Thread by @sambendett

1/ QUICK THREAD on the statements made by Dmitry Peskov (no relation to the Kremlin spokesman), CEO of Russia's National Technological Initiative Platform, on whether "Russia can lead in drone development pace". His statements were published yesterday by the Russian state media.

2/ "Russian specialists test new UAV technologies faster than anyone in the world and the country has all chances to occupy the leading positions on the international market" - Peskov's opening statement confirms a significant defense R&D influenced by the invasion of Ukraine.

3/ This is not the first time Russian officials claim their country can take up a leading position in the global drone market - similar statements were made in 2020, 2021 and early 2022. Yet over the past 2 years, Ukraine, China, Iran and Turkey have significantly advanced...

4/... in drone/UAV development, taking up key positions in categories such as small quadcopters, FPV types, mid- and long-range kamikaze drones and even long-range combat drones. Yet Russia's UAV advantage is in its Orlan-10 ISR workhorse, and now a Lancet kamikaze lineup.

5/ While Russia is constantly marketing the Orlan-10 and Orion drones at intl. arms expos, there aren't too many customers yet, besides a few former Soviet states and Myanmar that bought Orlan-10 drones. Russia tries to sell the KUB loitering drone, but to no success - at the same time...

6/ ...the Russian MOD explicitly states the Lancet drone is not yet available for export given high demand at the front - indicating a growing interest in that particular drone. Its also unclear if its Orion MALE UAV can find enough customers since it had a limited role...

7/... in combat. Peskov then states: "Our country enjoys a unique chance... as we master new technologies faster than anyone in the world today (due to war in Ukraine). Everybody looks at us and repeats what we are doing."

8/ In fact, Ukraine has led and in many ways continues to lead many drone developments that Russia in copied - quadcopter, FPV and other drone uses and tactics. And obviously Russia copied Iranian Shahed technology that continues to improve as Iran launches new drone types.

9/ Peskov further says: "I do not see any other moment that coincides in time and space, any other national chance for unprecedented rapid development. There is nothing even close to us in the whole specter of technologies that we deal with."

10/ While Peskov is right that Russian drone and UAV R&D ecosystem is rapidly evolving, Ukraine's own efforts are also at the very leading edge - as are those of the US, Turkey ands Iran. Peksov also conveniently forgets that the Russian drone industry is 90% dependent on China.

11/ He further states: "In the coming years, some countries can disappear from the face of the earth simply because... they are unable to counter a major drone attack. The UAV industry is revolutionizing rather than evolving. The set of technologies changes every several months."

12/ In his comment above, he may be referring to the conclusion of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) dispute, with Armenia losing a war in 2020 due to Azerbaijan's drone force, with the final abandonment of the NK region by ethnic Armenians altogether this year.

13/ Peskov may also reference the ongoing war between Israel and Gaza and the use of all types of drones by all belligerents, including Iran. He may also reference Houthi long-range drone strikes against KSA and UAE, and Russia's own drone strikes against Ukraine infrastructure.

14/ Peskov's final statement: "Your authority spreads to the point which your drone can reach. There is (national) sovereignty where the drone can fly and it is different where it cannot. The new world is created like that and it concerns not only the frontline."

15/ The point above refers to the agility of countries to counter adversary drones and major losses that can result if such attacks are not countered. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war is a stark reminder of that. Yet Peskov's statements, while obviously directed at Ukraine...

16/…seem to ignore Ukraine's agility to fight on equal terms against the growing Russian drone fleet by mobilizing the industry, society and international assistance. And earlier, Russian commentators remarked that Russia's best chancer is to compete against Iran and Turkey, and not...

17/...market leaders like the US, Israel and China. Regardless, Russia will continue to market its UAVs abroad, and some types - like combat FPVs - may in fact give Moscow a key market niche following their mass-scale use in Ukraine.