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Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
@grayzoneintel
Nov 28, 2023 • 2 tweets • 1 min read • Read on X
i spent most of the day scraping u.s. military sites and databases for thesis papers regarding "domestic insurgency" from the army war college, cgsc, navy post-grad school, and other military schools.

the thesis papers from these schools are public record and searchable online.

i should not be, but i am astounded by how many field grade officers chose some variation of a "right wing insurgency" or "white Christian majority losing power" and the military implications thereof as a central part of their warfighting thesis.

would it be wrong to conclude that this is what today's senior field grade and flag officers are thinking?

and would anyone be willing to volunteer their time to find out what these officers are doing now, i.e., commanding divisions, working at think tanks, etc.?
If you like this tweet, you'll love my posts on the history and future of domestic conflict and empire collapse.

See what's on my radar here: forwardobserver.com/radar/

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More from @grayzoneintel

Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
Apr 28
This Thursday is May Day -- aka International Workers Day -- and historically a day of left wing protests and riots.

We're probably about to see Antifa re-emerge after years of mostly *crickets*.

Here's what I think is about to go down... 🧵🔽 Image
1. Far Left groups like Antifa need a base of support to sustain direct action campaigns.

Post-2021, that base of support evaporated, which is one of the biggest reasons why Far Left street action did, too. Image
2. Far Left demonstrations since 2021 have also been limited by other factors:

- A lack of right wing street groups (Proud Boys, etc.)
- Politicians stopped giving "room to riot"
- Militants are being criminally charged now
- Little/no patience from law enforcement
Read 15 tweets
Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
Apr 14
In his latest note to clients, legendary hedge fund manager Howard Marks gave some incredible advice on how to prepare for the end of the world.

Don't.

Here's exactly what he wrote: 🧵🔽
-" we can't confidently predict the end of the world,

- we'd have no idea what to do if we knew the world would end,

- the things we'd do to gird for the end of the world would be disastrous if it didn't end, and

- most of the time the world doesn't end." /2
Marks goes on to explain that predictions and forecasts aren't good enough because they are often incorrect.

"In addition to a forecast, you also need a good sense for the probability your forecast is correct, since not all forecasts are created equal." /3
Read 13 tweets
Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
Apr 8
If you didn't hear about last weekend's protests, it's not your fault.

Turnout was 95% lower than the stated goal.

So is the Trump Resistance 2.0 still on the road to revolution? In short, yes, but that road is still under construction.

Here's what I'm seeing:
🧵👇 Image
1. Organizers reported a national turnout of 3-5 million protestors on Saturday.

And out of the 1 million they wanted in D.C., fewer than 50k showed up. That's about 95% short of what they wanted.

So what do they need to launch a 2020-style popular revolution?
2. Organizers state they need 3.5% of the country (~12MM) engaged in "sustained resistance" to achieve a political turning point.

In context, the Left turned out about 1% of the country just to protest, but they need 3.5% to go one step further and engage in actual resistance.
Read 9 tweets
Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
Feb 19
Democrats are stuck.

They have about 18 months to solve a complex problem, and they face an implosion by 2028 if they don't reconcile their fractured base.

Here's why:
1. Do you remember all the "wilderness" talk when Hillary lost in 2016?

Democrats "entered the wilderness" to "soul search" and "discover themselves" and then they decided to nominate a senile old man for president who barely and illegally won the 2020 election,

and also push far left social policies so unpopular with the American People that a Republican won the popular vote for the first time in 20 years in 2024.Image
2. The GOP had a similar fractured party problem in 2016 and 2020.

Republican voters solved this problem by thrice nominating Trump and excising Never Trumpers from the party.

Their departure actually strengthened Trump! Image
Read 10 tweets
Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
Jan 30
On the night of July 14, 1789, King Louis XVI received word that a mob in Paris had seized the Bastille.

Unfazed, he went to bed early despite the pleas of his advisor to take it seriously.

"Is this just a rebellion?" the King asked.

"No, sire. This is a revolution."

A short 🧵on why you should care.Image
2. After yesterday's thread on intra-elite conflict and where it leads -- state breakdown and civil war -- I read the tired, predictable responses downplaying the risk of a domestic conflict.

Here's what these people don't understand... Image
3. This is key to understanding the future:

As has been said, the right views violence as a switch. It's either on or off.

But the left views violence as a dial that can be turned up and down. It's currently turned down, but it won't be forever. Image
Read 8 tweets
Mike Shelby | Gray Zone Research Profile picture
Jan 29
HOW CIVIL WARS START: Here's the background on what's happening in the Trump administration right now.

This is the biggest development since the 2020 coup.

🧵Image
2. Yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) directed federal agencies to pause all federal grants and loans, and conduct a comprehensive review of all federal financial assistance programs.

This isn't just budget cuts. It's a war over institutional control.
3. Michael Anton, a former deputy national security advisor, has rejoined the Trump administration.

In his 2020 book, The Stakes, Anton describes how left wing elites use federal power and taxpayer dollars to entrench and perpetuate their political dominance.Image
Read 18 tweets

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