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Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
@michael_hoerger
Nov 27, 2023 • 5 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
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PMC COVID-19 Tracker, Nov 27, 2023
❄️ The winter surge is coming! ❄️

Today:
🔹886,000 daily cases
🔹1 in 54 infectious (1.9%)

In 4 weeks (Christmas Day):
🔹1.5 million daily cases
🔹1 in 32 infectious (3.1%)

1/
 CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR December 25, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 1,031 (69% higher) New Daily Cases 1,500,000 % of Population Infectious 3.14% (1 in 32 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 75,000 to 300,000
For Nov 27, what is the COVID risk in the office, a classroom, or at a social gathering?

Bad.

10 people (daycare, team meeting) = 17% chance someone is infectious

30 people (classroom) = 43% chance

50 people (lecture, restaurant) = 61% chance

2/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 1.9% 2 3.7% 3 5.5% 4 7.2% 5 8.9% 6 10.6% 7 12.3% 8 13.9% 9 15.5% 10 17.1% 15 24.5% 20 31.2% 25 37.4% 30 43.0% 35 48.1% 40 52.7% 50 60.8% 75 75.4% 100 84.6% 150 94.0% 200 97.6% 300 99.6% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
For Dec 25, what's the risk of COVID?

8-10 people (small gathering) = 25% chance someone is infectious

20 people (visiting two families) = 47% chance

100 people (flight, restaurant, etc.) = 96% chance

Limit gatherings, #MaskUp, #VaxUp, Test/Isolate, #CleanTheAir

3/ Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 3.1% 2 6.2% 3 9.1% 4 12.0% 5 14.7% 6 17.4% 7 20.0% 8 22.5% 9 24.9% 10 27.3% 15 38.0% 20 47.1% 25 54.9% 30 61.6% 35 67.2% 40 72.1% 50 79.7% 75 90.8% 100 95.9% 150 99.2% 200 99.8% 300 >99.9% 400 >99.9% 500 >99.9%
Zooming out to the full pandemic shows the harm of the 8th U.S. Covid wave.

🔹More daily infections that 2/3 of the pandemic
🔹25x more actual than reported cases
🔹44,000 #LongCovid cases/day eventually resulting from these infections
🔹Winter peak similar to last year

4/ There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000
Here's the full PMC Dashboard for Nov 27 to Dec 25.

You can read the full report here:

Thank you for your continued questions, suggestions, gratitude, and sharing across other platforms. Please offer any success stories to encourage others.

5/ pmc19.com/data/
There is more COVID-19 transmission today than during 67.6% of the pandemic. CURRENT ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 Wastewater Levels (copies/mL) 609 New Daily Cases 886,000 % of Population Infectious 1.85% (1 in 54 people) New Daily Long COVID Cases 44,000 to 177,000 WEEKLY ESTIMATES FOR November 27, 2023 New Weekly Cases 6,200,000 New Weekly Long COVID Cases 310,000 to 1,240,000 2023 CUMULATIVE ESTIMATES AS OF November 27, 2023 Total 2023 Cases To Date 205,542,980 Total 2023 Long COVID Cases To Date 10,277,000 to 41,109,000 4-WEEK FORECAST FOR Dece...

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More from @michael_hoerger

Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 16
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵1/7

COVlD-19 levels are "Very High" or "High" in the majority of states, per the CDC.

This includes 27 states & D.C.

🔥🔥Very High:
Alaska, Hawai'i, California, Nevada, Idaho, Utah, S. Dakota, Nebraska, Texas, Louisiana, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, S. Carolina, N. Carolina, D.C., Maryland, and Connecticut.

🔥High:
Washington state, Oregon, Montana, probably N. Dakota (imputed), Arkansas, Alabama, Virginia, Delaware, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

PMC estimates 1 in 38 people (2.7%) are actively infectious. Wastewater-derived case estimates suggest 1.3 million new daily infections.Heat map using CDC levels. Key findings summarized in the post.
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵2/7

Transmission is peaking nationally, but regional variation is common. Know what's happening in your state, and get the word out.

Note that the levels CDC calls "low" are still quite alarming.State | CDC Level | PMC Estimate, % Actively Infectious Alabama High 1 in 30 (3.4%) Alaska Very High 1 in 22 (4.6%) Arizona Moderate 1 in 40 (2.5%) Arkansas High 1 in 28 (3.6%) California Very High 1 in 21 (4.8%) Colorado Moderate 1 in 50 (2.0%) Connecticut Very High 1 in 19 (5.3%) Delaware High 1 in 33 (3.0%) District of Columbia Very High 1 in 17 (6.0%) Florida Very High 1 in 24 (4.2%) Georgia Moderate 1 in 46 (2.2%) Guam Low 1 in 64 (1.6%) Hawaii Very High 1 in 26 (3.8%) Idaho Very High 1 in 14 (7.3%) Illinois Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Indiana Very High 1 in 16 (6.1%) Iowa Moderate 1 in 40...
PMC COVlD Report, Sep 15, 2025 (U.S.)
🧵3/7

Note that transmission is increasingly spreading from the South & West toward other areas. Know your state-level risk.

