I'm disappointed by the misleading article from NYT with a sensationalist headline, inaccurately claiming "In less than two months, more than twice as many women and children have been reported killed in Gaza than in Ukraine after two years of war." Here's why it's inaccurate🧵:
2/ The article asserts that "More than twice as many women and children have already been reported killed in Gaza than in Ukraine after almost two years of Russian attacks, according to United Nations estimates. To verify this claim, I checked UN-provided numbers
3/ Firstly, the given number is not verified; it's a claim from the Gaza Health Ministry, provided to the UN. This is markedly different from UN-verified deaths in Ukraine, as one is a claim from an involved party, while the other represents independently verified casualties.
4/ In addition to the UN, independent 3rd parties tried to civilian losses in Ukraine, particularly in Mariupol. The AP discovered more than 10,000 new graves in Mariupol alone, suggesting a death toll potentially three times higher than the initial estimate of at least 25,000.
5/ When assessing unverified numbers from officials (consistency in data sources), it's important to compare them with Ukrainian statements. In a February 2023 statement, the Ukrainian war crimes prosecutor estimated that over 100,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed.
6/ Moreover, in an August 2022 article, NYT stated, "And in Mariupol .... Ukrainian officials believe that at least 22,000 people were killed. They cite witness accounts, satellite imagery of mass graves, and footage showing bodies in the streets."
7/ This is not a competition over civilian losses. An inaccurate methodological approach leads to false conclusions, whether deliberate or not, and undermines what's left of the credibility of news sources like NYT.
8/ The decision to blend confirmed data with unverified statements in the report remains uncertain — whether a mistake or intentional. A revision and a follow-up statement are hoped for. Please share for maximum attention.
Despite progress, including holding Pokrovsk, inflicting tangible casualties, and striking Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure, it would be dangerous for Europe to assume that “Ukraine has this.”
The battlefield situation has improved but remains suboptimal.
🧵Thread:
2/ The recent negative dynamics in Kupyansk show that the fundamental issue of Ukraine’s military remains: it is forced to operate in a fire-brigade fashion, reinforcing threatened sectors of the front such as Pokrovsk at the cost of other directions.
3/ As our team’s investigation into desertions shows, Russian troops are abandoning their posts at increasingly growing rate. Yet desertions still remain more frequent on the Ukrainian side, and Moscow is more effective at returning its troops to the front.
The Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com has published a photo of a document with Russian losses over 8 months, from January to September 2025. According to it, total KIA numbers 86,744, roughly 10,843 per month, which is very close to our earlier estimates. Total losses are 281,550
2/ The published document contains a breakdown by units. Our team will work tonight to verify whether the numbers match the Russian documents we have on hand, but at first glance, it appears authentic. Notably, over 33,966 are listed as MIA, so the majority of them are likely KIA
3/ This is very close to our earlier estimates published in July and August, which pointed to 8,400–10,500 KIA per month. These estimates have proven to be quite accurate, demonstrating that our methodology is precise and reliable
About 60% of the deep strikes on Russian territory are carried out by Ukrainian Fire Point FP-1 drones, which with a smaller payload can reach targets 1,500km within Russia and have sophisticated software that has proved resistant to EW jamming.
🧵Thread:
2/ Olena Kryzhanivska, an expert on Ukrainian weapons systems, notes that the FP-1s cost only about $55,000 each and are now being churned out at a rate more than 100 a day. Ukraine is also using the heavier and more expensive Lyutyi drone, which has a range of 2,000km
3/ There are also reports that FP-5 “Flamingo” cruise missiles have begun to be used. They are much faster than the drones, flying just 50 metres above the ground, with a range of over 3,000km and packing a huge punch thanks to a 1,150kg warhead
Russia is resorting to increasingly drastic measures to find recruits. The list has grown: beyond coercing detainees and conscripts, Moscow is now pressuring businesses to supply contract soldiers while further raising enlistment payments. 🧵Thread with all recent updates:
2/ Thanks to recent updates from @CITeam_en and iStories, we’ve learned that In Russia’s Primorsky region, officials told local business leaders they must help recruit men for the front. Employers were instructed to pressure their staff into signing contracts or contribute money
3/ In Voronezh oblast, officials sharply raised the bonus for signing a contract with the Defense Ministry. Governor Alexander Gusev boosted the regional payout from 505,000 rubles to 2.1 million. With federal payments added, the total now stands at 2.5 million rubles (~$27,000)
Since January, 21 of Russia’s 38 major refineries, facilities that process crude into fuels such as gasoline and diesel, have been hit, a new BBC Verify investigation found. The tally of successful attacks is already 48% higher than the total for all of 2024. 🧵Thread:
2/ BBC analysis shows reported attacks hit a record in August, when Ukrainian drones targeted 14 refineries, followed by eight more in September. Some of the strikes reached facilities deep inside Russia.
3/ In late September, the Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat refinery in Bashkortostan was struck twice. Satellite images showed smoke rising from the facility, which sits more than 1,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border.
Russia is exploiting economic struggles in developing nations, luring thousands of Africans with promises of escaping poverty - only for many to end up KIA or missing. Key findings from Frontelligence Insight’s analysis of unique mercenary records in Africa and the Middle East:
2/ According to available data, Egypt is the leading contributor, with 291 documented cases. While the full roster of mercenaries remains incomplete, Egyptians make up nearly 25% of the more than 1200 records we have manually reviewed.
3/ We requested materials from the Ukrainian project @hochuzhit_com, which deals with POWs from all countries fighting for Russia, to see whether they have matching documents. Their records confirmed several individuals have been listed in Russia as missing in action: