1. If a market has you frozen out. It's unrelenting in it's uptrend. You simply cannot find a spot to be a buyer.
Just buy it.
Natural law states that once you finally buy, the market will top and a correction will begin.
That last sentence will feel familiar, but there's truth hidden within the meme.
Very often it's our constant checking of price and way it infiltrates every waking thought that perpetuates this desire to make sure we own whatever the coin is.
So you have to buy some.
I'm not advocating that you go in with 100% of your size, it has to be very small.
What buying does is it usually relaxes you a little. It gives you skin in the game and it usually provides some breathing room because at least if price continues higher now you have a slice of that action.
What it will then do is establish the base of your position, which is important for the discussions we're about to have.
2. Being a small buyer of a market during consolidations and corrections will give you control over your positioning.
We still think about these positions as having a point of invalidation, but we're now talking very small slices of the market when it provides us with an opportunity to do so.
When markets are ranging/consolidating/chopping it's often the best opportunity to employ this tactic.
3. Smaller sizes to build a longer term position is always going to be advantageous. It will keep us in "attack mode" - it will ensure that we remain hungry for dips and we action dips in the right way (by buying them.)
When our position sizes are too large we instead get defensive and begin to close out or add shit like a trailing stop to our positions.
Small size on regular intervals when the conditions allow to build your position up piece by piece over time.
4. There will be times it feels as though the market is getting away from you. EG. You only filled for 50% and now we're rallying higher. That's fine. You have 50%. If you now begin to action on FOMO and size up dramatically you're going to offset your average entry greatly and get yourself back into defensive mode if the market turns around again.
5. TA kind of goes out of the window. We know that bullish markets can produce -30% moves to the downside. When we get situations like this it's a very good opportunity to look at being a buyer.
This can come in one blast of volatility, or this can be a market correcting over a number of days.
Regardless, they are usually opportunities, and if we think about our scaling we can be more aggressive at this points as they should offer us extreme value and be closer to any invalidation points that we may have.
6. Don't sit with your thumb up your ass if price trades 1% away from your limit buys before turning around. You have to wake up and take action.
Are you going to sit there when you're looking at a +30% upside trade and be like "it didn't fill my bids by $1 OMG!!!!!!111!1"
Look at what you're trying to achieve with your trade and if your perfect little horizontal line wasn't touched, who gives a shit, start being proactive and doing something to get exposure to your trade.
Summary:
Small position sizing
Be comfortable not being "fully sized"
Stay in attack mode
Don't make panicked decisions that will offset days of hardwork crafting a position, stop and think
-30% sell offs usually provide amazing opportunities to size up or start a position
Be active and adapt to the market
Be aware of what the targets and plans are for your position
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Crypto stocks are my primary exposure vehicle this bull run.
I've been building positions for months (owned $MSTR since October 2023 - choosing it over $BTC exposure) and ramped up buying significantly before the election.
I am already in a disgusting amount of profit, but it's going to get much crazier.
There are a huge amount of reasons why, especially in this environment I think crypto stocks outperform the majority of crypto coins.
I'll present:
- Overall comparisons against coins
- Outperformance of crypto stocks
- Reasons why
- Environmental shift
- Technical Analysis
First up comparisons.
Before you think this is some recent obsession, I've been advocating for this for a very long time, all the way back in September 2023 when I took exposure in $MSTR instead of $BTC.
One of my strongest held beliefs is that the continued dilution of memecoins is one of the best bullish catalysts for $DOGE.
>DOGE is a memecoin, I buy
>Oh these new meme coins outperform DOGE
>Wow there's now millions of memecoins on millions of chains
>I will just buy DOGE
What's happened over time is that we've diluted to a huge degree.
Initially you had:
DOGE
If you wanted a lotto ticket, "DOGE to $1!" that was your play.
With the rise of $PEPE and others there was a decision to make. Now of course on-chain was still continuing throughout this time but it was a little more niche.
$PEPE caught the attention of the masses and you'll remember many said "why ever take exposure to DOGE anymore"
In trading, for the majority, the more information you look to gather, the more indicator usage you rely on, the more data points you consider, puts you further from the intellectual path you believe you're following and deeper into the middle of the curve.
Simplicity.
Knowledge is sometimes a curse.
The more we know in trading actually causes our decision making to become less clear.
Analysis-paralysis takes hold.
We feel as though we SHOULD look for more supporting info, we dive into data we have no idea about but it makes us sound more informed.
Let's take a little dive into the $ETH price action and determine whether or not we're at a psychological extreme that means we should be long, or if the market truly is the loser we all think it is.
🧵
At time of writing, ETH sits +62% up in 2023.
For comparison:
SOL +480%
BTC +121%
MSTR +242%
AVAX +90%
NVDA +250%
It's been an incredibly poor performer and would be more suited to the bottom of a list of investable markets right now.
But there have been glimmers of hope for $ETH. We've seen a couple of flashes where ETHBTC doesn't continue it's death-spiral and instead offers some hope for what might be a turnaround point.
However, and unfortunately, each of these times has proven to be a local top.
In every uptrend there is that sell off that catches people out.
Conditioned into buying dips (as they should), people bid too early and haven't spotted the signals from HTFs that this is one they should sit out.
IMO that's where we are, I think this one is deeper. 🧵
So what does that mean?
I think the HTF is more "ready" for a correction than at any other point we've seen so far, I think that the signs of weakness are there after a huge run.
Big HTF divergences without a playout, I want to see those resolved.
I still want to bid, but I need to think about spreading those bids around a little bit more and not jumping in at the first sign of a sell off which has worked so well previously.
This time is a little different in that regard for me.
One of the most dangerous trading mindsets to fall into is:
"I believe [insert price move here] is going to happen soon."
The psychological impact is very strong.
I'll dive a little deeper into TUNNEL VISION TRADING.
🧵🧵
We've all had it before.
"Oh I think a big move is incoming"
"Oh this resistance looks like it's going to break soon"
"Damn the volatility has really slowed down, huge move coming"
"We're going to breakdown really soon here, looks so weak"
"Yeah, this is really close now"
What we begin to do is drive up anticipation of an event, a move, a sign of strength or weakness in the market.
This increase of anticipation does a couple of things to our trading, via our approach and from how we begin to allow our subconscious to drive our actions.