Emil Kastehelmi Profile picture
Nov 19 6 tweets 2 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
Recent developments in Finland:

Over the past few days, Russia has sent an increasing number of migrants to Finland's borders. Finland has closed several border crossing points due to the authorities' threat assessment.

A video surfaced of the Russian operation. 1/
The video stops roughly at 64.547355, 30.960533. About 50 km from the Finnish border. The people are moving towards Finland.

The operation is orchestrated by Russian authorities. These people couldn't move in the border control zone if the Russians wouldn't let them. 2/ Image
Russia is bringing the migrants near the border control zone, where they are given bikes. They have to cycle to the border - it's a bureaucracy thing.

In the video, you can see bikes being unloaded from a vehicle. 3/ Image
There are no Russians trying to cross the border. They're sending people without necessary travel documents from countries like Yemen, Somalia and Syria.

Russia is taking advantage of poor people in the middle of winter, in freezing temperatures. 4/ Image
The Finnish Defense Forces has also started construction activities at the border. The construction of temporary barriers and obstacles has begun at the Vartius border station. 5/ Image
Russia's goal is to cause instability at the border and in wider society. In addition, there may be persons with questionable backgrounds among the migrants.

Finland is ready to close the whole eastern border if needed. 6/6

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More from @emilkastehelmi

Oct 18
The Russians have been attacking in the Avdiivka direction for a week.

Even though the intensity of the offensive has decreased, Russia has suffered large equipment losses and has made very limited progress, Ukraine is still in a potentially dangerous situation. 1/ Image
The general situation in Avdiivka is clear. Russians attempt to encircle the city from two sides. In order to do this, the Russians would have to advance through multiple fields and villages. After a week of fighting, Ukraine still has a 7-8 km gap between the Russian pincers. 2/
As the frontlines have been largely static for almost a year now, the Ukrainians have had time to prepare. The terrain mostly favors the defender, and there aren’t many surprising directions of advance. The Russians likely noticed this too during the last week. 3/
Read 14 tweets
Oct 10
There have been some security developments in Finland lately.

A gas pipeline and a data cable between 🇫🇮 and 🇪🇪 have been damaged by an external activity. The Finnish government doesn't want to say it's Russia, but there are not exactly many "external actors" in the area. 1/ Image
This is a strike against critical infrastructure, most likely by a country which has also threatened Finland in various ways before. If Finland gives a soft response, Russia will keep poking. At the moment there's been mostly talks about a possibly Nato-assisted investigation. 2/
At the same time there has been debate if the demilitarized status of strategically important Åland islands should be changed. The old agreements deny Finnish military activities in the area, such as exercises, fortifications or other preparatory measures. 3/
Read 4 tweets
Oct 7
Many people have asked for a map of events in the Gaza strip area today. In this thread, some main points and developments.

Hamas attacked on a wide front and quickly overran Israeli border defences in multiple areas. Hamas forces advanced into multiple border towns. 1/ Image
In addition to the map above, Hamas conducted sea operations and reportedly landed smaller units in the direction of the city of Ashkelon. Also claims of Hamas forces crossing the border in the southern Gaza area surfaced, but I haven't been able to confirm those yet. 2/
Israeli forces at the border were surprised and in some occasions had almost no time to react. A likely reason for this is immense failure of Israeli intelligence or failure of politicians and officials to react to intel reports. Deception by Hamas likely played a role, too. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Oct 7
The Israeli tracked vehicle losses are high. Today I have counted at least the following, mostly captured but some also damaged:

6x Merkava Mk.4 MBT

10x Achzarit APC

5x M1113 APC

2x Namer APC

On top of these, there are multiple wheeled vehicle losses for the IDF.
Merkava #1
Namer #1

Both captured, no major visual damage
Merkava #2

Captured. Graphic video, dead civilians.
Read 9 tweets
Sep 24
Ukraine has expanded its control of the areas west of Verbove, and armoured vehicles are operating beyond the first Surovikin line. At the same time, the villages of Andriivka and Klishchiivka were liberated south of Bakhmut.

Are we seeing a breakthrough? Time for a thread. 1/ Image
In September, Ukraine advanced a couple of kilometres in the fields west of Verbove, beyond the main defensive line. They also captured fortified positions south of Robotyne and continued further south. Russian counterattacks have not been able to recapture lost positions. 2/ Image
Ukraine is also now able to operate various armoured vehicles on the other side of the Surovikin line. Even though immediate Russian anti-tank capabilities are likely somewhat suppressed, larger Ukrainian troop concentrations and movements can still be seen from the air. 3/
Read 12 tweets
Sep 4
The situation in the Robotyne-Verbove area is developing in a positive direction for the Ukrainians. Ukraine has further penetrated the first Surovikin line near Verbove, now reaching the main trenchline.

Ukrainians have also overran Russian positions south of Robotyne. 1/ Image
It seems the Ukrainians have established a more permanent foothold in the outskirts of Verbove, and it's not just recon operations.

However, this isn't a breakthrough yet - we haven't seen quick maneuvers or Ukrainian armored vehicles operating beyond the dragon's teeth. 2/
I'm actually somewhat surprised the Ukrainians have managed to capture the positions south of Robotyne. It's still a bit unclear which parts are they holding, but I presume the larger trench complex is still under Russian control. 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets

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