Marko Jukic Profile picture
Dec 4 26 tweets 9 min read Twitter logo Read on Twitter
We still live in a society of geocentric creationists.

For 98% of people "evolution/Big Bang" just occupies the slot where "God" once did.

We must integrate the meaning of a snowball planet of alien creatures, battered by asteroids or worse.

A 🧵on the last 4.5 billion years:

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Some wacky people try to fit dinosaurs into 3000 BC.

"Scientifically rebutting" them is a meaningless achievement, because it fails to address the actual and very deep problem:

How can we possibly put the starting point of meaningful history *after* dragons walked the Earth? Image
"The science" fails to address this problem, instead downplaying such incredible facts into irrelevance.

People thus just replace the "God" Story with the new "Science" Story and continue believing meaningful history starts in 3000 BC—or 1619, 1776, or 1945.
This means there is functionally little difference between a Bible-thumping creationist and a typical secular person.

Neither is interested in the actual 4.5 billion years of Earthly history. Angels or dinosaurs are just a way to fill in the blank spaces so they can be ignored. Image
Not only are we implicit creationists with no interest in our primordial past, we are implicit geocentrists with no interest in other planets or stars.

Despite incredible scientific findings and new technology, modern society thus remains effectively medieval.

Cosmophobia. Image
There are good reasons to fear the actual cosmos, but they do not justify preferring imagined universes.

So what are the meaningful implications of the scientifically-learned history of the Earth?

To begin with, I think it basically disproves environmentalism…
The Earth has repeatedly terraformed itself into new worlds.

Earth has been a lava world and a water world, maybe orange and then purple, and, of course, a nearly-or-completely frozen-over "snowball" world.

Most of its history, the Earth was unrecognizable as the Earth.

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As with all such primordial history, nearly everything is far more of a "maybe" than a "certainly." But we know the Earth wasn't ever static.

This means the imagined Mother Earth is not a permanent place or planet, but just a temporary period of time. Image
The Gaia hypothesis is the idea that life itself affects Earth's climate and sustains the conditions for life in a single self-regulating system.

Intended or not, it has become the intellectual justification for quasi-religious "We Are All One" environmentalism. Image
But we are not all one: e.g. the introduction of oxygen into the atmosphere by aerobic bacteria was likely a total genocide of earlier organisms.

After that, the Earth [almost?] froze over at least twice, befuddling scientists as to how it didn’t just kill all life.
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Sure, you could say all this happened before the emergence of what we consider meaningful life i.e. land animals, ~500m years ago, which has since survived despite several extinction events.

But that is just again arbitrarily setting the starting point of meaningful history.
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If we take the Earth's full and actual history to be Mother Gaia harmoniously regulating herself, then this “self-regulation” includes occasional climatic genocide verging on extinguishing all life.

Doesn't actually seem very harmonious. Humanity likely wouldn't survive it.
To believe in Gaia-ism, you then need to morally equate human life with, like, deep-sea bacteria.

Because this might be the only life that survives "self-regulation."

This is really just a genocidal mindset towards humanity. No, we are not like cockroaches or bacteria.
It is perhaps not humans who are destroying the Earth, but the Earth that is very slowly trying to destroy humans!

You may just have to pick a side. Of course, many people would and do choose Gaia over humanity. But this does also make them anti-human.
Secondly, Earth is not a sanctuary or Garden of Eden for humanity.

Occasionally, asteroids do impact the Earth and just totally obliterate everything. Given a big enough asteroid, there might be nothing we could do to stop total extinction.

We are not safe here. Image
We know that 66 million years ago an asteroid 10-15 km wide smashed into what is today Mexico and killed, like, every animal on the planet that didn't live off of eating dead matter, including all the dinosaurs.

Talk about apocalyptic events. And this was relatively recent! Image
The Earth is constantly peppered by meteoroids. The asteroid that killed the dinosaurs is neither the largest nor oldest confirmed impact. Just look at the map.

It then seems like there is a decent chance of a catastrophic asteroid impact sometime during humanity's existence. Image
So what does this mean? Well, if God hated us… believe me, we would know!

Jokes aside, it implies we cannot reconcile our continued long-term habitation of Earth with low-tech primitivism.

We were cast out of Eden. Perhaps we might only rebuild it with anti-asteroid lasers.
It seems a little bit passé given the other gargantuan changes, but I should also note how plate tectonics constantly remake geography.

If you go back far enough, the Earth might as well be Narnia, Middle Earth, or Faerûn or whatever. Image
Finally, the Earth might, incredibly, not be unique.

Kookiness aside, the science says it is possible Venus and/or Mars used to have liquid surface water and thus maybe life—even before Earth!

It is also conceivable that life came to Earth from Venus or Mars on an asteroid.
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The Earth also has an expiration date for habitability.

The Sun is getting bigger and brighter and will slowly heat the Earth beyond the point where life as we know it can survive.

It might even happen relatively soon, in ~1 billion years.
That there is a definite endpoint to life on Earth, and that Earth may not be unique in hosting life on a billion-year timescale, could imply it is not habitable environments that create the conditions for life, but life that seeks out habitable conditions across space and time.
This logic can easily take you into kooky territory if projected backwards: alien-ish life hopping from Venus to Mars to Earth and beyond as planets die.

