Latest #Iran Update covering the #IsraelHamasWar w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/IranUpdate1128…

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Key Takeaways 🧵

1/ #Hamas’ governance capacity appears to be breaking down in the #Gaza Strip, even in the southern part, which will complexify Israeli clearing operations.
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2/ #Israel and Hamas both reported at least one violation of the temporary truce agreement in the #Gaza Strip, but neither side escalated the situation to more general fighting across the strip.
3/ Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and Israel completed the fifth swap of hostages in the Gaza Strip for Israeli-held Palestinian prisoners in accordance with their humanitarian pause agreement.
4/ @WSJ reported that Egypt and Qatar are trying to negotiate a “long-term ceasefire” in the Gaza Strip.
5/ #Hamas fighters clashed with Israeli forces in Tubas and assisted a Hamas member to evade Israeli arrest. Clashes continued between Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters in at least three other locations in the #WestBank. Image
6/ Lebanese #Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed militias did not conduct any attacks into northern Israel.
7/ Iranian-backed Iraqi militia Ashab al Kahf implicitly threatened to conduct further drone and rocket attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East in the coming months.

Russo-Iranian military cooperation has continued to deepen, especially in recent weeks. Image

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More from @TheStudyofWar

Nov 30
Southern #Ukraine

1/ Ukrainian forces continued ground attacks in the east (left) bank of #Kherson Obl. on Nov. 29 & reportedly advanced. Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces advanced SW of Krynky & established a foothold in a nearby forest area. isw.pub/UkrWar112923


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2/ Russian milbloggers claimed that battles are ongoing near #Krynky and that Russian aviation and artillery units are heavily striking the area.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces maintain positions on the east bank of the #Dnipro River.
3/ Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to transfer new assault groups to the left bank and that 300 to 400 Ukrainian personnel are operating near #Krynky.
Read 5 tweets
Nov 30
#Russian Off. Campaign Assessment, Nov. 29, 2023: The apparent Russian failure to establish a cohesive cmd. structure among forces defending on the east (left) bank of #Kherson Oblast continues to degrade Russian morale & combat capabilities. 1/6

Full: isw.pub/UkrWar112923
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The #Russian “Dnepr” Grouping of Forces is increasingly comprised of disparate elements of recently transferred and degraded units and new formations, which may be contributing to this apparent lack of cohesive command structure. 2/6
The #Russian ”Dnepr” Grouping of Forces appears to be comprised of elements of the Black Sea Fleet, the Caspian Flotilla, the Southern Military District, the Central Military District, the Northern Fleet, and the Russian Airborne (VDV) forces. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
Nov 29
The restrictions of the proposed migration status likely aim to further alienate large numbers of migrants from economic and social life in #Russia and make military service one of the few avenues for remaining in the country. 🧵(1/10)
isw.pub/UkrWar112823

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2/ #Kremlin news wire TASS reported on November 28 that the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) drafted a proposed bill that would create a “controlled stay” regime in #Russia for migrants who do not have legal grounds for staying in the country...
3/ ...including those with expired or nullified migration documents and those who have illegally entered #Russia.

The bill will reportedly propose the following restrictions on migrants in Russia on the controlled stay regime:
Read 10 tweets
Nov 29
Key Takeaways🧵

1/ Head of the #Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill of #Moscow stated that Russia needs to “significantly adjust” its migration policies for the “preservation of Russian culture,” highlighting the perceived superiority of ethnic Russians.
2/ Russian officials appear to be attempting to further disenfranchise migrants living in #Russia, likely to support ongoing efforts to coerce migrants into military service while also appeasing increasingly xenophobic Russian ultranationalists. isw.pub/UkrWar112823
3/ The #Kremlin continues to focus heavily on setting informational conditions for the upcoming 2024 Russian presidential elections and will likely formally commence Putin’s “campaign” on December 14.
Read 11 tweets
Nov 28
Key Takeaways 🧵
1/ Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and several Russian milbloggers stated that #Russia must maintain active operations in #Ukraine and expressed worry over the prospect of further Western military support to Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar112723

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2/ Some milbloggers additionally expressed increased discontent with the perceived lack of articulated Russian war aims and stated #Russia must clarify its war aims before discussing any pause or end to the war.
3/ Ukrainian National Defense and Security Council Secretary Oleksiy Danilov stated that the #Kremlin has activated a network of sleeper agents in Ukraine in the past few months to destabilize Ukrainian society.
Read 8 tweets
Nov 27
Key Takeaways: ⬇️

#Israel said that #Hamas established a checkpoint on the Salah al Din road to prevent aid from reaching northern #Gaza Strip residents. 1/8 🧵 isw.pub/IranUpdate1126…

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#Israeli forces arrested 21 individuals in several raids across the #WestBank. #Palestinian militia fighters clashed with Israeli forces for nine hours in the #Jenin refugee camp. 2/8 Image
Lebanese #Hezbollah & other #Iranian-backed militias did not conduct any attacks into northern #Israel.

Israeli aircraft conducted an airstrike on #Damascus International Airport & possibly a 2nd airstrike on Mezzeh Military Airport near Damascus, damaging both facilities. 3/8
Read 8 tweets

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