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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Nov 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID-19 Tracker, Nov 27, 2023
❄️ The winter surge is coming! ❄️

Today:
🔹886,000 daily cases
🔹1 in 54 infectious (1.9%)

In 4 weeks (Christmas Day):
🔹1.5 million daily cases
🔹1 in 32 infectious (3.1%)

1/
 CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR December 25, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 1,031 (69% higher) New Daily Cases 1,500,000 % of Population Infectious 3.14% (1 in 32 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 75,000 to 300,000
For Nov 27, what is the COVID risk in the office, a classroom, or at a social gathering?

Bad.

10 people (daycare, team meeting) = 17% chance someone is infectious

30 people (classroom) = 43% chance

50 people (lecture, restaurant) = 61% chance

2/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.9% 2 3.7% 3 5.5% 4 7.2% 5 8.9% 6 10.6% 7 12.3% 8 13.9% 9 15.5% 10 17.1% 15 24.5% 20 31.2% 25 37.4% 30 43.0% 35 48.1% 40 52.7% 50 60.8% 75 75.4% 100 84.6% 150 94.0% 200 97.6% 300 99.6% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
For Dec 25, what's the risk of COVID?

8-10 people (small gathering) = 25% chance someone is infectious

20 people (visiting two families) = 47% chance

100 people (flight, restaurant, etc.) = 96% chance

Limit gatherings, #MaskUp, #VaxUp, Test/Isolate, #CleanTheAir

3/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.1% 2 6.2% 3 9.1% 4 12.0% 5 14.7% 6 17.4% 7 20.0% 8 22.5% 9 24.9% 10 27.3% 15 38.0% 20 47.1% 25 54.9% 30 61.6% 35 67.2% 40 72.1% 50 79.7% 75 90.8% 100 95.9% 150 99.2% 200 99.8% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
Zooming out to the full pandemic shows the harm of the 8th U.S. Covid wave.

🔹More daily infections that 2/3 of the pandemic
🔹25x more actual than reported cases
🔹44,000 #LongCovid cases/day eventually resulting from these infections
🔹Winter peak similar to last year

4/ There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000
Here's the full PMC Dashboard for Nov 27 to Dec 25.

You can read the full report here:

Thank you for your continued questions, suggestions, gratitude, and sharing across other platforms. Please offer any success stories to encourage others.

5/ pmc19.com/data/
There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR Dece...

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jul 2
🌍Want to track COVID transmission accurately worldwide?

This PMC thread walks you through leading dashboards with information more up to date than WHO & EU directories.

🧵 1/ World map, countries with high-quality up-to-date surveillance systems shown in blue.
The Pandemic Mitigation Collaborative (PMC) Dashboard provides weekly COVID updates for the U.S., using wastewater surveillance derived case estimation models and analytic forecasting.

We have added a list of international dashboards:
🧵 2/
pmc19.com/data/index.php…Australia: NSW Health Australia Department of Health, Western Australia Austria: Federal Government of Austria City of Vienna - Regional Coron-A Consortium Austria Czech Republic: State Health Institute Czech Republic Belgium: Belgian Institute for Health Canada: Government of Canada Andrew Young's Canada Visualization C19 Resources Canada * World Health Network (WHN) Canada **
Denmark: Statens Serum Institut Denmark Europe (multi-national): EU Wastewater Observatory Finland: National Institute for Health and Welfare Finland WHN Finland ** France: French Republic Data Airborne Risk Reduction Association (ARRA) France Zan Armstrong's France Visualization COVID Weather App France (Android, IOS, or Web) Thomas Delattre's France Visualization Germany: Infection Radar Germany Bay-VOC Bavaria Region Berlin Waterworks WHN Germany **
Hong Kong: Centre for Health Protection, Hong Kong Hungary: National Center for Public Health and Pharmacy of Hungary India: Pune Knowledge Cluster of India Gujarat Biotechnology Research Centre of India Ireland: Health Protection Surveillance Centre Ireland Japan: Japan Institute for Health Security Latvia: Institute of Food Safety, Animal Health and Environment Latvia Lithuania: National Public Health Centre of Luthuania Luxembourg: Microbs Luxembourg Netherlands: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Netherlands WHN Netherlands ** New Zealand: New Zealand Institute for...
Slovenia: National Institute of Public Health Slovenia Spain: Government of Catalonia - Regional South Africa: National Institute for Communicable Diseases of South Africa South Korea: Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency Sweden: Pathogens Sweden Switzerland: Swiss Confederation Federal Office of Public Health ETH Zurich Switzerland WISE Dashboard U.K.: Public Health Scotland Buckinghamshire Disability Service (BuDS) U.K. *See the numbers 1-21 along the lower left. Click on 3-6 for national and regional data. ** Click on the dropdown menu. May need to try a different web browser.
Our international directory includes official government dashboards & those developed by citizen scientists.

