I'm disappointed by the misleading article from NYT with a sensationalist headline, inaccurately claiming "In less than two months, more than twice as many women and children have been reported killed in Gaza than in Ukraine after two years of war." Here's why it's inaccurate🧵:
2/ The article asserts that "More than twice as many women and children have already been reported killed in Gaza than in Ukraine after almost two years of Russian attacks, according to United Nations estimates. To verify this claim, I checked UN-provided numbers
3/ Firstly, the given number is not verified; it's a claim from the Gaza Health Ministry, provided to the UN. This is markedly different from UN-verified deaths in Ukraine, as one is a claim from an involved party, while the other represents independently verified casualties.
4/ In addition to the UN, independent 3rd parties tried to civilian losses in Ukraine, particularly in Mariupol. The AP discovered more than 10,000 new graves in Mariupol alone, suggesting a death toll potentially three times higher than the initial estimate of at least 25,000.
5/ When assessing unverified numbers from officials (consistency in data sources), it's important to compare them with Ukrainian statements. In a February 2023 statement, the Ukrainian war crimes prosecutor estimated that over 100,000 Ukrainian civilians have been killed.
6/ Moreover, in an August 2022 article, NYT stated, "And in Mariupol .... Ukrainian officials believe that at least 22,000 people were killed. They cite witness accounts, satellite imagery of mass graves, and footage showing bodies in the streets."
7/ This is not a competition over civilian losses. An inaccurate methodological approach leads to false conclusions, whether deliberate or not, and undermines what's left of the credibility of news sources like NYT.
8/ The decision to blend confirmed data with unverified statements in the report remains uncertain — whether a mistake or intentional. A revision and a follow-up statement are hoped for. Please share for maximum attention.
Despite dense cloud cover blocking satellite, drone, and optical surveillance of the Avdiivka battlefield, our team continued the analysis using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) systems. Here is what we learned about the current situation. 🧵Thread:
2/ Before we move further, let's clarify what Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) is. It's a technology that employs radar to generate images of the Earth's surface. By capturing and processing reflected waves, SAR provides detailed imagery regardless of weather conditions or daylight
3/
We combined SAR data with on-the-ground testimonials and open-source video materials to gain comprehensive insights.
Some Key Observations
- Vehicle Reduction: In contrast to the initial month of assaults, russian forces are employing fewer vehicles in smaller numbers.
Amid the ongoing debate about the number of operational Ka-52 helicopters on the frontlines, I've analyzed and compiled imagery of bases used for helicopter operations by the Russians. The findings are summarized in this 🧵Thread:
1/
2/ Based on acquired Maxar images from November 1st, the Taganrog airbase hosted at least 4 operational Ka-52 helicopters on its tarmac. The surrounding activity indicates their use, a fact further supported by their absence in earlier shots.
3/ The Buturlinovka Airbase accommodates a minimum of 5 Ka-52 helicopters. Although Helicopter #7 is not distinctly visible in this image, the next image includes a slightly older photo of the same helicopter at the same location for clarity.
BBC published an article in Russian titled "Does it make sense for Ukraine to fight for Avdiivka?" In this article, several experts argue that Avdiivka lacks military significance. I disagree with this assessment, finding it misleading. Here's why. 🧵Thread:
1/
2/ While I agree that the assault on Avdiivka likely has political reasons, as I discussed on the day the assault started, focusing solely on political aspects is not only inaccurate but also dangerous.
3/ The article states, "Most experts agree that it has exclusively political, not military, significance for the Kremlin."
I strongly disagree with it - Avdiivka has played a key military role in Donetsk since 2014.
In line with our earlier projection this week, russian forces have gained partial/temporary control over the eastern portions of Stepove. In this report, we analyze forthcoming developments and explain how we accurately foresaw recent advancements. 🧵Thread:
2/ Despite negative assessments of russian tactics and high losses near Avdiivka, their overall approach has seen partial success. They managed to breach defense positions north of Avdiivka, reaching the railroad.
3/ This jeopardizes Avdiivka's resupply routes, creating few options for the russians - they can either seize Stepove and attempt to take Berdychi or take control of AKHZ. Either scenario puts pressure on the primary supply lines to Avdiivka.
I'd like to introduce a concise yet important interview with a seasoned Ukrainian company commander, known by the callsign Zmiy (Snake). He's a veteran of the 2014 and 2022 wars and offers direct insights into crucial issues. Strong language ahead.
🧵Thread:
1. Hello! Please introduce yourself and briefly tell us about you.
- My name is not important, as during the war I use only the callsign "Snake”. This is my Second Punic War. Between wars, I managed to find myself in the IT field. Right now, I am a company commander.
2. When did the war for Ukraine start for you?
- The war started for me as far back as 2013. I was living the typical life of an average Ukrainian. It was a weekend, and I woke up after a night out and
A great memo clarifying the facts about US aid to Ukraine, expertly debunking myths with a direct approach. Written by @LukeDCoffey for the US think-tank @HudsonInstitute. Here are the key points from "Fourteen Facts about US Aid to Ukraine."
🧵Thread:
- The US is not writing “blank checks” to Ukraine, and most of the money allocated to help Ukraine never leaves the US. About $70 billion of authorized aid for Ukraine stays in the US, backing the top-tier defense industry and generating well-paying jobs in 38 states.
- There has never been more accountability for US military assistance than what is available for Ukraine aid. After Russia's invasion, the US government formed the Ukraine Oversight Interagency Working Group, with over 160 officials from 20 federal agencies overseeing US aid.