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Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Dec 2

https://twitter.com/battleforeurope/status/1730996255508045968

The death toll of children in the Tigray Wars was in all likelihood higher in both 2021 and 2022. But the UNHRC & OHCHR did not investigate this in their reports for either year.

Most of the deaths in these wars were were of child soldiers forcibly recruited into the Tigrayan Defence Forces.

https://twitter.com/battleforeurope/status/1730996255508045968

This is not to detract from the horror of the war in Gaza. But rather to highlight an injustice against the children of Tigray which for reasons unfathomable was monumentally mismanaged by the peak bodies of the UN. And about which the truth is overdue in being investigated, revealed or even acknowledged by Western news media.

The word “Ethiopia” does not even appear in the official report into “Children in Armed Conflict for the 2021 year.

During Operation Mothers of Tigray - the bulk of which took place in Amhara Region (which has a far higher population than Afar region) - Western Media at times cheer-leaded thé TPLF’s attacks during which 1000s of hospitals and health facilities were looted and destroyed by the marauding TPLF forces.

Read 12 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Nov 2

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1720155810247156169

This article is a little old 26th Oct. but as today is the day that we will likely find that Seymour & Luxon do not have a majority it’s most relevant today. scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2310…

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1720155810247156169

The problem - and this is my opinion not GC’s - is that nobody in the Labour Caucus seems to be willing to step up and take on the position of leader. There were some half hearted attempts to discuss having a leadership vote in caucus after the defeat. But the obvious candidate for caretaker PM Grant Robertson seems to still be unwilling to step up. He should be dragooned IMHO. And if. It him then Parker Sepoloni or Woods.

My understanding is that Chris Hipkins has not even picked up the phone to James Shaw (Greens) so probably also not Rawiri (Te Pati Māori) either.

This sort of uncertainty in Govt formation is a feature not a bug of MMP. And I think an illustration of MMP just doing its thing - and of an electorate which is learning how the system works. But it breaks the system if the 2nd Major party rules out forming a Govt.

Chris Hipkins at the moment seems to wwant to simply hand over the keys to the Beehive to Luxon. And in doing so I think he has effectively abdicated his responsibility - and therefore needs to resign to let the Caucus decide who should pick up the phone to Winston, Rawiri & James.

At 2pm we will find most likely that once again @WinstonPeters holds all the cards. Luxon’s on real alternative to get himself a working majority is Te Pati Māori. Conventional wisdom suggests the Greens 🥬 would ruin a good thing should they talk to Luxon.

But in coalition negotiations the devil is always in the detail and after a 2 week pause where Luxon has presumably commenced his courtship of Winston - this is where the negotiations will begin. But someone in Labour needs to also reach out to him. And Chippy needs to get out of the way.

Read 4 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Oct 9

#GazaWar Thoughts:

Hamas’s horrific attack has plunged the world back into terror mode. Which is a terrible thing for Israel. But also for all of us - the entire planet. Escalation to an attack on Iran is the immediate threat top of mind geopolitically.

But there are many more things to be worried about on the ground, particularly wrt to civilian casualties and human rights in both Israel and Palestine. A blood bath is threatened. 1/?

My initial response was of shock I saw the drone attack on patrol vehicle near Gaza, which was both novel and ominous in the form of both ab escalation and a warning.

Israel has been on the threshold of falling back into another terror intifada for years. But Hamas has been very calibrated in its responses to endless provocations till now.

This is more like a Palestinian attempt at a 6-day War sized reset to the conflict. 2/?

My questions in all of this has been why the massive change in tactics by Hamas? Islamic Jihad has been the lead military actor since the outbreak of conflict in summer 2021. That conflict ended mercifully quickly. Similarly the unfortunate Yair Lapid foray into bombing Gaza, a staged provocation and a swift end.

Read 12 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Sep 11

I’ve recently watched two videos which I think are very helpful for anyone seeking to understand where the #UkraineRussianWar is currently at.

