Share this page!

Enter URL or ID to Unroll

You can paste full URL like: https://x.com/threadreaderapp/status/1644127596119195649
or just the ID like: 1644127596119195649

How to get URL link on X (Twitter) App

  1. On the Twitter thread, click on or icon on the bottom
  2. Click again on or Share Via icon
  3. Click on Copy Link to Tweet
  4. Paste it above and click "Unroll Thread"!
  5. More info at Twitter Help
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Nov 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Scrolly
PMC COVID-19 Tracker, Nov 27, 2023
❄️ The winter surge is coming! ❄️

Today:
🔹886,000 daily cases
🔹1 in 54 infectious (1.9%)

In 4 weeks (Christmas Day):
🔹1.5 million daily cases
🔹1 in 32 infectious (3.1%)

1/
 CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR December 25, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 1,031 (69% higher) New Daily Cases 1,500,000 % of Population Infectious 3.14% (1 in 32 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 75,000 to 300,000
For Nov 27, what is the COVID risk in the office, a classroom, or at a social gathering?

Bad.

10 people (daycare, team meeting) = 17% chance someone is infectious

30 people (classroom) = 43% chance

50 people (lecture, restaurant) = 61% chance

2/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.9% 2 3.7% 3 5.5% 4 7.2% 5 8.9% 6 10.6% 7 12.3% 8 13.9% 9 15.5% 10 17.1% 15 24.5% 20 31.2% 25 37.4% 30 43.0% 35 48.1% 40 52.7% 50 60.8% 75 75.4% 100 84.6% 150 94.0% 200 97.6% 300 99.6% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
For Dec 25, what's the risk of COVID?

8-10 people (small gathering) = 25% chance someone is infectious

20 people (visiting two families) = 47% chance

100 people (flight, restaurant, etc.) = 96% chance

Limit gatherings, #MaskUp, #VaxUp, Test/Isolate, #CleanTheAir

3/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.1% 2 6.2% 3 9.1% 4 12.0% 5 14.7% 6 17.4% 7 20.0% 8 22.5% 9 24.9% 10 27.3% 15 38.0% 20 47.1% 25 54.9% 30 61.6% 35 67.2% 40 72.1% 50 79.7% 75 90.8% 100 95.9% 150 99.2% 200 99.8% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
Zooming out to the full pandemic shows the harm of the 8th U.S. Covid wave.

🔹More daily infections that 2/3 of the pandemic
🔹25x more actual than reported cases
🔹44,000 #LongCovid cases/day eventually resulting from these infections
🔹Winter peak similar to last year

4/ There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000
Here's the full PMC Dashboard for Nov 27 to Dec 25.

You can read the full report here:

Thank you for your continued questions, suggestions, gratitude, and sharing across other platforms. Please offer any success stories to encourage others.

5/ pmc19.com/data/
There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR Dece...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jan 5
We told you that 109,000-175,000 Americans would died of COVID (excess deaths) in 2025.

Today, the CDC estimates 101,000 deaths/year (flat from Oct 2022 to Sep 2024), and likely higher when considering more nebulous non-acute excess deaths (heart attack 6 months later).
1/5
The CDC estimates are actually higher than I would have guessed, given their methodology, which models estimates based on easily countable factors in healthcare and expert input on multiplier values. It lends credence to the PMC upper bound of excess deaths of 175,000/yr.
2/5
What's troubling is the CDC has annual mortality flat. My expectation based on mortality displacement and Swiss Re data is that it should be declining. If is stays flat, we're running on something like breast+prostate cancer or lung cancer deaths per year in perpetuity.
3/5
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 31, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Dec 29, 2025
🧵1/10

Happy New Year's Eve! #nye

Based on today's CDC data, we estimate 1 in 51 Americans are actively infectious with COVlD. That's nearly 1 million new daily infections.

