Thread by @ejustin46

The "devil's pact" between the VIRUS and the ASYMPTOMATICS !

In an exciting study, researchers have shown, how human behavior can change the evolution of the virus.

2) When the virus evolved from the Wuhan strain to the Delta, due to the measures to limit its transmission, the virus adapted and evolved, by multiplying by 5 the maximum viral load and by 1.5 in the nb of days before the viral load peaks.

3) When Omicron appeared, researchers discovered that BA.1 showed an earlier peak time and shorter viral shedding compared with the pre-Alpha and Alpha variants (Fig. 4b, c).

4) The reduction of the incubation period, from 6.65 days for the pre-Alpha, 5.00 days for the Alpha, 4.50 days for the Beta, 4.41 days for the Delta, and 3.42 days for the Omicron variants, generated more asymptomatics.

5) From the perspective of virus evolution, which maximizes the basic/effective reproduction number, the evolution of a higher proportion of asymptomatic infection is always favored, because transmissions are not limited, when those infected individuals are not isolated.

6) More asymptomatics, and therefore even fewer measures to limit the spread of the virus, which could thus spread almost "invisibly", in as many hosts as possible.
A pact with this evil virus, where the losers are humans.

Thanks for reading 🙏

7) Reference


FYI
@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RaffyFlynnArt
@RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1
@Rrenzokutai @triangle24
@gianlucac1 @siamosolocani
@crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates nature.com/articles/s4146…

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RaffyFlynnArt @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @Rrenzokutai @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers JN.1 WAVES with HIGH VIRAL PEAKS in wastewater data
(Part 2)

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers 8) In previous tweets we explained that the characteristics of Omicrons were: 
- a viral load which arrives earlier and lasts less time 
- an increase in asymptomatics
Virus transmission occurs from an infected individual to susceptible individuals

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers 9) ...depending on the infected individual’s infectivity, which depends on their viral load.
Why, if the viral load is lower per individual, are we seeing such viral peaks? To understand this, we need to go back to the transmission potential RTP

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers 10) ...which is calculated from the sum of newly infected individuals [number of contacted individuals per day] × [transmission probability per contacted individual]).
The paradox is that the more asymptomatic people you have (who contaminate without knowing it),

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers 11) ... the faster the transmission, especially if the peak occurs earlier.
And this, even if the viral peak per individual is lower than in the pre-alpha variants.
JN.1 characterizes an evolution of a “stealth” phenotype showing a decreased peak viral load per individual

@DavidJoffe @RadCentrism @UseBy2022 @RealCheckMarker @RolandBakerIII @arijitchakrav @white_bite @AltenbergLee @xabitron1 @triangle24 @gianlucac1 @siamosolocani @crwequine @kasza_leslie @outbreakupdates @NjbBari3 @MeetJess @LauraMiers 12) ...with a high proportion of asymptomatic infection.
We are therefore witnessing a decoupling between the evolution of virus phenotype and the evolution of clinical phenotype.

Thanks for reading 🙏