We exclude countries that have stopped reporting in the past 2-12 months even if on EU or WHO lists. We also exclude low-quality data from opt-in testing programs.
🧵 3/
Read 43 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 24
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

🔥Biggest uptick since Jan
🔥1 in 167 actively infectious
🔥>2 million weekly infections
🔥700-1,200 resulting excess deaths from weekly infections

Track transmission closer to home w/our new state & international resources 👇

🧵1/6
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

🔹With >90% probability, we have entered the 11th COVlD wave.
🔹In a room of 50 people, there is already a 1 in 4 chance of an exposure.
🔹We expect nearly 15 million infections in the next month, and rising.

🧵2/6Current Levels for Jun 23, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.6% (1 in 167) New Daily Infections 287000 New Weekly Infections 2009000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 100,000 to 402,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 700 to 1,200 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 1.0% (1 in 97) Average New Daily Infections 493300 New Infections During the Next Month 14799000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 740,000 to 2,960,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 5,300 to 8,800 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 74869000 Average Number of Infect...
PMC COVlD Dashboard, Jun 23, 2025 (U.S.)

We continue to expect transmission to break 500,000 daily infections in the U.S. around July 9th.

This is the same prediction as last week, as the forecast was dead on. Yet, there is considerably uncertainty around this timing.

🧵3/6Longitudinal transmission, past 12 months and 1-month forecast
Read 6 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 17
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Current transmission (red line) closely tracks that of summer 2023 (yellow line).

We expect to break 500k daily infections between July 9 and the end of July. Our current forecast...Year over year graph of tranmission
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Our current forecast is a bit more aggressive, predicting breaking 500k daily infections by July 9. The 2023 trend suggests end of July.

The 95% confidence interval shows large variation. Note that...Past 12 months of transmission (U.S.) and forecast
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 16, 2025 (U.S.)

Note that CDC and Biobot both had retroactive corrections to last week's data, meaning the relative "lull" will last a little longer than the uncorrected data suggested. No big news on NB.1.8.1.

All good news, but...10 pandemic waves. Soon 11
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 16
1) Here's a quick example of how the federal government is censoring the best scientific research. It's not just cuts to ongoing research.

It's new grant submissions too... "No forbidden words found"
2) In January, I re-submitted a promising Covid/cancer grant to a non-federal funder. Hundreds of pages. Hundreds of hours of work. The best proposal I've submitted as a scientist.

Out of curiosity, I used Sean Mullen's Scan Assist tool to see how many banned words it had...
3) The proposal had 1,750 banned words. No big deal -- they're non-federal.

BUT I had planned to submit a smaller version to NIH this month as a "back up." Impossible!

It's not a matter of using a thesaurus or the find/replace command. The grant is on *Covid*... 1,750 banned words found
Read 13 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 9
1) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

CDC wastewater surveillance data show transmission rising. This is our forecast if transmission growth follows typical patterns.

The high & low estimates could be thought of as optimistic & pessimistic scenarios for NB.1.8.1.Forecast graph: Rising transmission the next month
2) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

Notice that current transmission (red line, lower left) tracks closely with two years ago (yellow), slightly below the median (gray), and not far below last year (orange).

Consider each of these trajectories realistic scenarios.Image
3) PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 9, 2025

All indications are that we are headed into the start of an 11th national wave in the U.S.

We could percolate near the lull point another couple weeks (fingers crossed), but that scenario is becoming less likely.Graph of 10 C19 waves
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Jun 3
1/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

National COVlD transmission recently fell to its lowest levels since the pre-Delta era.

It's go-time for many who have delayed medical appointments. The situation will likely get much worse in Jul/Aug.
2/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

An estimated 1 in 211 are actively infectious. Most states are "low" or "very low" per CDC.

The situation remains serious even in a relative "lull." >1.5 million weekly estimated infections to result in 600-900 excess deaths.C19 heat map
year over year graph, tracking closely with the median and past 2 years
Current Levels for Jun 2, 2025 % of the Population Infectious 0.5% (1 in 211) New Daily Infections 227000 New Weekly Infections 1589000 Resulting Weekly Long COVID Cases 79,000 to 318,000 Resulting Weekly Excess Deaths 600 to 900 Monthly Forecast Average % of the Population Infectious 0.7% (1 in 139) Average New Daily Infections 344566.6667 New Infections During the Next Month 10337000 Resulting Monthly Long COVID Cases 517,000 to 2,067,000 Resulting Monthly Excess Deaths 3,700 to 6,200 Running Totals Infections Nationwide in 2025 70132000 Average Number of Infe...
Graph of the whole pandemic, 11th wave forthcoming
3/ PMC COVlD Dashboard, June 2, 2025 (U.S.)

By the end of the month, we forecast an increase to 450k daily infections. If NB.1.8.1 takes off, closer to 600k. If overhyped, percolating only slightly higher.Past 12 months and forecast
Read 5 tweets

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