Be wise. Vax up, mask up. #oneofthetwo Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates.
🧵2/10

Many states are surging presently. True levels are higher than shown in most places due to state-level reporting lags. Alabama Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Alaska Low 1 in 93 (1.1%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 201 (0.5%) Arkansas High* 1 in 32 (3.1%) California Very Low 1 in 351 (0.3%) Colorado Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 33 (3.1%) Delaware Low 1 in 90 (1.1%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 300 (0.3%) Florida Very Low 1 in 282 (0.4%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 125 (0.8%) Guam Very Low 1 in 585 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 855 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 221 (0.5%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 41 (2.5%) Indiana Very High 1 in 14 (6.9%) Iowa Low 1 in 69 (1.4%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Kentucky High 1 in 34 (2.9...
🧵3/10

Although many states are surging, do not feel false security in "low" level states. For example, NY has terrible reporting quality with the CDC currently. Missouri Moderate* 1 in 56 (1.8%) Montana Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 18 (5.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 122 (0.8%) New Hampshire Moderate* 1 in 42 (2.4%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 113 (0.9%) New Mexico Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) New York Very Low* 1 in 127 (0.8%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 125 (0.8%) North Dakota Moderate* 1 in 43 (2.3%) Ohio High 1 in 28 (3.6%) Oklahoma Very High 1 in 25 (4.0%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 170 (0.6%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Rhode Island Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) South Carolina Low 1 in 84 (1.2%) South Dakota High 1 in 33 (3.0%) Tennessee Moder...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 15, 2025
PMC COVID Update, Dec 15, 2025 (U.S.)

In the latest CDC data, 15 states have moderate to very high transmission.
🔹1 in 63 estimated actively infectious nationally, rising fastest in the Midwest & Northeast
🔹Very High: Indiana
🔹High: Nebraska, Vermont, Connecticut

🧵1/9 Heat map from CDC data and PMC estimates of 1 in 63 actively infectious and >700,000 new daily infections, based on wastewater derived estimates using models noted in the Technical Appendix at the website listed in the image.
PMC estimates 1 in 26 people in Indiana are infectious and 1 in 39 in Connecticut.

MI, MS, and AR may have higher levels than shown due to poor reporting.

States AL to MS shown.

🧵2/9 Alabama Moderate 1 in 41 (2.4%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) Arkansas Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) California Very Low 1 in 382 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low* 1 in 230 (0.4%) Connecticut High 1 in 39 (2.6%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 222 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 131 (0.8%) Florida Very Low 1 in 320 (0.3%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 275 (0.4%) Guam Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 670 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Illinois Low 1 in 71 (1.4%) Indiana Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Iowa Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Kansas Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Kentucky Mode...
PMC estimates 1 in 39 are infectious in both Nebraska and Vermont (coincidence, not typo).

Very few NY sites are reporting to the CDC, so use the NYS website there instead.

States MO to WY shown.

🧵3/9 Missouri Low 1 in 80 (1.2%) Montana Very Low 1 in 135 (0.7%) Nebraska High 1 in 39 (2.5%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 225 (0.4%) New Hampshire Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 200 (0.5%) New Mexico Low 1 in 75 (1.3%) New York Moderate* 1 in 49 (2.1%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 226 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 85 (1.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 62 (1.6%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oregon Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 55 (1.8%) Rhode Island Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 215 (0.5%) South Dakota Low 1 in 86 (1.2%) Tennessee Moderate 1 in 60 (1.7%) ...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Dec 8, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
1/9
🔥🔥🔥Very High: Arizona (Yuma)
🔥🔥High: Indiana and Vermont
🔥Moderate: Nebraska and Alabama

Data only go through late November, and levels often increase following Thanksgiving. Heat map and PMC estimates of transmission (1 in 102 actively infectious).
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
2/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Arizona is Very High, but sites were only online in the Yuma area. Indiana remains high.

MI and MS have considerable uncertainty.

DC is exceptionally low. Alabama Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 220 (0.5%) Arizona Very High* 1 in 18 (5.7%) Arkansas Very Low* 1 in 138 (0.7%) California Very Low 1 in 574 (0.2%) Colorado Low 1 in 76 (1.3%) Connecticut Low 1 in 91 (1.1%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 307 (0.3%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 5,777 (0.0%) Florida Very Low 1 in 494 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 180 (0.6%) Guam Very Low 1 in 289 (0.3%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 704 (0.1%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 121 (0.8%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) Indiana High 1 in 30 (3.3%) Iowa Low 1 in 83 (1.2%) Kansas Low 1 in 105 (1.0%) Kentucky Very L...
PMC COVlD Update, Dec 8, 2025 (U.S.)
3/9
State-by-state estimates (part 1). Vermont remains High. Tennessee has fallen rapidly from a quick surge.

