Thread by @MoriartyLab

FYI

Hosting a dinner party of 12 avg Canadians currently carries COVID health risks equivalent to each person smoking 84 cigarettes.

33 cigarettes if you open windows/run HEPA filters.

The average smoker smokes this in a week.

It's like holding the party in a very smoky bar.

https://twitter.com/MoriartyLab/status/1731441072188891435

Number of cigarettes smoked is great way to view this. It's not catastrophic, but it's clearly not great.

It's up to the host and party-goers to decide whether the environment is like a VERY smoky bar (no mitigations), or a decidedly less smoky bar (open windows, HEPA).

If people test immediately before attending/hosting, the risk goes down to be the equivalent of less than half a pack of cigarettes smoked/person, which still seems like a lot, but is also at least what the average smoker smokes per day.

Here's a way to look at this.

If you're young and healthy, attending a party in a very smoky bar or club, or smoking half a pack of cigarettes a day for a week probably won't have catastrophic consequences, unless you have an underlying risk factor.

But, who might be unable/not want to attend a very smoky party due to health issues.

Would someone with asthma or COPD or heart disease want to attend?

They might choose to go to a party in very smoky bar or smoke half a pack of cigarettes/day for a week. They might not.

If you're a host, you can open windows and run HEPA filters to get rid of some of that smoke--not all, but at least half.

You can further reduce the smoke if everyone tests before and stays home if sick/positive.

These measures aren't perfect, but they reduce risk a lot.

You can also choose not to do these things or to attend a very smoky party--it's a choice.

God knows being at parties or bars or flying in the 70s, 80s and even 90s (my childhood and early adulthood) were like this wrt smoke.

It's probably like a week of intense wildfire smoke.

I think what people need to understand though is that having a party like this without mitigations IS like hosting it in a very smoky bar. The host and guests can gauge the risk of a very smoky bar and decide accordingly.

As a host (or guest) thinking of this as a very smoky bar might actually help you make decisions.

Is there someone who wouldn't be able to attend a party in a very smoky bar, who would be made sick by smoking half a pack of cigarettes a day for a week?

If everyone tests before, you open windows and run HEPA filters, it would be like smoking 2 cigarettes a day for a week. That's something that someone higher risk might be able to tolerate.

Or they may not be able to, in which case you need more protections, or they can't come.

Holiday gatherings are associated with more risk for everyone, due to drinking, drinking and driving, icy roads, overeating, smoking, drugs. This is not a kind time of year for hospitalizations and mortality.

You may wish to reduce some of that risk by testing and ventilation.

And if you don't, that's ok. As long as everyone understands that hosting/attending that party is like having it in a very smoky bar, and then makes decisions accordingly.

This scenario is run with avg infection risks for avg Cdn, given current prevalence in Canada.

However, a lot of COVID is transmitted in super-spreader events, and not everyone is average.

If we run this scenario in "safe" mode, assuming super-spreader transmission, the number of cigarettes smoked is much higher than 84/person.

@netgaines @CircaLiz @Wikisteff might be able to provide the "safe" mode estimate.

@netgaines @CircaLiz @Wikisteff They also do these estimates expressed as the equivalent dollars of quality-adjusted life years lost or km driven. Cigarettes is the easiest thing to convey briefly, because most of us "get" this.

@netgaines @CircaLiz @Wikisteff I'm thinking doing a longer post about this/developing graphics that help people understand this in different ways might be useful.

We need to do it soon, before holiday party season enters full swing!

It would help people understand why testing, ventilating are worth it.

@netgaines @CircaLiz @Wikisteff PPS this way of framing the problem is the brainchild of @netgaines .... and the risk estimator is all @Wikisteff .

All the credit is to them, and @CircaLiz