We still live in a society of geocentric creationists.
For 98% of people "evolution/Big Bang" just occupies the slot where "God" once did.
We must integrate the meaning of a snowball planet of alien creatures, battered by asteroids or worse.
A 🧵on the last 4.5 billion years:
Some wacky people try to fit dinosaurs into 3000 BC.
"Scientifically rebutting" them is a meaningless achievement, because it fails to address the actual and very deep problem:
How can we possibly put the starting point of meaningful history *after* dragons walked the Earth?
"The science" fails to address this problem, instead downplaying such incredible facts into irrelevance.
People thus just replace the "God" Story with the new "Science" Story and continue believing meaningful history starts in 3000 BC—or 1619, 1776, or 1945.
This means there is functionally little difference between a Bible-thumping creationist and a typical secular person.
Neither is interested in the actual 4.5 billion years of Earthly history. Angels or dinosaurs are just a way to fill in the blank spaces so they can be ignored.
Not only are we implicit creationists with no interest in our primordial past, we are implicit geocentrists with no interest in other planets or stars.
Despite incredible scientific findings and new technology, modern society thus remains effectively medieval.
Cosmophobia.
There are good reasons to fear the actual cosmos, but they do not justify preferring imagined universes.
So what are the meaningful implications of the scientifically-learned history of the Earth?
To begin with, I think it basically disproves environmentalism…
The Earth has repeatedly terraformed itself into new worlds.
Earth has been a lava world and a water world, maybe orange and then purple, and, of course, a nearly-or-completely frozen-over "snowball" world.
Most of its history, the Earth was unrecognizable as the Earth.
As with all such primordial history, nearly everything is far more of a "maybe" than a "certainly." But we know the Earth wasn't ever static.
This means the imagined Mother Earth is not a permanent place or planet, but just a temporary period of time.
The Gaia hypothesis is the idea that life itself affects Earth's climate and sustains the conditions for life in a single self-regulating system.
Intended or not, it has become the intellectual justification for quasi-religious "We Are All One" environmentalism.
But we are not all one: e.g. the introduction of oxygen into the atmosphere by aerobic bacteria was likely a total genocide of earlier organisms.
After that, the Earth [almost?] froze over at least twice, befuddling scientists as to how it didn’t just kill all life.
Sure, you could say all this happened before the emergence of what we consider meaningful life i.e. land animals, ~500m years ago, which has since survived despite several extinction events.
But that is just again arbitrarily setting the starting point of meaningful history.
If we take the Earth's full and actual history to be Mother Gaia harmoniously regulating herself, then this “self-regulation” includes occasional climatic genocide verging on extinguishing all life.
Doesn't actually seem very harmonious. Humanity likely wouldn't survive it.
To believe in Gaia-ism, you then need to morally equate human life with, like, deep-sea bacteria.
Because this might be the only life that survives "self-regulation."
This is really just a genocidal mindset towards humanity. No, we are not like cockroaches or bacteria.
It is perhaps not humans who are destroying the Earth, but the Earth that is very slowly trying to destroy humans!
You may just have to pick a side. Of course, many people would and do choose Gaia over humanity. But this does also make them anti-human.
Secondly, Earth is not a sanctuary or Garden of Eden for humanity.
Occasionally, asteroids do impact the Earth and just totally obliterate everything. Given a big enough asteroid, there might be nothing we could do to stop total extinction.
We are not safe here.
We know that 66 million years ago an asteroid 10-15 km wide smashed into what is today Mexico and killed, like, every animal on the planet that didn't live off of eating dead matter, including all the dinosaurs.
Talk about apocalyptic events. And this was relatively recent!
The Earth is constantly peppered by meteoroids. The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs is neither the largest nor oldest confirmed impact. Just look at the map.
It then seems like there is a decent chance of a catastrophic asteroid impact sometime during humanity's existence.
So what does this mean? Well, if God hated us… believe me, we would know!
Jokes aside, it implies we cannot reconcile our continued long-term habitation of Earth with low-tech primitivism.
We were cast out of Eden. Perhaps we might only rebuild it with anti-asteroid lasers.
It seems a little bit passé given the other gargantuan changes, but I should also note how plate tectonics constantly remake geography.
If you go back far enough, the Earth might as well be Narnia, Middle Earth, or Faerûn or whatever.
Finally, the Earth might, incredibly, not be unique.
Kookiness aside, the science says it is possible Venus and/or Mars used to have liquid surface water and thus maybe life—even before Earth!
It is also conceivable that life came to Earth from Venus or Mars on an asteroid.
The Earth also has an expiration date for habitability.
The Sun is getting bigger and brighter and will slowly heat the Earth beyond the point where life as we know it can survive.
