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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Nov 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID-19 Tracker, Nov 27, 2023
❄️ The winter surge is coming! ❄️

Today:
🔹886,000 daily cases
🔹1 in 54 infectious (1.9%)

In 4 weeks (Christmas Day):
🔹1.5 million daily cases
🔹1 in 32 infectious (3.1%)

1/
 CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR December 25, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 1,031 (69% higher) New Daily Cases 1,500,000 % of Population Infectious 3.14% (1 in 32 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 75,000 to 300,000
For Nov 27, what is the COVID risk in the office, a classroom, or at a social gathering?

Bad.

10 people (daycare, team meeting) = 17% chance someone is infectious

30 people (classroom) = 43% chance

50 people (lecture, restaurant) = 61% chance

2/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.9% 2 3.7% 3 5.5% 4 7.2% 5 8.9% 6 10.6% 7 12.3% 8 13.9% 9 15.5% 10 17.1% 15 24.5% 20 31.2% 25 37.4% 30 43.0% 35 48.1% 40 52.7% 50 60.8% 75 75.4% 100 84.6% 150 94.0% 200 97.6% 300 99.6% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
For Dec 25, what's the risk of COVID?

8-10 people (small gathering) = 25% chance someone is infectious

20 people (visiting two families) = 47% chance

100 people (flight, restaurant, etc.) = 96% chance

Limit gatherings, #MaskUp, #VaxUp, Test/Isolate, #CleanTheAir

3/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.1% 2 6.2% 3 9.1% 4 12.0% 5 14.7% 6 17.4% 7 20.0% 8 22.5% 9 24.9% 10 27.3% 15 38.0% 20 47.1% 25 54.9% 30 61.6% 35 67.2% 40 72.1% 50 79.7% 75 90.8% 100 95.9% 150 99.2% 200 99.8% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
Zooming out to the full pandemic shows the harm of the 8th U.S. Covid wave.

🔹More daily infections that 2/3 of the pandemic
🔹25x more actual than reported cases
🔹44,000 #LongCovid cases/day eventually resulting from these infections
🔹Winter peak similar to last year

4/ There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000
Here's the full PMC Dashboard for Nov 27 to Dec 25.

You can read the full report here:

Thank you for your continued questions, suggestions, gratitude, and sharing across other platforms. Please offer any success stories to encourage others.

5/ pmc19.com/data/
There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR Dece...

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 28
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Transmission typically accelerates in mid-November.

We are currently in a relative 'lull.' We estimate about a quarter-million new daily infections with 1 in 185 people actively infectious. Still bad, likely to get worse.

1/9 🧵 year over year graph
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

Our forecast through November 8 calls for flat transmission.

Nothing yet indicates the onset of a winter wave, but it would also be atypical for the lull to last much longer than another 2-3 weeks.

2/9 🧵 Graph of recent transmission and current forecast
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 27, 2025 (US)

We estimate 264,000 new daily infections during this 'lull' period.

Biobot data have returned. Our substitute data from WWS last week correlated r=.97 (near perfect) with that, but Biobot did retroactively increase recent estimates.

3/9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 21
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

SARS-CoV-2 transmission has fallen.
🔹1 in 191 (0.5%) actively infectious
🔹"Lull" levels at 20% of the summer peak
🔹255,000 new daily infections (still concerning)

Many will knock out higher-risk activities the next 2-4 weeks.
🧵1/11 Graph of the 11 waves, shows current lull.
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

"Lull" transmission remains dangerous:
🔹1.8 million estimated new weekly infections
🔹>90,000 estimated new #LongCOVID conditions from this week's infections
🔹>500 excess deaths to result from this week's infections

🧵2/11 Infections Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 191 (0.5%) New Daily Infections 255,000 Infections the Past Week 1,800,000 Infections in 2025 191,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.69 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 13,000 to 51,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 90,000 to 360,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 70 to 120 from New Daily Infections Excess Deaths ...
PMC COVlD Update, Oct 20, 2025 (U.S.)

Exposure risk during "lull" transmission remains high when engaging in many social interactions.

Interacting with 25 people yields a 12% chance of exposure. 100 people? 41% chance of exposure, assuming no testing/isolation.

