anything carrying or firing it.

Precision guided firepower detached from launch platform is new in warfare.

Even if the guidance tech
4/
...for the FPV drones is over 50 years old.

Television guidance was used in combat in 1969 on the GBU-8 HOBOS bombs to drop N. Vietnamese bridges.

Radio guidance is 30 years older (Fritz-X) and the USAAF combined both TV & radio in 1942 with the GB-4.
5/
designation-systems.net/dusrm/app1/gb.…


Image
Image
Image
Eighty years of electronic advancement under the Moore's Law curve - which isn't slowing down - means FPV's becoming equipped with low light level cameras or even cheap thermal sensors are a battlefield reality in numbers already.

6/
pcgamesn.com/tsmc-moores-la…
Image
Perhaps not at a cost that Lt. Chornovol can afford at four a month, but at a lot less than a Stugna.

Something like 1/5th of a Stugna's cost, using cheap uncooled microbolometer thermal sensors, as a Stugna is 1/5th of a Javelin.

(H/T @ChuckPfarrer)
7/ Image
This is the WW2 "Washing Machine Charlie" with precision delivery, at night.

And, in fact, the Russians have been using another name for such drones...Baba Yaga

This is the Russian information one of Ukraine's Baba Yaga drones
8/
Baba Yaga was the wicked witch used to scare children.

And that seems to be what is happening with the Russians as, if Baba Yaga has Starlink, then it does not need other data channels.

And jamming Starlink is hell.

9/ Image
Anything that uses a pencil beam with very low sidelobes forces you to put the jammer inside the beam mainlobe.

Starlink's cheap active electronically scanned array (AESA) antenna on both ends do exactly that with a sky filled with dozens of AESA satellites to an AESA...

10/
...receiver. I have been trying to explain that technological fact of life for years on Twitter/X & the wall of stupid about it still stands.

This is literally Electronic Warfare 101 level knowledge.🙄

And techies have published teardowns of the Starlink AESA antennas...

11/
...on Youtube, so there are no excuses.

The link below is the result of my typing in "starlink antenna teardown" on the Youtube search engine.

12/
youtube.com/results?search…
Ukraine's General Staff is now publishing weekly data on it's mostly FPV drone kills.

On the week ending Nov 13, 2023, "...among the destroyed equipment units are 39 tanks, 57 artillery systems, 51 trucks, 34 armored fighting vehicles, & many other

13/
ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/378…
Image
units that have been successfully turned into scrap," said the deputy prime minister.

The Reporting from Ukraine channel has an outstanding report on how mostly FPV plus the Baba Yaga drones are dominating the battlespace at Avdiivka [Not Stugna's].
14/

Image
In fact, the conclusion we can draw right now from Ukraine's General Staff Army of drone numbers & OSINT counts is that drones are not only the leading cause of RuAF vehicle kills.

They are at or more than all other direct fire arms combined.😱🤯

15/
Rodra Hascaryo on over on the Quora social media platform posted this on why the direct fire 16-inch guns of the USS Iowa (Black circle) are obsolete versus missiles and the F-18 (Green circle) going over the horizon.

FPV's have that F-18 advantage over Stugna's & T-64's.
16/ Image
Each FPV drone is a PGM - with guidance modelled on the GBU-8/GBU-15 concept with TV/IIR seeker, but powered.

Yes this is revolutionary battlefield effect, but also evolutionary in that the underlying technologies have been there for decades, evolving for the moment.

17/
Awaiting the moment of a chaotic mix of a existential total war, for a civil society with a large enough computer literate middle class, using a conscript-cadre military, with rampant shortages of traditional artillery shells to make the FPV drone a survival need.

18/
We are in the midst of a Drone "Revolution in Military Affairs" the likes of which only August Cole and P. W. Singer have barely touched upon in the opening Okinawa raid in their their book "Ghost Fleet: A Novel of the Next World War"

19/
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghost_Fle…
Ukraine's little drones are changing everything & faster than we expected.

Small-cheap-many ares overthrowing big-costly-few...