It might even happen relatively soon, in ~1 billion years.
That there is a definite endpoint to life on Earth, and that Earth may not be unique in hosting life on a billion-year timescale, could imply it is not habitable environments that create the conditions for life, but life that seeks out habitable conditions across space and time.
This logic can easily take you into kooky territory if projected backwards: alien-ish life hopping from Venus to Mars to Earth and beyond as planets die.
But it is perfectly sound projected forwards: humanity will eventually either figure out how to leave the Earth, or die out.
This is why we should not be geocentrists: humanity cannot be tantamount to Earth-Dwellers unless we intend to die out within a billion years.
The pessimist says we will kill ourselves somehow anyway long before. But why should we *intend* this? We should intend the opposite.
It is possible to view life as a fundamentally interplanetary phenomenon, as did some of the original pioneers of rocketry and space travel.
This obviously makes space exploration a fundamental existential priority, as I wrote in @palladiummag: palladiummag.com/2023/08/16/the…
I won't pretend to have figured out the true cosmology and metaphysics. But we should be trying to actually figure it out based on scientific reality, not imagination or inertia.
This is likely the only path to ever see a mass religious awakening in the developed world again.
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There is this idea that a major war with Russia or China would be politically unsustainable for the West due to high casualties. I think this view is dangerously wrong. Rather major war would "solve" all of the West's political problems by enabling massive domestic repression.
The idea that Western liberal democracies are not capable of heavy-handed domestic repression or heavy-handed mobilization of the population for elite political preferences should have been conclusively disproved by the events of both the pandemic and the war in Ukraine.
If a Western liberal democracy can force you to stay at home, it can force you into a bomb shelter.
If it can force you to take a medical intervention, it can force you to be drafted into the army.
Zoomers don't read. This also means they don't write, which I find as if not more concerning. What remains of the online thinker world/Blogosphere seems exclusively dominated by Millennials and Gen Xers. I can't think of any prominent Zoomer writers, even rising ones.
Boomers also didn't read or write compared to watching television, so this can change with each new generation. But that Zoomers don't read or write is as much of a clear and negative regression as that they don't know how to use a computer properly.
It's great that Zoomers are so fluent with video content, but being fluent in video and text is not mutually exclusive. Millennials were and are both, to their benefit and credit.
Been reading about an extremely dynamic hardware manufacturing startup that has had massive success releasing superior, cheaper products across dozens of categories, with a cult following, led by a founder who is a genuine maker.
It isn't a Silicon Valley company. It's Xiaomi.
I'm not even going to bother listing all of Xiaomi and its founder @leijun's mind-boggling achievements of quality, speed, and startup dynamism. You can read the inevitable @bismarckanlys Brief for that.
Suffice it to say if Xiaomi was a U.S. company, it'd be worth $3 trillion.
A successful software entrepreneur decides to launch a hardware manufacturing startup to prove his nation still has the chops to make great products at low prices and win globally against imposing foreign brands...
...no this isn't America in 2024, it's China in 2010.
$2 billion. In 1 year. All to advocates of social justice and environmentalism. Just imagine if donors who supported space exploration, nuclear expansion, and quality governance gave $2 billion to intellectual workers on their own side, rather than yelling at them to write code.
If intellectual work is fake and has no impact, then why are we all so upset at $2 billion going to such advocates? Why do such advocates succeed at altering government policy and social norms to the point that someone like Elon Musk feels a need to launch emergency politics?
Woke intellectuals: get $50-$100 million lump sum donations at a time, including from tech billionaires (???)
Non-woke intellectuals: get $348 every two weeks on X for posting viral content, $20/mo Substack subscription, day job is being a code monkey
Europe since the mid-2000s is ruled by Germanic authoritarian socialism-lite busybody grandmas who can barely use email and think TikTok and Bitcoin are bad guys from Star Wars.
This more than anything explains the ridiculous risk aversion of European leaders.
The authoritarian grandmas ruling Europe are as intrinsically uncurious about and scared of new ideas and technology as any fat Boomer dictator from the Third World who might be parodied by Sacha Baron Cohen.
In Western and Northern Europe, the European males are deathly afraid of contradicting the authoritarian grandma. It is just "not done." You have to be nice to grandma. Even if she is shutting down the nuclear plants and so on.
Things governments are willing to use as fertility incentives: less income tax (but not social security tax), used cars nobody wants, loans with good rate for you my friend to build houses in rural areas, discounts on vaccines...
Things they are not: anything high-status
There is not a government in the world that has given young people of childbearing age the power to decide a program of fertility incentives.
All such programs are decided by Boomers who pretty much hate young people and think they should be grateful slaves to the elderly.