Thread by @HoansSolo

I just returned from another research trip to Ukraine with @KofmanMichael, @RALee85, & @konrad_muzyka. My colleagues and I gained lots of new insights into the current state of the war some of which we will share publicly in the near future. Here are a 5 quick thoughts:

1. Morale remains high, but exhaustion among troops & impact on attrition on materiel is visible. Defenses are holding while offensive operations continue along select parts of the front; innovative new tactical concepts are being tried out.

(In general, I am always impressed by the resiliency of the troops and their innovative bottom-up approaches to finding solutions to tactical problems & others.)

2. The importance of the FPV drone adaption battle and ability to scale FPV production for current & future military operations by both sides cannot be overstated. Lots of more info to come on that front!

3. This is & will remain an artillery-centric war. There is no compensation for the availability of concentrated & sustained tube & rocket artillery fire. Having said that ammunition constraints/rationing for most types of ammo are a reality. More to come here too.

4. Armor & protected mobility remains key for any sort of ground operation. No ground assault can happen without mechanized support. This is a lesson we have seen time and again during our past research trips.

5. The importance of Starlink for closing of kill-chains & pervasive ISR remains very high. Terrain, weather conditions and time of the day, however, still matter even on an 'transparent battlefield.'

There is lots of more info to share (e.g., on air defense) in the coming days & months. We also gained a better understanding into what is required for Ukraine to sustain this fight and what some of the more likelier scenarios for 2024 could be.

[Took down my earlier thread because of typos & incomplete sentences as a result of sleep deprivation.]