NEW: Housing costs take up three-and-a-half times as much of the budgets of the poor as of the rich.
We need to take housing costs into account to understand income poverty.
THREAD on @JCribbEcon, Tom Wernham & @xiaoweixu_’s new report on housing costs and incomes: [1/5]
Whether we deduct housing costs from incomes makes a big difference to poverty measurement – the poverty rate is around 17% ignoring housing costs, but 22% if we deduct them.
Trends over time also look very different when housing costs are deducted from incomes.
[2/5]
Accounting for housing costs when measuring poverty makes a big difference to who we think of as poor.
Many older adults are outright owner-occupiers with very low housing costs, so when we deduct housing costs, they are much less likely than children to be in poverty.
[3/5]
Measures of poverty which ignore housing costs are less effective at identifying those with low living standards.
Those in poverty after deducting housing costs are more likely to be deprived of essential items such as warm winter coats or fresh fruit and veg.
[4/5]
“Now more than ever, with rising mortgage interest rates and rising private rents for new lets, we need to take account of these housing costs and how they affect people’s disposable incomes.”
NEW: Sure Start generated widespread, long-lasting benefits for children in education, health, absences, and SEND.
Every £1 of up-front spending on Sure Start could generate around £2 in total benefits over the long run.
THREAD on our new @NuffieldFound-funded report:
[1/11]
@NuffieldFound This new report summarises our 10-year body of work on the effects of Sure Start, a network of ‘one-stop shops’ integrating services for families with children under 5. And the report provides a detailed cost-benefit analysis cutting across a range of child outcomes.
[2/11]
@NuffieldFound We find that access to a Sure Start centre from birth significantly improved the children’s educational attainment, with benefits lasting at least until GCSEs (age 16).
NEW: Reforms are needed to help people make good use of their pension wealth throughout their retirement and avoid exhausting their wealth too early.
New Pensions Review reports funded by @finan_fairness look at the rising numbers making complex, risky decisions in retirement:🧵
@finan_fairness People are increasingly saving for retirement in defined contribution (DC) pensions, which do not guarantee a regular income.
44% of those aged 55-64 had some DC pension wealth in 2006-07, rising to 59% in 2021-23. The average size of DC wealth at retirement is also growing.
@finan_fairness Median DC pension wealth at retirement (among those with some) is set to rise from £75k for those born in 1960-64 to £130k for those born in 1975-79.
Since 'pension freedoms' were introduced in 2015, over-55s have been able to access DC pensions any way they choose.
Established 25 years ago, Sure Start operated as a network of centres integrating services for families with young children under one roof, before being wound back since its peak in 2010.
Previous IFS work found it improved young people’s health and educational outcomes.
[2/9]
Access to a Sure Start centre during the early years reduced the probability of receiving a criminal conviction by 13%, and a custodial sentence in adolescence by 20%.
It did not have a major effect on less serious criminal outcomes: there was no effect on police cautions. [3/9]
NEW: Public sector pay has declined relative to the wider pay distribution, especially for higher earners.
@JCribbEcon @awmckendrick @m_dominguezp’s Green Budget chapter examines the pressures on public sector pay and the implications for recruitment & retention:
[THREAD: 1/11]
The new government has accepted in full the independent 2024 Pay Review Body recommendations, with average pay rises of 5.5%.
This is ahead of inflation, and close to private sector pay growth.
[2/11]
Pay in the public sector has evolved less favorably than in the private sector in recent years.
While private sector pay is 6% higher than it was in early 2019 in real terms, public sector pay is up by only 1%.
NEW: Health-related benefit claims have risen substantially across England and Wales, with increases in mental health claims across all ages.
There is little evidence of similar trends in other countries.
THREAD on our new report on health-related benefits:
[1/7]
There has been rapid growth in the health-related benefits caseload since 2019. 1 in 10 working-age people in England & Wales now claim a health-related benefit.
@OBR_UK projects further growth of 19% for incapacity benefits & 41% for disability benefits from 2023 to 2028. [2/7]
A higher caseload means higher spending. The UK now spends 1.7% of GDP on working-age health-related benefits.
This is up from 1.3% in 2019 but is still close to the OECD’s 2019 average of 1.6%. However, @OBR_UK forecasts that spending could rise to 2.1% of GDP by 2028.
NEW: Rising mortgage interest rates pushed 320,000 into poverty by December 2023, but only two-thirds of that will be captured by official statistics.
THREAD on Sam Ray-Chaudhuri, @TomWatersEcon & Tom Wernham’s @JRF_uk-funded living standards, poverty & inequality report:
[1/7]
Mortgage interest rates have risen rapidly since June 2022.
These increases have not impacted all mortgagors, but those whose fixed period ended recently have faced much higher interest rates, which can increase payments by thousands of pounds per year.
[2/7]
Higher mortgage interest rates have caused poverty among mortgagors to rise from 7.9% to 9.3%, equivalent to 320,000 more people.
Official statistics use average interest rates to calculate mortgage payments, and so will only capture two-thirds (230,000) of this rise.