We still live in a society of geocentric creationists.
For 98% of people "evolution/Big Bang" just occupies the slot where "God" once did.
We must integrate the meaning of a snowball planet of alien creatures, battered by asteroids or worse.
A 🧵on the last 4.5 billion years:
Some wacky people try to fit dinosaurs into 3000 BC.
"Scientifically rebutting" them is a meaningless achievement, because it fails to address the actual and very deep problem:
How can we possibly put the starting point of meaningful history *after* dragons walked the Earth?
"The science" fails to address this problem, instead downplaying such incredible facts into irrelevance.
People thus just replace the "God" Story with the new "Science" Story and continue believing meaningful history starts in 3000 BC—or 1619, 1776, or 1945.
This means there is functionally little difference between a Bible-thumping creationist and a typical secular person.
Neither is interested in the actual 4.5 billion years of Earthly history. Angels or dinosaurs are just a way to fill in the blank spaces so they can be ignored.
Not only are we implicit creationists with no interest in our primordial past, we are implicit geocentrists with no interest in other planets or stars.
Despite incredible scientific findings and new technology, modern society thus remains effectively medieval.
Cosmophobia.
There are good reasons to fear the actual cosmos, but they do not justify preferring imagined universes.
So what are the meaningful implications of the scientifically-learned history of the Earth?
To begin with, I think it basically disproves environmentalism…
The Earth has repeatedly terraformed itself into new worlds.
Earth has been a lava world and a water world, maybe orange and then purple, and, of course, a nearly-or-completely frozen-over "snowball" world.
Most of its history, the Earth was unrecognizable as the Earth.
As with all such primordial history, nearly everything is far more of a "maybe" than a "certainly." But we know the Earth wasn't ever static.
This means the imagined Mother Earth is not a permanent place or planet, but just a temporary period of time.
The Gaia hypothesis is the idea that life itself affects Earth's climate and sustains the conditions for life in a single self-regulating system.
Intended or not, it has become the intellectual justification for quasi-religious "We Are All One" environmentalism.
But we are not all one: e.g. the introduction of oxygen into the atmosphere by aerobic bacteria was likely a total genocide of earlier organisms.
After that, the Earth [almost?] froze over at least twice, befuddling scientists as to how it didn’t just kill all life.
Sure, you could say all this happened before the emergence of what we consider meaningful life i.e. land animals, ~500m years ago, which has since survived despite several extinction events.
But that is just again arbitrarily setting the starting point of meaningful history.
If we take the Earth's full and actual history to be Mother Gaia harmoniously regulating herself, then this “self-regulation” includes occasional climatic genocide verging on extinguishing all life.
Doesn't actually seem very harmonious. Humanity likely wouldn't survive it.
To believe in Gaia-ism, you then need to morally equate human life with, like, deep-sea bacteria.
Because this might be the only life that survives "self-regulation."
This is really just a genocidal mindset towards humanity. No, we are not like cockroaches or bacteria.
It is perhaps not humans who are destroying the Earth, but the Earth that is very slowly trying to destroy humans!
You may just have to pick a side. Of course, many people would and do choose Gaia over humanity. But this does also make them anti-human.
Secondly, Earth is not a sanctuary or Garden of Eden for humanity.
Occasionally, asteroids do impact the Earth and just totally obliterate everything. Given a big enough asteroid, there might be nothing we could do to stop total extinction.
We are not safe here.
We know that 66 million years ago an asteroid 10-15 km wide smashed into what is today Mexico and killed, like, every animal on the planet that didn't live off of eating dead matter, including all the dinosaurs.
Talk about apocalyptic events. And this was relatively recent!
The Earth is constantly peppered by meteoroids. The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs is neither the largest nor oldest confirmed impact. Just look at the map.
It then seems like there is a decent chance of a catastrophic asteroid impact sometime during humanity's existence.
So what does this mean? Well, if God hated us… believe me, we would know!
Jokes aside, it implies we cannot reconcile our continued long-term habitation of Earth with low-tech primitivism.
We were cast out of Eden. Perhaps we might only rebuild it with anti-asteroid lasers.
It seems a little bit passé given the other gargantuan changes, but I should also note how plate tectonics constantly remake geography.
If you go back far enough, the Earth might as well be Narnia, Middle Earth, or Faerûn or whatever.
Finally, the Earth might, incredibly, not be unique.
Kookiness aside, the science says it is possible Venus and/or Mars used to have liquid surface water and thus maybe life—even before Earth!
It is also conceivable that life came to Earth from Venus or Mars on an asteroid.
The Earth also has an expiration date for habitability.
The Sun is getting bigger and brighter and will slowly heat the Earth beyond the point where life as we know it can survive.
It might even happen relatively soon, in ~1 billion years.
