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1/7 🧵A thread about how #Russia is losing Transnistria🇲🇩.
With the beginning of Russia's military invasion of #Ukraine, Moscow deprived itself of the opportunity to participate in the negotiation process👇
With the beginning of Russia's military invasion of #Ukraine, Moscow deprived itself of the opportunity to participate in the negotiation process👇
2/7 From the "5+2" format (#Russia, OSCE, Ukraine, EU, #USA -- Tiraspol and Chisinau), the negotiations turned into 1+1 (Chisinau + Tiraspol).
3/7 At the same time, the role and authority of the #EU US and #Romania in this process should increase, taking into account #Moldova's closer relations with the 🇪🇺Union.
4/7 The #EU already has a significant part in the Transnistrian region's exports - 32% of goods from Tiraspol in 2023 went to 🇪🇺 countries. And for the first time since the creation of the "Transnistrian Republic," exports to #Moldova exceeded 50% (from totl exports) > $300 mln.
5/7 Tiraspol has joined the export of 🇺🇦 grain.
If at the beginning of the Russian invasion Transnistria was looked at as a 100% threat, now Kyiv has risked to let (transit) its trains with grain through the territory not controlled by 🇲🇩 authorities.
If at the beginning of the Russian invasion Transnistria was looked at as a 100% threat, now Kyiv has risked to let (transit) its trains with grain through the territory not controlled by 🇲🇩 authorities.
6/7 For the first time, Chisinau will establish a joint customs point with Kyiv on the Transnistrian section of the border with #Ukraine.
7/7 And finally, with the termination of #Russian gas transit through #Ukraine (at the end of 2024), thanks to which Transnistria continues to exist, Chisinau and Tiraspol will have to think together how to provide the left bank with energy resources.
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