Transmission remains alarming even in areas CDC labels "Very Low" (e.g., Missouri, estimated 1 in 109). State | CDC Level | PMC Estimate, % Actively Infectious Missouri Very Low 1 in 109 (0.9%) Montana High 1 in 36 (2.8%) Nebraska Very High 1 in 18 (5.5%) Nevada Very High 1 in 17 (5.9%) New Hampshire Low 1 in 64 (1.6%) New Jersey Moderate 1 in 56 (1.8%) New Mexico Very Low 1 in 106 (0.9%) New York Low 1 in 73 (1.4%) North Carolina Very High 1 in 17 (5.8%) North Dakota High* 1 in 32 (3.2%) Ohio Moderate 1 in 47 (2.1%) Oklahoma Moderate* 1 in 44 (2.3%) Oregon High 1 in 31 (3.2%) Pennsylvania Moderate 1 in 44 (2.3%) Rhode Island High 1 in 30 (3.3%) South Carolina Very High 1 in 15 (6.6%) South D...
Read 7 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 13
California COVlD Surge Rages Higher

🔸CDC SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels "Very High," and up from last week
🔸1 in 21 estimated actively infectious
🔸>250,000 estimated new daily infections statewide

Four figures...
1/4🧵 CDC: Very High: PMC Estimate: 1 in 21 actively infectious
CDC wastewater data in California show COVlD cases increasing from the already "Very High" levels last week.

2/4🧵 Line graph of the past 6 months showing the surge in wastewater viral levels
With an estimated 1 in 21 (or 4.8%) of California residents actively infectious of COVlD, risk increases dramatically in larger and more frequent social gatherings.

Interact with 25 people of average risk of being positive, and that's a >70% chance of exposure.
3/4🧵 How Does Risk Increase with More Social Contacts? Number of People | Chances Anyone is Infectious 1 4.8% 2 9.4% 3 13.7% 4 17.9% 5 21.8% 6 25.6% 7 29.1% 8 32.5% 9 35.8% 10 38.9% 15 52.2% 20 62.6% 25 70.8% 30 77.1% 35 82.1% 40 86.0% 50 91.5% 75 97.5% 100 99.3% 300 99.9%
Read 4 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 10
Let's say you're a dairy farmer. You have 100 cows. Each year, about 5 cows die, and another 5 cows are born. Then, along comes a virus. Let's call it "cowvid"...
1/
Let's say "cowvid" wipes out about half the cows over the course of a couple years. Now, you're down to 50 cows....
2/
The local mayor declares "cowvid" to be over. This surprises you as a farmer because 5 of your cows keep dying annually. 5 of 50 instead of 5 out of 100. Seems like more, but you're not a city slicker...
3/
Read 12 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 7
#DuringCOVID is today.

Image pack 1 of 9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic in the U.S., tailored to a key message noted in the post.
1 million New Daily Infections.

Today!

Image pack 2 of 9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic in the U.S., tailored to a key message noted in the post.
Where are the free vaccines, N95s, and tests?

Image pack 3 of 9 🧵 Graph of the 11 waves of the pandemic in the U.S., tailored to a key message noted in the post.
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Sep 3
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵1 of 8

The 11th wave is still rising.
🔥23 states/territories High/Very High
🔥Very High: Alabama, DC, Guam, Hawai'i, Louisiana, Nebraska, Nevada, South Carolina, Texas, Utah
🔥1 in 56 estimated actively infectious
🔥876,000 new daily infections CDC heat map, very high states noted in post. PMC estimate of 1 in 56 actively infectious nationwide
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵2 of 8

Note that the CDC has modified 📉 how transmission levels correspond to the categorical bins.

Take California. We estimate 1 in 30 actively infectious statewide. This would have previously been "Very High," now just "High."
#NewNormal CDC heatmap, with PMC estimate of 1 in 30
PMC Dashboard Update (U.S.) 🧵3 of 8

Here are the prevalence estimates for the first half of states/territories.

Notice how high the levels are in some of the "Moderate" states. State CDC Level Alabama Very High Alaska High Arizona High Arkansas Moderate California High Colorado Moderate Connecticut High Delaware High District of Columbia Very High Florida High Georgia Moderate Guam Very High Hawaii Very High Idaho High Illinois Very Low Indiana Moderate* Iowa Low Kansas Low Kentucky High Louisiana Very High Maine Low Maryland Moderate Massachusetts Moderate Michigan Very Low Minnesota Moderate Mississippi High*
Read 9 tweets
Mike Hoerger, PhD MSCR MBA Profile picture
Aug 21
During times like these when COVlD transmission heats up in the U.S., expect to see a lot more angry outbursts for three central reasons.

First, "displacement," or people trying to deny the reality of their anxiety by taking it out on other people....
Second, a lot of people can sustain a strong denial of reality about the ongoing pandemic during lulls. They suppress the existence of COVlD waves and excess deaths, disability, and retirements.

During waves, those defenses burst. Loss of control = anger...
Third, a lot of people (many reading this) understand COVlD correctly & experience righteous indignation during COVlD waves. We quite reasonably do not like all of the unjust and gratuitous suffering.

I find it helpful to channel that intensity into helping other people....
Read 6 tweets

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