i spent most of the day scraping u.s. military sites and databases for thesis papers regarding "domestic insurgency" from the army war college, cgsc, navy post-grad school, and other military schools.
the thesis papers from these schools are public record and searchable online.
i should not be, but i am astounded by how many field grade officers chose some variation of a "right wing insurgency" or "white Christian majority losing power" and the military implications thereof as a central part of their warfighting thesis.
would it be wrong to conclude that this is what today's senior field grade and flag officers are thinking?
and would anyone be willing to volunteer their time to find out what these officers are doing now, i.e., commanding divisions, working at think tanks, etc.?
If you like this tweet, you'll love my posts on the history and future of domestic conflict and empire collapse.
i'm finally digging into this DoD Directive 5240.01, which is an update from 2007.
and, uh, this actually goes way deeper than anyone else is covering.
i'll give you part of the cliff's notes:
this directive expressly permits defense intelligence components to conduct covert activities inside the united states -- under title 50 authorization -- if approved by president biden.
Start your day with the best intel brief available without a security clearance.
Can you imagine a foreign-backed ethno-nationalist group attempting to establish a separatist homeland in the Southern U.S.?
And NOT hearing about it in the media?
Well, do I have a story for you.
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Officials from the U.S.-based Provisional Government of the Republic of New Afrika (PG-RNA) are seeking diplomatic recognition with Burkina Faso, a junta-run West African country.
The Republic of New Afrika is a Marxist, black nationalist organization that seeks a homeland for blacks across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. The PG-RNA is its temporary government founded in 1968.
I ask earnestly because we know the early warning indicators.
State breakdown is when a government loses the capacity, authority, and/or legitimacy to govern, typically due to an internal crisis (or many crises).
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There's one major early warning indicator and, of all places, Politico inadvertently identified it this morning in an article about Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH). /2
But first, some background...
The strongest early warning indicator of state breakdown is factionalism among elites.
You tend to get armed conflicts like revolution (state breakdown) when the elite class fractures into elites and counter-elites.
During the Algerian insurgency and war for independence, the communist FLN set up social groups across the country -- everything from soccer clubs and youth groups to women's committees, farmers organizations, workers' councils, etc. /1
FLN cadres recruited leaders for the groups who were responsible for instilling pro-socialist and pro-independence ideology (and most importantly, anti-french sentiments).
in addition to creating social power, the FLN used these groups as intelligence collectors who would pass on information about french military movements and civil activities, as well as french sympathizers. /2
further, the FLN intended for these groups to replace the family.
in 1954, french ground commander marchand wrote:
"These [communist] organizations constitute the new basic cells instead of the family, and family devotion has been replaced by duty towards the Party." /3