Thread by @admcollingwood

The 'Conservative' Party is in far more trouble than widely reported in the press. They face near wipeout at the next election, losing in the process a great deal of their Parliamentary talent (such as it is). Let's crunch numbers to show what a mess they're in.

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It's well known that Tory polling numbers are disastrous. The Politico poll of polls has them on only 24% and Labour on 45% (left chart). These are the worst numbers since the Brexit constitutional crisis and related Parliamentary impasse before the 2019 election (right).

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But what's much less well accepted is just what a catastrophe that would be in terms of seats. The superb @PollingReportUK suggests the Conservatives could fall to 198 seats, with Labour on 354, a stunning majority of 156. Yet this forecast does not account for the...

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...most recent polling. @PollingReportUK has the Tories on 26% (left), because he has no November polling in his model (right). The most recent polls have the Tories on 19%, which dragged down the above Politico average to 24%, and would surely reduce the seat projection.

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A year or so ago, the Tories could at least console themselves that Rishi Sunak was personally more popular than the party, and personal leadership popularity is often important in British elections. Yet his numbers are also declining from +4 approve to -22 disapprove.

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But it gets worse for the Tories. Reform is currently at 9% in the poll of polls. As Mr Sunak steers his government toward SW1 centrism, it is conceivable that they could pick up more. And as the ever-perceptive @oflynnsocial has pointed out, if Nigel Farage returned...

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...to lead them, it would not be difficult "to envisage 15 or even 20% vote shares being recorded." It has happened before. Last time an SW1 Centrist Tory government seemed to be drifting from problem to problem, Reform (then The Brexit Party) polled at 22% under Farage.

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Even 15% would probably be enough to sink the Conservative Party, given the First Past the Post system. Let's look at some constituencies at the 2019 election to explain why. In Sunderland Central (below), The Brexit Party likely robbed the Tories, despite finishing third.

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Further, Reform votes would not be evenly distributed. In Barnsley Central, for example, The Brexit Party managed to finish second with over 30% of the vote (below). If @TiceRichard and (potentially) Mr Farage have sense, they'll do serious damage in individual seats.

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Worse still, these numbers come *before* Britain enters recession. Given key European economies are already contracting, and given UK construction activity is down, and unemployment up, it seems recession is on the way. This will make it even...

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https://twitter.com/philippilk/status/1724733063962280016?t=KdDt6-KkwrTF26UG-hu1Vg&s=19

...more difficult for the Tories to claw back in the polls. The record number of seats was Labour's 418 in 1997. This gave Labour a 179 seat majority. We are now in the zone where a similar result is possible at the next election. In fact, @ElectCalculus forecasts that...

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...the result will be even worse than 1997 for the Tories, with Labour winning 441 seats and the Conservatives reduced to 135 (which would probably go down as the worst election result for more than a hundred years). Yet few political commentators seem to have recognised...

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...the stark truth that the Tories are on course for an epochal defeat. Intrinsic to this, a great many of their more prominent names represent at risk seats that look likely to fall. I'm sure there are more, but a cursory scan of well known Tory MPs and their majorities...

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...gives:

Theresa Villiers (2.1%)
Iain Duncan Smith (2.6%)
Dominic Raab (4.4%)
Steve Baker (7.7%)
Jonny Mercer (11.1%)
Graham Brady (11.2%)
Lee Anderson (11.7%)
John Redwood (11.9%)
Mariam Cates (14.5%)
Jeremy Hunt (14.6%)
Grant Shapps (21.1%).

CONCLUSION BELOW ⤵️

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No political commentator who claims to have serious views on the future of British politics -- and Britain -- should ignore this. For instance, a vicious battle for the soul of the Conservative Party will take place after the election. But it will be decided by those...

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...who avoided the great election cull. That matters, as key members of one faction or another might lose their seats. Equally what legislation would a Starmer Ministry with a huge majority pass, because they'll be able to push through almost anything?

ENDS