🧵I suggest that we all take a brief look back at what has happened in the #Transnistria case in the last couple of days: 1/6 Last week, the regional leader announced the Congress of all deputies of the unrecognized region. Context: Chisinau 🇲🇩 imposed customs duties, Tiraspol expressed dissatisfaction, protested, imposed retaliatory duties.

🧵 Let me explain to you why "Putin will annex #Transnistria" is one of the elements of hybrid warfare, and annexation is unlikely to happen. First of all, because ALL (!) the news that are based on the opinion of some opposition politician. Opinion. That's all. 2/10 As long as I have been following this region, there has been a huge amount of fakes and misinformation, manipulations. And all of them appeared at moments when Tiraspol needs to attract attention in order to gain some kind of financial advantages or 🇷🇺 wants to spread panic.

🧵in which I' ll try to explain why #Transnistria exports less and less to #Russia, and why Chisinau is now the main pillar in the region's economy, which only relies on Russian gas supplies (and not for long).
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1/8
moldova.europalibera.org/a/transnistria… 2/8 In 2023, Tiraspol's sales to the right bank (the Chisinau-controlled part of #Moldova) crossed 50% for the first time. Most of these "exports" are, of course, electricity produced from Russian gas at a power generating enterprise, also owned by #Russia...

1/7 🧵A thread about how #Russia is losing Transnistria🇲🇩.

With the beginning of Russia's military invasion of #Ukraine, Moscow deprived itself of the opportunity to participate in the negotiation process👇 2/7 From the "5+2" format (#Russia, OSCE, Ukraine, EU, #USA -- Tiraspol and Chisinau), the negotiations turned into 1+1 (Chisinau + Tiraspol).

(1/14)🔴"Liquidation operatio", risk of failure
For the first time in its history, 🇲🇩 has undertaken to abolish a political party & this adventure could fail. Here I wiil try to explain why 🇲🇩 authorities may not have the resources to ban a party that is "mutating" very fast. 2/14 In 2015-2016 the 27-year-old son of an oligarch, Ilan Shor, who took part in the theft of a billion, acquired his first political party, which was called "Ravnopravie" (Equality) and belonged to the chairman of the Congress of Russian Communities in 🇲🇩, Valeriy Klimenko.

❕Notes from #Transnistria: While the local media (read as “press service” of the local authorities) are silent about “invasion” of the region, people are informed from anonymous Telegram channels and Russian TV like “Russia Today” or “Rossia 24”. There they are indoctrinated with "breaking news" that the Azov battalion is about to invade and take over the region. This sowed panic in the early days to the point that some began to think about leaving.