...and we are now in the part of the story where military inertia prevents change short of facing the aftermath of defeat in combat.

20/20 End Image
@threadreaderapp unroll please.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Trent Telenko

Trent Telenko Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @TrentTelenko

Jun 3
Just...no. The 8th AF fudged its accuracy numbers.

It excluded "gross error" bombing runs beyond 3,000 feet from the target. Which were above 10% of all 1944 bombing runs.

Below, the inner circle is what a 1944 1,000 foot (304m) CEP in WW2 looked like when dropped from 400(+) four engine heavy bombers.
1/Image
Using this document:

THE UNITED STATES STRATEGIC BOMBING SURVEY
Bombing Accuracy, USAAF Heavy and Medium Bombers in the ETO
MILITARY ANALYSIS DIVISION
First Edition 3 November 1945
Second Edition January 1947

You find both mission failures & gross errors were "excluded data"
2/ Image
And that both increased altitude and the number of combat boxes involved made CEP worse.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
Jun 3
There are sound photographic reasons I'm talking about Russia's domestic fuel tanker supply distribution chain breaking down.

Dead tanker trucks can't move fuel.

Plus additional tanker trucks diverted & moving from 🇷🇺 to 🇺🇦 can't deliver fuel domestically either.

Fuel🧵
1/
For additional photographic proof of 🇷🇺 tanker truck supply distribution breaking down, see here in Belgorod:


2/
And see here elsewhere in Crimea:



3/
Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
This manpower sweep problem is actually a lot worse for the Russians than Western military intelligence is capable of giving credit.

It takes a Russian labor gang about 3 hours to load 16 tons of wooden boxes w/o a convenient box car to truck line up. (below upper right)

🧵
1/ Image
Image
Image
Because the Russian Army doesn't use pallets, forklifts, telehandlers nor D-rings anywhere in their supply chain to strap down pallet loads.

You need massive numbers of conscripts to load and unload from train cars to trucks & vice versa.

See⬇️
2/
This has a whole lot of knock on effects in how the non-mechanized Russian supply system works in the age of GMLRS & drones.

You see here a commercial to tactical truck swap of wooden boxes in the Russian Army operational/strategic depths.

3/ Image
Read 8 tweets
Jun 2
This:

>>This is essentially a complete tactical bomber cell in a box, sized for a small mobile drone team operating at brigade level or below. It is not a strategic deep-strike weapon, and it is not pretending to be one.

...is "Federalized airpower."
Here are two key concepts for you --

1. Federalized Airpower - local ground unit as opposed to theater air commander asset

2. Kill Chains.

#1 has to do with every ground unit from platoon up owning a bit of airpower (a small UAV) outside central air command.
2/
#2 has to do with the ability of that UAV to call/deal lethal firepower for ground units w/o or w/little regard to superiors.

This drone kit is one of those subtle military technology developments that is in fact a game changer that brings those two ideas into reality.

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jun 2
I've spent the last few hours reposting my 2022 to date take down's of Alex Vershinin's "Truck beer math" (from the Nov. 2021 War on the Rocks article "Feeding the Bear") which I used to review this Tochnyi article⬇️

TLDR: Tochnyi screwed up & used Vershinin's disproven work.
1/ Image
Specifically this bit stating Russian trucks did three trips a day because they spent one hour loading and one hour unloading trucks.

That is, like Alex Vershinin, they assumed mechanized logistics loading times with pallets & forklifts⬇️

2/ Image
This is Alex Vershinin's truck "Beer Math" for comparison.

It assumes 45 miles vice 50 km, but both show the same mirror imaging of Western mechanized logistics on Red/Russian Army non-mechanized logistics.

3/ Image
Read 12 tweets
May 29
Oh My!

The electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) of these jammer mountings has got to suck.

How many "nulls" this jammer throws (AKA where no jamming energy transmits) will be substantial.

1/
I did a thread on this in 2024 when the first turtle tank jammers appeared.

2/
The basics of electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) studies of antenna mounting have been around since 1944.

3/
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(