Last night Israeli defense minister Gallant laid out to the security cabinet the IDF’s plan for the “day after” in Gaza. It has four components: Israeli responsibility for overall security (including freedom to operate in Gaza); cooperation with Egypt to control and seal the Egypt/Gaza border; a U.S.-led international force to maintain order; and a civilian administrative structure based on local employees. Notably, Gallant declared there will be no Israeli civilian presence in Gaza. 🧵My take on Gallant’s concept (spoiler alert - bold prediction in 6/6): 1/6 Gallant’s plan is not yet fully articulated or embraced by Netanyahu, let alone his cabinet. But it is most likely to prevail because it represents the IDF’s needs.

There @netanyahu goes again: last night he reiterated his position that he would not allow the PA to govern the Gaza Strip after the war. “I will not allow the State of Israel to repeat the critical mistake of Oslo, which brought to the heart of our land—and to Gaza—the most extreme elements in the entire Arab world, who are committed to the destruction of the State of Israel and who teach that goal to their children.” Asked why he never annulled the Oslo accords during all the years he was in power. Netanyahu answered, “I destroyed the Oslo agreements. I thought they were a terrible mistake and I still think that. When I was elected prime minister, I said I would establish the principle of reciprocity: If they give, they’ll get. If they don’t give, they won’t get. I am proud of the fact that I prevented the emergence of a Palestinian state.”

As negotiations on extending the Israel-Hamas pause begin in Doha, some preliminary observations:
1. Hamas remains in control in Gaza capable of enforcing the ceasefire on all the other terrorist groups, including PIJ. 2. That casts doubt on its claims that it can’t get its hands on all the hostages.
3. PIJ’s submission to Hamas’s command is an indication that Iran supports the ceasefire. Note that all of Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, have ceased firing despite…

🧵While the hostage families wait anxiously, Bibi resorts to his standard playbook:
1. Drag out the cabinet deliberations to show how difficult it is to get his ministers to agree even though he already has a majority… 2. In the meantime leak from the Cabinet room that the Red Cross will have access to the remaining hostages so he can claim an additional achievement (which it is).

3. Claim that he hung tough to get a better deal at a lower price.

You are right about the historical reference for Kissinger’s remarks being the 1973 Yom Kippur War @DrRadchenko. And your recounting of what happened there is astute. However, as I detail in Master of the Game, Kissinger tried a ceasefire based on a return to the status quo ante

https://twitter.com/drradchenko/status/1529130327691743233

in the early days of the war and failed. Then, after Nixon ordered a massive resupply of arms to Israel (a close analog to the US supply of arms to Ukraine) that helped Israel launch successful counter-offensives (sound familiar?), Kissinger offered the Arabs a new ceasefire

Have now had a chance to watch part 3 of Bandar's harsh censure of the Palestinian leadership. From my own experience I can attest to the accuracy of his account of Arafat's failure to accept the Clinton Parameters in December 2000. Note Bandar confirms that: 1. Barak accepted...

https://twitter.com/AlArabiya_Eng/status/1313905420491206662

...the Clinton Parameters. 2. Arafat lied when he told the Saudi and Egyptian ambassadors that he had accepted them. 3. Rather than pressing Arafat to accept, Bandar ran away. Years later King Abdullah told President Clinton that it was his greatest regret that he did not press..

Three cheers for @MohamedBinZayed and his ambo in Washington Yousef al-Otaiba for a courageous and creative move to normalize relations with Israel, take its annexation of Palestinian land off the table and strike a blow to Israel’s right wing annexationist bloc. @netanyahu may claim he’s still committed to annexation but in practice he has no way to do it now without sacrificing Israel’s relations with the UAE. Trump too cannot legitimize annexation after brokering this deal.

My take on the Gaza-Israel crisis:
1. Abu al-Ata (the PIJ leader killed by Israel) earned his fate honestly. He was a rogue actor encouraged by Iran to launch rocket attacks on Israel to make it difficult for Hamas to consolidate its truce with Israel. 2. Israel is trying to keep Hamas out of the fight by restricting its retaliatory attacks to PIJ targets only and keeping casualties low. (That is the opposite of its usual strategy of attacking Hamas targets to press it to take responsibility for PIJ actions.)

For those asking why the US gives Israel $3.8 bn a year in military assistance:
1. Israel is a democratic ally that lives in a very dangerous neighborhood.
2. The US has a longstanding commitment to maintain Israel’s qualitative military edge. /..2 3. By doing so, US enables Israel to defend itself by itself.
4. US benefits from having a strong, reliable ally in a volatile and unstable region.
5. US also benefits from strategic partnership on intelligence and high-tech.