Data quality are low in NY. Missouri Very Low 1 in 176 (0.6%) Montana Very Low 1 in 136 (0.7%) Nebraska Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 372 (0.3%) New Hampshire Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 217 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 118 (0.8%) New York Very Low* 1 in 260 (0.4%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 233 (0.4%) North Dakota Low* 1 in 101 (1.0%) Ohio Low 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 68 (1.5%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 150 (0.7%) Pennsylvania Low 1 in 89 (1.1%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 187 (0.5%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 144 (0.7%) South Dakota Low 1 in 82 (1.2%) Tennessee Very Low...
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 23, 2025
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/10

With CDC data operational again, the transmission map is back. The data are always a week old, so transmission is likely worse than depicted.

We estimate 1 in 116 people actively infectious and 422,000 new daily infections. Heat map: Indiana and Arkansas with "moderate" transmission. All others, "low" or "very low" (CDC categories).
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/10

State level estimates are back. Note, the CDC changed their data processing approach in August, which tends to downplay transmission.

Does 1 in 45 in Indiana seem "moderate"?

Levels in MI may be mod/high (poor reporting). Alabama Very Low 1 in 153 (0.7%) Alaska Very Low 1 in 272 (0.4%) Arizona Low 1 in 63 (1.6%) Arkansas Moderate* 1 in 47 (2.1%) California Very Low 1 in 365 (0.3%) Colorado Very Low 1 in 137 (0.7%) Connecticut Low 1 in 103 (1.0%) Delaware Very Low 1 in 262 (0.4%) District of Columbia Very Low 1 in 418 (0.2%) Florida Very Low 1 in 408 (0.2%) Georgia Very Low 1 in 292 (0.3%) Guam Very Low 1 in 887 (0.1%) Hawaii Very Low 1 in 426 (0.2%) Idaho Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Illinois Very Low 1 in 116 (0.9%) Indiana Moderate 1 in 45 (2.2%) Iowa Very Low 1 in 108 (0.9%) Kansas Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Ke...
PMC COVlD Update, Week of Nov 24, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/10

State-level estimates (continued).

Current levels may be much higher than noted here. Note that CDC data are always at least a week old. The 2nd half of November is a time period historically of accelerating transmission. Missouri Very Low 1 in 202 (0.5%) Montana Very Low* 1 in 114 (0.9%) Nebraska Low 1 in 95 (1.1%) Nevada Very Low 1 in 228 (0.4%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 78 (1.3%) New Jersey Very Low 1 in 192 (0.5%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 151 (0.7%) New York Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Carolina Very Low 1 in 212 (0.5%) North Dakota Very Low* 1 in 116 (0.9%) Ohio Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Oklahoma Low* 1 in 70 (1.4%) Oregon Very Low 1 in 194 (0.5%) Pennsylvania Very Low 1 in 111 (0.9%) Rhode Island Very Low 1 in 167 (0.6%) South Carolina Very Low 1 in 112 (0.9%) South Dakota Very Low 1 in 127 (0.8%) Tennes...
Read 10 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Nov 8, 2025
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
1/6🧵

🔹301,000 new daily infections based on wastewater-derived models
🔹1 in 162 people (0.6%) actively infectious
🔹Levels the past 2 months corrected upward by Biobot
🔹"Lull point" estimated between Nov 5-21. Rising soon. Year over year graph, emphasizing that levels commonly rise in mid November
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
2/6🧵

The central estimate of the forecast suggests we will surpass 500,000 new daily infections on Nov 22.

There's a 25% chance of a prolonged lull like last year. More likely, we are in wave territory by the end of the month. Close up of the most recent 3 months of data, including the forecast.
PMC COVID Update, Week of Nov 10, 2025 (U.S.)
3/6🧵

We are presently in a lull between the 11th and 12th wave. Now is the time to get boosted and stock up on N95 masks, tests, and air purifier filters.

Do a DIY fit test if you've been putting it off. Graph of the 11 waves
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

Send Email!

:(