Franz-Stefan Gady Profile picture
Nov 16 9 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
I just returned from another research trip to Ukraine with @KofmanMichael, @RALee85, & @konrad_muzyka. My colleagues and I gained lots of new insights into the current state of the war some of which we will share publicly in the near future. Here are a 5 quick thoughts:
1. Morale remains high, but exhaustion among troops & impact on attrition on materiel is visible. Defenses are holding while offensive operations continue along select parts of the front; innovative new tactical concepts are being tried out.
(In general, I am always impressed by the resiliency of the troops and their innovative bottom-up approaches to finding solutions to tactical problems & others.)
2. The importance of the FPV drone adaption battle and ability to scale FPV production for current & future military operations by both sides cannot be overstated. Lots of more info to come on that front!
3. This is & will remain an artillery-centric war. There is no compensation for the availability of concentrated & sustained tube & rocket artillery fire. Having said that ammunition constraints/rationing for most types of ammo are a reality. More to come here too.
4. Armor & protected mobility remains key for any sort of ground operation. No ground assault can happen without mechanized support. This is a lesson we have seen time and again during our past research trips.
5. The importance of Starlink for closing of kill-chains & pervasive ISR remains very high. Terrain, weather conditions and time of the day, however, still matter even on an 'transparent battlefield.'
There is lots of more info to share (e.g., on air defense) in the coming days & months. We also gained a better understanding into what is required for Ukraine to sustain this fight and what some of the more likelier scenarios for 2024 could be.
[Took down my earlier thread because of typos & incomplete sentences as a result of sleep deprivation.]

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More from @HoansSolo

Nov 15
#New (short) 🧵: @konrad_muzyka, @RALee85, @KofmanMichael, & I just returned from another research trip in Ukraine. We gained lots of new insights into the current state of war some of which we will share publicly. Here are a few quick thoughts. Image
1. Morale remains high, but exhaustion among troops and impact on attrition on materiel is visible.
2. The importance of the FPV drone adaption battle and ability to scale FPV production for current & future military operations by both sides cannot be overstated.
3. Along with the growing deployment of FPV drones the importance of electronic warfare is also increasing. Controlling or denying the electromagnetic spectrum is slated to grow in importance in 2024.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 17
I thought tanks were obsolete?

"Tanks, though increasingly vulnerable to drones, loitering munitions and modern anti-tank guided missiles, which strike from the top, remain the only platform on the battlefield combining mobility, protection and serious firepower."
Similar to how the IDF fought initially in the 1973 War.

“They [Russians in Ukraine] fought there in a single-corps fashion, instead of using combined arms tactics,” says Brigadier General Hisham Ibrahim, commander of the IDF's Armoured Corps.…
“We have been training in a combined-arms fashion at all levels for some years now," says Ibrahim. "We no longer see the tank as being capable of doing everything. The battlefield has changed; it’s much more crowded and built-up."
Read 8 tweets
Oct 9
Any upcoming military operation will also for the first time test some of the core tenets of the IDFs new & much debated ‘Decisive Victory’ operational concept.
The "Decisive Victory" concept has been specifically developed by the IDF over the past years to rapidly defeat “diffuse, rocket-based terror armies” (i.e Hamas & Hizbollah) Its success or failure can also perhaps teach other militaries much about the future of warfare.
“Decisive Victory” is meant to shorten any war through the rapid destruction of enemy capabilities. The latter is achieved by gaining information superiority by mapping an enemy's military system, incl. identifying key nodes (ie key leaders), unit movements, dispositions etc.
Read 15 tweets
Sep 12
#Neu: Österreich kauft 8 IRIS-T SLS/SLM Luftverteidigungssysteme. Eine Einheit/System besteht aus einer taktischen Einsatzzentrale, 3 Launcher mit jeweils 8 Lenkflugkörpern, einem Radarsystem und einer Materialerhaltungseinrichtung. Image
Vier der Systeme sollen über eine kurze Reichweite (SLS, 15 bis 20 Kilometer) bzw. mittlerere Reichweite (SLM, 40 bis 50 Kilometer) verfügen. In Summe also werden 24 Raketenwerfer.…
Wie ich mehrmals erwähnte, Sky Shield im 🇦🇹 Kontext ist primär als Einkaufsplattform zu verstehen.…
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4
Must-read by @KofmanMichael & @RALee85 in @WarOnTheRocks on Ukraine's counteroffensive at three months.

"Ukraine’s offensive neither is over, nor has it failed."…
"What the past 18 months of fighting illustrate is that Western nations need to develop a long-term plan to sustain and improve Ukraine’s war effort instead of pinning hopes on the next capability that will be introduced on the battlefield."
"Ukraine’s prospects depend on how well Western countries resource the Ukrainian war effort into the fall, replace lost equipment, and provide the necessary enablers — above all, artillery ammunition."
Read 4 tweets
Sep 4
6 kurze Punkte zur 🇺🇦 Gegenoffensive:

1. Der mediale Fokus liegt zu sehr auf die einzelnen 🇷🇺Verteidigungslinien. Durchbrüche an einzelnen Stellen der diversen Linien mögen taktisch signifikant sein, haben aber wenig Aussagekraft bezüglich strategischer Erfolge.
2. Es war immer klar, dass früher oder später die 🇷🇺 Verteidigungslinien durchbrochen werden können. Die Frage war immer unter welchen Bedingungen, vor allem ob die Ukraine noch genügend Reserven haben wird um in den Bewegungskrieg überzugehen und tief in den Raum zu stoßen.
Die 🇷🇺Verteidigungsstellungen sind konzipiert die 🇺🇦 abzunützen & nicht abzuwehren. Bei einer starken Abnützung reduzieren sich die Chancen auf einen strategischen Durchbruch der Ukraine erheblich.
Read 10 tweets

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