Marko Jukic Profile picture
Dec 4, 2023 26 tweets 9 min read Read on X
We still live in a society of geocentric creationists.

For 98% of people "evolution/Big Bang" just occupies the slot where "God" once did.

We must integrate the meaning of a snowball planet of alien creatures, battered by asteroids or worse.

A 🧵on the last 4.5 billion years:

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Some wacky people try to fit dinosaurs into 3000 BC.

"Scientifically rebutting" them is a meaningless achievement, because it fails to address the actual and very deep problem:

How can we possibly put the starting point of meaningful history *after* dragons walked the Earth? Image
"The science" fails to address this problem, instead downplaying such incredible facts into irrelevance.

People thus just replace the "God" Story with the new "Science" Story and continue believing meaningful history starts in 3000 BC—or 1619, 1776, or 1945.
This means there is functionally little difference between a Bible-thumping creationist and a typical secular person.

Neither is interested in the actual 4.5 billion years of Earthly history. Angels or dinosaurs are just a way to fill in the blank spaces so they can be ignored. Image
Not only are we implicit creationists with no interest in our primordial past, we are implicit geocentrists with no interest in other planets or stars.

Despite incredible scientific findings and new technology, modern society thus remains effectively medieval.

Cosmophobia. Image
There are good reasons to fear the actual cosmos, but they do not justify preferring imagined universes.

So what are the meaningful implications of the scientifically-learned history of the Earth?

To begin with, I think it basically disproves environmentalism…
The Earth has repeatedly terraformed itself into new worlds.

Earth has been a lava world and a water world, maybe orange and then purple, and, of course, a nearly-or-completely frozen-over "snowball" world.

Most of its history, the Earth was unrecognizable as the Earth.

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As with all such primordial history, nearly everything is far more of a "maybe" than a "certainly." But we know the Earth wasn't ever static.

This means the imagined Mother Earth is not a permanent place or planet, but just a temporary period of time. Image
The Gaia hypothesis is the idea that life itself affects Earth's climate and sustains the conditions for life in a single self-regulating system.

Intended or not, it has become the intellectual justification for quasi-religious "We Are All One" environmentalism. Image
But we are not all one: e.g. the introduction of oxygen into the atmosphere by aerobic bacteria was likely a total genocide of earlier organisms.

After that, the Earth [almost?] froze over at least twice, befuddling scientists as to how it didn’t just kill all life.
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Sure, you could say all this happened before the emergence of what we consider meaningful life i.e. land animals, ~500m years ago, which has since survived despite several extinction events.

But that is just again arbitrarily setting the starting point of meaningful history.
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If we take the Earth's full and actual history to be Mother Gaia harmoniously regulating herself, then this “self-regulation” includes occasional climatic genocide verging on extinguishing all life.

Doesn't actually seem very harmonious. Humanity likely wouldn't survive it.
To believe in Gaia-ism, you then need to morally equate human life with, like, deep-sea bacteria.

Because this might be the only life that survives "self-regulation."

This is really just a genocidal mindset towards humanity. No, we are not like cockroaches or bacteria.
It is perhaps not humans who are destroying the Earth, but the Earth that is very slowly trying to destroy humans!

You may just have to pick a side. Of course, many people would and do choose Gaia over humanity. But this does also make them anti-human.
Secondly, Earth is not a sanctuary or Garden of Eden for humanity.

Occasionally, asteroids do impact the Earth and just totally obliterate everything. Given a big enough asteroid, there might be nothing we could do to stop total extinction.

We are not safe here. Image
We know that 66 million years ago an asteroid 10-15 km wide smashed into what is today Mexico and killed, like, every animal on the planet that didn't live off of eating dead matter, including all the dinosaurs.

Talk about apocalyptic events. And this was relatively recent! Image
The Earth is constantly peppered by meteoroids. The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs is neither the largest nor oldest confirmed impact. Just look at the map.

It then seems like there is a decent chance of a catastrophic asteroid impact sometime during humanity's existence. Image
So what does this mean? Well, if God hated us… believe me, we would know!

Jokes aside, it implies we cannot reconcile our continued long-term habitation of Earth with low-tech primitivism.

We were cast out of Eden. Perhaps we might only rebuild it with anti-asteroid lasers.
It seems a little bit passé given the other gargantuan changes, but I should also note how plate tectonics constantly remake geography.

If you go back far enough, the Earth might as well be Narnia, Middle Earth, or Faerûn or whatever. Image
Finally, the Earth might, incredibly, not be unique.

Kookiness aside, the science says it is possible Venus and/or Mars used to have liquid surface water and thus maybe life—even before Earth!

It is also conceivable that life came to Earth from Venus or Mars on an asteroid.
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The Earth also has an expiration date for habitability.

The Sun is getting bigger and brighter and will slowly heat the Earth beyond the point where life as we know it can survive.

It might even happen relatively soon, in ~1 billion years.
That there is a definite endpoint to life on Earth, and that Earth may not be unique in hosting life on a billion-year timescale, could imply it is not habitable environments that create the conditions for life, but life that seeks out habitable conditions across space and time.
This logic can easily take you into kooky territory if projected backwards: alien-ish life hopping from Venus to Mars to Earth and beyond as planets die.

