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As negotiations on extending the Israel-Hamas pause begin in Doha, some preliminary observations:
1. Hamas remains in control in Gaza capable of enforcing the ceasefire on all the other terrorist groups, including PIJ.
1. Hamas remains in control in Gaza capable of enforcing the ceasefire on all the other terrorist groups, including PIJ.
2. That casts doubt on its claims that it can’t get its hands on all the hostages.
3. PIJ’s submission to Hamas’s command is an indication that Iran supports the ceasefire. Note that all of Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, have ceased firing despite…
3. PIJ’s submission to Hamas’s command is an indication that Iran supports the ceasefire. Note that all of Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, have ceased firing despite…
…not being included in the agreement. (The Houthis were late in getting the memo.) This fits with Nasrallah’s advice to Hamas at the outset of the war to go for a ceasefire.
4. Hamas gains by holding the IDF at bay but also from the release of Palestinian prisoners to the West Bank where its popularity is soaring at Abu Mazen’s expense.
5. If this is all true then Hamas will be more than willing to pay with more hostages to hold off Israel’s resumption of hostilities.
6. Netanyahu can see that Hamas prefers not to return to war
but the public insistence on prioritizing return of hostages ties his hands. And pressure from Biden to extend the pause makes it doubly difficult for him to resume the battle.
but the public insistence on prioritizing return of hostages ties his hands. And pressure from Biden to extend the pause makes it doubly difficult for him to resume the battle.
7. How far both sides will be prepared to go in trading hostages and prisoners for the pause is about to be tested but the pressures and incentives for both to stick with it are at the moment stronger than the incentives to go back to war.
8. The time could be ripe for a larger swap deal.
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