The first is this one: Col. Macgregor speaks plainly about the weaknesses of Ukraine and the complete failure of #ukrainecounteroffensive before moving in to a very erudite discussion of the bigger picture and what it means for Europe in particular. Thé interviewer is Swiss from Die Welt.

Col Douglas Macgregor: The Russians Are Breaking Through via @YouTube

The second is this rather long and for the most part fairly boring recent meeting from of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament which is disappointingly shallow, both during the briefing and reply from @NATO Sec.Gen Stoltenberg, and the lengthy mostly self serving set of questions asked by MEPs.

The contrast in clarity is startling. Macgregor is crystal clear on the key point in understanding this war, one which has been obvious to all those who are not brainwashed by shallow media reports on the subject for several months.

Namely that the Ukraine Armed Forces are bogged down, under resourced and defeated in all reality except that contained in most Western Media headlines and reporting.

Read 6 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Sep 8

This is a very good, short wrap up from @firstpost’s Vantage with @palkisu on the Africa Climate Summit in Nairobi, touching on the core issues of disagreement between the global south and the developed nations on #ClimateTransition #ClimateEquity in recent global climate negotiations in Glasgow #COP26, Egypt #COP27, and which are set to come up again soon in Dubai at #COP28.

The disputes are about implementation of provisions in the Paris Climate Agreement which Western Nations appear to be unwilling or unable to honour.

The outcomes from the summit at this point appear to be poised to see an expansion of fossil fuel exploitation in Africa which whilst arguably equitable in theory, is both terrible for the climate and which history suggests will primarily benefit western nations and African kleptocrats rather than the 1.4 billion strong peoples of Africa.

Notably the summit takes place amid a geopolitical crisis in west Africa accompanied by a financial crisis in Africa’s largest economy Nigeria which has had its foreign reserves looted by corrupt officials and oligarchs. In the wider West African region there is now a geopolitical crisis with competition between France, Russia and the US over exploitation of mineral & energy resources.

At the same time a spate of coups which began in Guinea and now includes Burkina Faso, Mali, and most recently Niger and Gabon. Reporting on these coups suggests that the post-colonial, colonisation issues on the continent remain seriously problematic.

The Paris Global Financial Summit in June which preceded the Africa Climate Summit included what “appeared to be an agreement” on a reform to the post WWII Bretton Woods global financial order which is yet to be implemented.

The decision by African leaders to pursue fossil fuel extraction as a pathway to development is opposed by many national parties to the Paris Climate Agreement and Ny civil society and activist groups, notably coming together under the @fossiltreaty which has growing momentum.

Unfortunately beyond a series of seemingly noble statements of intent around climate finance, loss & damages and much needed development (education & health) and climate mitigation (green energy) adaptation (infrastructure) and resilience (future proofing of infrastructure) actual funding which is needed in the trillions is not yet flowing.

Western nations have been making noises about funding for Africa for several years, but the European commitments announced in Feb 2022 with #GlobalGateway and US commitments to build green technology supply chains in Africa (DRC and Zambia) in August 2022 are yet to produce any tangible results.

Read 6 tweets

Alastair Thompson

@althecat

Aug 25

Ok so at 37 minutes in (near the end of the edited Q&A portion of this press conference the ECOWAS spokesperson begins « we don’t want people to be confused » - which is somewhat ironic given how confusing this latest restatement of threatened use of force to restore constitutional order in Niger is.,

The-war-that-has-not-yet-started-but-won’t-go-away appears to be back in the frame again after this rather desperate press conference accusing media in the region of being hysterical about the ECOWAS decision to keep use of military force (albeit not invasion) on the table in this ongoing dispute.

The main argument the spokesperson seems to make here is that ECOWAS has powers to do this from some rather old « instruments » and has decided to do so.

He says that no date has been set for a not-an-invasion-of-Niger to restore order, but did not mention an earlier statement from an ECOWAS military spokesperson which said that a d-day had been set.

He also objected to the use of the term « invasion » on the basis that if an invasion is authorised by an « instrument » which Niger has agreed to it is no longer an invasion.

Read 11 tweets

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