But it is perfectly sound projected forwards: humanity will eventually either figure out how to leave the Earth, or die out.
This is why we should not be geocentrists: humanity cannot be tantamount to Earth-Dwellers unless we intend to die out within a billion years.

The pessimist says we will kill ourselves somehow anyway long before. But why should we *intend* this? We should intend the opposite.
It is possible to view life as a fundamentally interplanetary phenomenon, as did some of the original pioneers of rocketry and space travel.

This obviously makes space exploration a fundamental existential priority, as I wrote in @palladiummag:
palladiummag.com/2023/08/16/the…
I won't pretend to have figured out the true cosmology and metaphysics. But we should be trying to actually figure it out based on scientific reality, not imagination or inertia.

This is likely the only path to ever see a mass religious awakening in the developed world again.

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More from @mmjukic

May 30
I mean, it's a good question. Why hasn't human civilization naturally developed into a brutal aristocracy of the highly moral and high-IQ? Why don't we have a global "130 IQ high-trust Anglo" paradise already?

What mysterious force obviously overcomes and beats intelligence?
I think the only way I can answer it is something like: the force that mysteriously overcomes intelligence is the inertial collapse of structures put together by still yet more intelligent players in the past.
Why is it so hard to reform institutions even with great intelligence? It's because when functional institutions are built in the first place, they are designed with multitudinous failsafes and killswitches to prevent them from being changed (and thus also from being reformed).
Read 19 tweets
May 26
It is a massive gaping fallacy threatening to swallow up all organized religions entirely that the only choices are "instrumentalizing religion for other ends" or "total and deliberate inward obscurantism with no outwardly verifiable or tangible signs of functionality needed."
E-trads are fully aware that essentially all notable organized religions are in massive decline and incapable of fighting the forces of the secular world in any meaningful way, but somehow also refuse to admit this obviously means religious institutions are dysfunctional.
The institutional decline of organized religion has obviously not resulted in a decline of religiously-inspired action and thinking. It has just been taken up by nominally irreligious ideologies and groups that nonetheless make moral and theological claims with great enthusiasm.
Read 5 tweets
May 25
The real problem with organized religions today is the same problem as in any organization: they are too vulnerable to becoming ossified husks full of gerontocrats in expensive clothing who are trivially mogged and defeated by the few young moral and theological entrepreneurs.
I think @bronzeagemantis is right about a huge fraction of "religious trads" as functionally suck-ups and suckers for these types of gerontocrats who have in fact failed to keep their tradition alive but are coasting on insights and achievements from literally >1000 years ago.
@bronzeagemantis The small clique of Bay Area "Effective Altruists" behind Anthropic are more dynamic moral and theological thinkers than the entire Catholic Church, which is why one of them is lecturing the gerontocrats in this video and the Pope is aping their ideas rather than the reverse.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 2
There is really no way to explain the U.S. government's decision to launch this Iran War the way it did without reference to extreme ignorance, stupidity, or recklessness. It seems like not one relevant person actually understood the consequences of Iran closing the Strait.
If a single relevant person truly grasped the magnitude of what they were doing, they would have had shouting matches with everyone until it was decided against. Even if somehow not, there would have been crystal-clear messaging and five contingency plans ready to go from day 1.
This isn't some unpredictable third-order effect. Any economics or foreign policy halfwit could have told you that Iran is dangerous because it threatens to close the Strait and even a brief investigation would have confirmed this beyond all doubt.
Read 5 tweets
Mar 8
97% price reduction? 16% deflation year over year on durable consumer goods? We should put the people who make plasma TVs in charge of the government. That means we need to elect the *opens book* wait a second *flips pages* oh no *sweating profusely* oh no no no not like that Image
Do I want to simp for China? No. But China is run by the "97% price reduction" party. Europe and America are run by the "increase the price of housing and education by 500% party," with brief interruptions by the "let's accidentally blow up the world's oil and gas supply" party.
You would think (a) don't blow up the world's supply of oil and gas and (b) if you're sitting on your hands, just build nuclear plants until the cost of energy is zero would be table stakes. For some incredible reason however only the Chinese communists manage to clear this bar.
Read 7 tweets
Feb 24
If DeepSeek (160 employees) can somehow smuggle huge numbers of scarce, cutting-edge chips into a secret AI facility on the Mongolian steppe in violation of the strictest U.S. government export controls ever, and thus build the AGI before we do—they basically deserve to win.
Nobody seems to notice that the overwhelmingly obvious implication of all this breathless fulminating about Chinese AI labs getting any kind of access to Nvidia chips is that, if China had unrestricted access to said chips, they would have left U.S. labs in the dust years ago!
Imagine thinking you are going to win the future of the lightcone by tripping up your rivals with wordcel government regulations and restrictions rather than honorably shape-rotating technology into being. Then getting mad they ignore your wordcel spells.
Read 7 tweets

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