That there is a definite endpoint to life on Earth, and that Earth may not be unique in hosting life on a billion-year timescale, could imply it is not habitable environments that create the conditions for life, but life that seeks out habitable conditions across space and time.
This logic can easily take you into kooky territory if projected backwards: alien-ish life hopping from Venus to Mars to Earth and beyond as planets die.
But it is perfectly sound projected forwards: humanity will eventually either figure out how to leave the Earth, or die out.
This is why we should not be geocentrists: humanity cannot be tantamount to Earth-Dwellers unless we intend to die out within a billion years.
The pessimist says we will kill ourselves somehow anyway long before. But why should we *intend* this? We should intend the opposite.
It is possible to view life as a fundamentally interplanetary phenomenon, as did some of the original pioneers of rocketry and space travel.
This obviously makes space exploration a fundamental existential priority, as I wrote in @palladiummag: palladiummag.com/2023/08/16/the…
I won't pretend to have figured out the true cosmology and metaphysics. But we should be trying to actually figure it out based on scientific reality, not imagination or inertia.
This is likely the only path to ever see a mass religious awakening in the developed world again.
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The story, apparently: after disastrous, tyrannical pandemic policies including mass theft via hyperinflation, "sensible moderate pro-market" economists, bankers, and conservative politicians impoverished you further by suppressing wages with migrant labor. Did I get that right?
If true it's a textbook case of plain catastrophically bad governance. Bungling a practical problem (pandemic response), reacting by printing money and causing huge inflation, then making the situation worse by suppressing the wages you yourself inflated, impoverishing workers.
"Pro-market" economists and politicians seem to have a very hard time accepting the outcome of the free market, when the market wants higher wages. Somehow they rationalize that mass-importing migrant labor at a crazy pace doesn't qualify as anti-market government intervention!
I still haven't read a single investigative journalism deep-dive on why every country in the Anglosphere, Eastern Europe, and Japan all simultaneously pulled the "More Immigration" lever so hard it apparently snapped off right around late 2021.
Anons seem to be slowly piecing together what no investigative journalist has bothered to do. The story interestingly seems to be that this was driven by economists and central bankers rather than left-wing political activists or politicians.
There is nothing stopping Boomers from looting the treasury to 1000% debt-to-GDP. There is nothing stopping fertility rates going to 0.1 kids per woman. There is nothing stopping developed countries from mass-importing more immigrants until natives are 30% of the population.
"Surely someone will do something!" Okay, but what if they don't? What then? We are all going to live to see the consequences for the rest of our lifetimes. What does the world actually look like as this plays out?
China is more than willing to spot us $10-$100 trillion in order to let us completely destroy our societies with debt, entitlement spending, overregulation, de-development, and mass immigration. More predictable victory that way than fighting WW3!
The really uncomfortable part is that this applies not just to the U.S. population, but the populations of at least a billion people outside the U.S. How deep, really, are the "cultural differences" among human beings integrated into one globalized industrial civilization?
I've never heard anyone argue that the entire globe ought to be considered a single civilization. Yet why not? When you look at economic, elite, intellectual, and cultural flows, we are far more closely integrated than Ancient Rome and Ancient China.
I am pretty sure the economic and institutional processes to manufacture most technologically advanced goods nowadays touch most if not literally all continents and definitely depend on multiple rival states/blocs, obviously China. What does this imply for "civilization"?
The real China bull case even China hawks/watchers don't appreciate yet is pretty simple: by default we should expect China to grossly surpass all previous attempts at industrial growth, because it has way more people, of greater discipline and math aptitude, at greater density.
The NATO+ bloc also has around 1-2 billion people, but almost maximally geographically dispersed compared to China with way more internal barriers to industrial growth. China can perhaps fundamentally get more efficient economies of scale, better concentration of talent, etc.
This reframes the U.S.-led world's task as not of passively containing China or rekindling a past industrial glory, but of implementing urgent, revolutionary reforms to remain competitive with a rival with on paper already superior fundamentals, to do things never done before.
I am allergic to "talent is lacking" arguments because most people are just blissfully unaware of how ridiculously, comically, unbelievably over-the-top generous progressive philanthropy is. They literally give away millions, *billions* of dollars with effectively no oversight.
Not only that but there is no shortage of progressive donors doing this. Forget about USAID—you scratch a random corporation anywhere in the world, say Ikea, and you discover that it is for some reason disbursing, also, billions of dollars to progressive causes indiscriminately.
Even apolitical, centrist, or even mildly right-coded donors will occasionally, for inexplicable reasons, dump a cool *$100 million* on *checks notes* Van Jones. No comparison here. Progressive philanthropy is a tsunami, everything else combined is a lukewarm glass of water.