But it is perfectly sound projected forwards: humanity will eventually either figure out how to leave the Earth, or die out.
This is why we should not be geocentrists: humanity cannot be tantamount to Earth-Dwellers unless we intend to die out within a billion years.

The pessimist says we will kill ourselves somehow anyway long before. But why should we *intend* this? We should intend the opposite.
It is possible to view life as a fundamentally interplanetary phenomenon, as did some of the original pioneers of rocketry and space travel.

This obviously makes space exploration a fundamental existential priority, as I wrote in @palladiummag:
palladiummag.com/2023/08/16/the…
I won't pretend to have figured out the true cosmology and metaphysics. But we should be trying to actually figure it out based on scientific reality, not imagination or inertia.

This is likely the only path to ever see a mass religious awakening in the developed world again.

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More from @mmjukic

Sep 5
I think the real replacement fertility rate is not 2.1 kids per woman.

It's 5.1 kids.

A recent Swedish study found that in a generation born 1885-1899, an incredible 25% of people who had 2 kids had *zero* descendants by 2007!

For 1 kid? 50%.

A 🧵 on long-term fertility:
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The 2.1 number seems intuitive and is taken as moral or life advice.

Two is good enough to sustain populations. More would dilute investment in each child or cause overpopulation.

But it is actually just a statistical artifact that varies considerably based on mortality. Image
Suppose you aren’t interested in playing your small part in statistically replenishing an entire population to the next generation, but rather interested in replenishing your own family dynasty or lineage over the long-term.

What’s the real replacement fertility rate then?
Read 19 tweets
Aug 10
We definitely do not talk enough about the insane depopulation of Eastern Europe since 1990. Wars, aging, and emigration.

In 1990, Ukraine & Turkey were even. Turkey is now double Ukraine's pop.

For many countries this depopulation literally surpasses the death tolls of WWII. Image
Estimates say the Soviet Union had WWII casualties equiv. to 13% of its 1939 population.

Ukraine has lost -28.9% since 1990.

Romania is at 4% compared to -18.5%. Hungary at about 6% and -6.8%.

Yugoslavia was also at 6% casualties; Croatia has lost -19% since 1990, Serbia -12%. Image
Since 1990, every country in Western Europe has grown, some very healthily like Norway (+31%) or Ireland (+45.7%).

Israel, Egypt, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia have all literally doubled in population in the last 30 years.

Even Germany has grown by +5.9%. France/UK by over +15% each.
Read 9 tweets
Aug 8
Only one country comes close to disrupting U.S. hegemony in global popular culture:

Japan.

But why them?

Because popular culture isn't a subjective art form but an industrial export Japan's military funded for WWII propaganda to defeat Disney.

A 🧵 on industrial pop culture:

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First, the evidence. Of the 50 highest-grossing films ever, 94% are based on U.S./UK intellectual property (IP).

The other 6% are Japanese. No other countries.

Japan is also 56% of the top 50 video games and 28% of the top media franchises, including number one: Pokémon.
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Why, in fact, is all pop culture from English-speaking countries? Where is Europe? China? Brazil?

Music and books are also almost all U.S. or UK.

Our data sources are definitely hopelessly biased towards the U.S. Yet, even then, Japan alone somehow takes a slice of the pie.
Read 43 tweets
Jul 19
Most people have no mental model for distinguishing between criminal offenses and social norm violations.

This means justice systems will over time tend to punish all social norm violations criminally.

Much of U.S. legal thought is premised on this not being the case.
There is this Anglo-American idea of an objective rational justice system that judicially (pun intended) punishes crime and metes out justice, leaving aside mere violations of social norms protected by constitutions and liberties and rights and so on.
I think in practice a society cannot sustain even minimal breathing room between criminal codes and social norms.

So much crime goes unpunished because it's not violating social norms; social norms against crime have just been relaxed greatly.
Read 5 tweets
Jul 10
With 1.4 billion people, Africa is now as populous as China or India. By 2100, a projected 40% of the world will be African.

Rather than lumping all of Africa together, let’s try to break it down and truly understand it.

A 🧵on Africa’s economic and demographic geography: Image
You may not know that Egypt has been threatening war with Ethiopia over their construction of a huge dam that might affect the Nile downstream in Egypt.

The capital of Sudan is, naturally, built on the confluence of the Blue Nile and the White Nile rivers.
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The Maghreb itself has almost the same population, GDP, and GDP per capita as Vietnam.

Funnily enough, it is becoming the Vietnam/Mexico of Western Europe, as a potential low-labor-cost destination for manufacturers.

brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/the-business…
Read 12 tweets
Jul 5
Globalization is probably as old as civilization.

Most underrated historical trend not because it rose so high recently, but because it rose from such a high base.

Claims of Ancient Roman jewelry excavated as far away as Japan and Tanzania.

A 🧵 on ancient globalization:



It is easy to notice a recurring pattern of surprisingly distant trade in historical accounts.

Pliny the Elder and Seneca are both recorded complaining about how much money was being spent on Indian spices and Chinese silk. Roman glassware has been found in China.

Roman trade with India was definitely more developed than with China, which seems to have been only indirect.

Alexander the Great invaded India in 327 BC and left behind a Greek kingdom in Afghanistan and central Asia, after all, so India was known to the Mediterranean world.
Read 17 tweets

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