🧵3/11 Number of People Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 0.5% 2 1.0% 3 1.6% 4 2.1% 5 2.6% 10 5.1% 15 7.6% 20 10.0% 25 12.3% 30 14.5% 50 23.1% 75 32.5% 100 40.8% 200 64.9% 300 79.2%
Read 11 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 11
PMC COVlD Wave Update (Europe)
11 October 2025 🧵

The PMC website includes an international directory of websites with COVlD wastewater monitoring. It is more up to date than the directories of the EU and WHO.

Let's review what's happening in Europe...

1/ world map, nations with surveillance shown in blue. URL says pmc19.com/global
Data in #Austria show a rising COVlD wave. The x axis (bottom) has infrequent labels, but the data shown go through October 8th.

Find more here:

2/ pmc19.com/austrialongitudinal graph
COVlD levels have been percolating in #Belgium, with "moderate" levels overall.

The transmission pattern is similar across regions. Plants at Namur-Brumagne and Oostende report "high" levels.



3/ pmc19.com/belgiumheat map and longitudinal graph
Read 20 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 5
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/9

An estimated 1 in 81 people are actively infectious during the ongoing 11th wave.

The "shutdown" has created a blackout at the state level.

Transmission is half that of the peak one month ago, and we anticipate a relative national "lull" in early-to-mid November, albeit still at dangerous levels.

Our model uses a combination of CDC and Biobot data, so we are able to estimate national statistics despite the CDC data going offline. On the map, note that Puerto Rico continues to update; they use a CDC-style system but were dropped by the CDC long ago. For full methodology, review the technical appendix on the website.Heat map, grayed out. 1 in 81 estimated actively infectious, or 602,000 new daily infections, per wastewater-derived estimates.
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/9

#DuringCOVID is today. We estimate >600,000 new daily infections. This is about half the peak on September 6.

Notice current levels are similar to the estimated peaks of the first 3 waves. 11 wave graph
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Oct 6, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/9

Weekly estimates:
🔹4.5 million infections
🔹>200,000 resulting long-term health conditions
🔹>1,300 resulting excess deaths Infections Oct 6, 2025 pmc19.com/data Proportion Actively Infectious 1 in 81 (1.2%) New Daily Infections 602,000 Infections the Past Week 4,540,000 Infections in 2025 189,000,000 Cumulative Infections per Person 4.69 Long COVID Long COVID Cases Resulting 30,000 to 120,000 from New Daily Infections Long COVID Cases Resulting 227,000 to 910,000 from New Weekly Infections Excess Deaths Excess Deaths Resulting 170 to 280 from New Daily Infe...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 3
BREAKING: 3 State Pharmacy Boards Still Block COVlD Boosters without a Prescription

ACIP voted against prescriptions for boosters & 47 states + DC follow that guidance.

Georgia, Missouri, & Louisiana require prescriptions.

Key points in my letter to the pharmacy boards. 🧵1/7 Map shows only Missouri, Louisiana, and Georgia are blocking residents from routing COVlD boosters unless they have a prescription.
Georgia law indicates that the pharmacy board is to follow ACIP. They do not dictate further nuance. Georgia continues to require prescriptions, going against the spirit of the law, ACIP, and 47 other states.

🧵2/7 Georgia: State law does NOT require a prescription if it is a “vaccine that is included on the adult immunization schedule recommended by the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP)”1 ACIP voted against prescriptions, and 47 states have accepted that schedule. The law does not mention a CDC Director sign-off, which may be delayed months. Act now to save lives. 1. https://law.justia.com/codes/georgia/title-43/chapter-34/article-2/section-43-34-26-1/
Louisiana law tells the pharmacy board to follow ACIP. ACIP says do not require a prescription, and 47 other states agree.

The Louisiana pharmacy board continues to require a prescription.

🧵3/7 Louisiana: State law does NOT require a prescription if the “vaccine is administered in conformance with the most current immunization administration protocol as set forth by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Advisory Committee on Immunization Practice.” 2 ACIP voted against prescriptions, and 47 states have accepted that protocol. The law does not mention a CDC Director sign-off, which may be delayed months. Act now to save lives. 2. https://law.justia.com/codes/louisiana/revised-statutes/title-37/rs-37-1218-1/
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Oct 1
I remember when they said kids don't transmit COVlD much because they are short, small, and have tiny lungs. They lied.
I remember when they said COVlD doesn't transmit in schools. They lied.
I remember when they said COVlD is mild in kids without understanding post-acute sequelae. They lied.
Read 25 tweets

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