1/7 🧵A thread about how #Russia is losing Transnistria🇲🇩.
With the beginning of Russia's military invasion of #Ukraine, Moscow deprived itself of the opportunity to participate in the negotiation process👇
2/7 From the "5+2" format (#Russia, OSCE, Ukraine, EU, #USA -- Tiraspol and Chisinau), the negotiations turned into 1+1 (Chisinau + Tiraspol).
3/7 At the same time, the role and authority of the #EU US and #Romania in this process should increase, taking into account #Moldova's closer relations with the 🇪🇺Union.
4/7 The #EU already has a significant part in the Transnistrian region's exports - 32% of goods from Tiraspol in 2023 went to 🇪🇺 countries. And for the first time since the creation of the "Transnistrian Republic," exports to #Moldova exceeded 50% (from totl exports) > $300 mln.
5/7 Tiraspol has joined the export of 🇺🇦 grain.
If at the beginning of the Russian invasion Transnistria was looked at as a 100% threat, now Kyiv has risked to let (transit) its trains with grain through the territory not controlled by 🇲🇩 authorities.
6/7 For the first time, Chisinau will establish a joint customs point with Kyiv on the Transnistrian section of the border with #Ukraine.
7/7 And finally, with the termination of #Russian gas transit through #Ukraine (at the end of 2024), thanks to which Transnistria continues to exist, Chisinau and Tiraspol will have to think together how to provide the left bank with energy resources.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
🧵In three months, hundreds of young people from #Moldova have been taken to 🇷🇺 by an organization affiliated with the Kremlin and fugitive oligarch Shor. @Soshnikoff sneak into the internal chat & we reveal how youth are lured and "educated" to promote the Euro-Asian vector.
Afanasii, the chat administrator, gave assurances that it is enough to go to Moscow and "actively participate" in the program activities. "There are no other conditions," he said.
Participants were accommodated in a four-star hotel in the north of Moscow, "Alliance Borodino". The next day, they were taken on a trip to the "Skolkovo Tehnopark", where #Russia'n government-affiliated IT companies are located.
🧵I suggest that we all take a brief look back at what has happened in the #Transnistria case in the last couple of days:
1/6 Last week, the regional leader announced the Congress of all deputies of the unrecognized region. Context: Chisinau 🇲🇩 imposed customs duties, Tiraspol expressed dissatisfaction, protested, imposed retaliatory duties.
2/6 A so-called oppositionist from Transnistria launches a speculation that deputies will ask #Russia to annex the unrecognised region.
🧵 Let me explain to you why "Putin will annex #Transnistria" is one of the elements of hybrid warfare, and annexation is unlikely to happen. First of all, because ALL (!) the news that are based on the opinion of some opposition politician. Opinion. That's all.
2/10 As long as I have been following this region, there has been a huge amount of fakes and misinformation, manipulations. And all of them appeared at moments when Tiraspol needs to attract attention in order to gain some kind of financial advantages or 🇷🇺 wants to spread panic.
3/10 We should not forget that first of all this region is run by an oligarch who is not too eager for the Russian world to get to them. Why are the political and business elites still not talking about what is happening in #Ukraine?
🧵in which I' ll try to explain why #Transnistria exports less and less to #Russia, and why Chisinau is now the main pillar in the region's economy, which only relies on Russian gas supplies (and not for long).
👇 1/8 moldova.europalibera.org/a/transnistria…
2/8 In 2023, Tiraspol's sales to the right bank (the Chisinau-controlled part of #Moldova) crossed 50% for the first time. Most of these "exports" are, of course, electricity produced from Russian gas at a power generating enterprise, also owned by #Russia...
3/8 ...but physically located on the left bank (transnistrian region).
It is clear that in this case we have a two-way dependence. But if we take out of this equation Chisinau, which at any moment can find another source of electricity (although more expensive) ...
(1/14)🔴"Liquidation operatio", risk of failure
For the first time in its history, 🇲🇩 has undertaken to abolish a political party & this adventure could fail. Here I wiil try to explain why 🇲🇩 authorities may not have the resources to ban a party that is "mutating" very fast.
2/14 In 2015-2016 the 27-year-old son of an oligarch, Ilan Shor, who took part in the theft of a billion, acquired his first political party, which was called "Ravnopravie" (Equality) and belonged to the chairman of the Congress of Russian Communities in 🇲🇩, Valeriy Klimenko.
3/14 Shor enters the political game and wins mayoral elections in a city in central #Moldova with its news party, renamed in honor of himself. The party begins its ideological struggle and, under the guise of social policy, imposes #Kremlin ideas: ...
❕Notes from #Transnistria: While the local media (read as “press service” of the local authorities) are silent about “invasion” of the region, people are informed from anonymous Telegram channels and Russian TV like “Russia Today” or “Rossia 24”.
There they are indoctrinated with "breaking news" that the Azov battalion is about to invade and take over the region. This sowed panic in the early days to the point that some began to think about leaving.
On the other hand, the Moldovan authorities, who said that no one was going to seize anyone, and “silent mode” of local media, played a calming role for transnistrians.