Thread by @jim_reed

With Boris Johnson giving evidence on Wed at #covidinquiryUK, I spent time looking back at one part of the pandemic which hasn’t got so much attention: decision to lockdown in England a second time on 5 Nov 2020. So here’s what have pieced together on that. Long 🧵(apologies).

To set scene. By Sept 2020 Sage advisers and others were pushing for circuit-breaker lockdown. Was being strongly resisted by Rishi Sunak because of worries about economy. These briefing notes for him from Treasury for meeting of Covid-S ministerial group on 21 Sept, for example.

So what happened instead? On Sept 21 Matt Hancock in Commons announced new £500 self-isolation payment for people on low incomes, new fines if test ➕and don’t isolate, tougher rules in Liverpool, parts of Lancashire where cases👆.

The next day, 22 September 2020, we saw more announcements. Stronger guidance to WFH. Pubs and restaurants have to close at 10pm. Some more mask wearing in taxis, restaurants when not at a table and so on.

By 25 Sept, according to ex scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance’s diary, it’s becoming (even more) clear that have problem. “PM says ‘we must have known this wasn’t working – we have been pretending it has been whereas secretly we know it hasn’t’," he says - quoting Johnson.

Cases keep rising across much of England though. This is what happened from mid-Sept to mid-Oct 2020, according to both the ONS infection survey and the daily tests recorded on the daily Covid dashboard.

On 11 Oct the proposed 'tiers' system of regional restrictions was being discussed in government's Covid-O meeting. Vallance in his diary says was asked to approve them “knowing that it is not enough”. Hancock described it as “last shot” at avoiding lockdown, says Sir Patrick.

So next day, Monday 12 Oct, the tiers system was announced and started two days later. Areas put in three tiers by government. To start with only Liverpool in top tier with bars and clubs closed. Night before was rammed in parts of city centre and police had to disperse crowds.

The same day tiers are announced, Downing Street aides Ben Warner and Lee Cain are WhatsApping each other. “We are so fucked”, says Cain. “Same errors as March.” Ben Warner agrees. “Feels like we are where we knew we would be three/four weeks ago.” (my graphic)

Matt Hancock in his witness statement is pretty clear on tiers: “The system of tiers… did not work”. Gives three reasons: top tier too weak; even in low prevalence areas R > 1; and local leaders argued against being placed in higher tiers which delayed everything.

Worth saying that pretty much everyone so far in this inquiry has accepted that tiers were a failure that autumn – from Hancock and Gove, to Vallance, Whitty and JVT, to the former boss of the Covid taskforce, Simon Ridley. Video 👇is Sir Jonathan Van-Tam.

A week later on 25 Oct 2020. And Sir Patrick Vallance writes in his diary that Boris Johnson is frustrated and shifting between two positions – on one hand saying elderly ‘will die anyway’ on other wanting to beef up tiers and consider a national lockdown.

The next day, again according to Sir Patrick Vallance’s diaries, the cabinet is briefed on Covid. Matt Hancock was apparently worried about the speed of decision-making and Boris Johnson now says we need local lockdowns “fast”.

A few days after that and Boris Johnson makes these notes on a strategy update from Covid Taskforce which he is being asked about. At this point SPI-M say the R-number is 1.22 in England – so outbreak is still growing. At one point Johnson asks “Why not put everyone at tier 3?”

But he’s clearly worried about economy as well. “What do we achieve by smashing the economy if we don’t know how many times we have to do it?” he asks. He questions whether there is still public support for “sweeping government action”. And asks: “WHAT HAPPENED TO MASS TESTING”

Vallance writes about meeting held same day, 28 Oct, in his diary. Simon Stevens, chief exec of NHS England, says only got 10-14 days in high prevalence areas “before hospitals fall over”. PM “resistant to national lockdown and wants to continue with regional,” says Sir Patrick.

Vallance is well aware of the press in his diary entries. In one he says: “Papers now saying why aren’t we doing more”. @piersmorgan gets a mention for how he now apparently supports tougher measures when on 21 Sept he was "fuming" about how wrong Whitty and Vallance were.

I presume Vallance is referring to these earlier comments when Morgan was on GMB - later picked up by the newspapers: express.co.uk/showbiz/tv-rad…

Now Friday 30 Oct - the day before lockdown announced. Vallance’s diaries – again – are interesting on this. "Cabinet secretary Simon Case WhatsApp’d to say national lockdown on Monday – French style". France lockdown came into force that day for 4 weeks but schools stayed open.

There’s meeting later that day. In WhatsApps with Simon Case, Hancock appears worried Rishi Sunak will water down restrictions. “Rishi is in room… so PM will be under enormous pressure not to do enough once again” Case says PM “less convinced” than Sunak re: action (my graphic).

Back to Vallance's diaries. And in later meeting on same day, Johnson says: “We need to act… go to work but shops + others shut.” “I think the scientists may already be right + we may face many deaths”. At that point Sunak (Cx) is, according to this, arguing to keep shops open.

Now my classics/art knowledge is clearly well behind... well anyone's. But think Johnson referring to painting by Bruegel where - if look - life (i.e. farming) goes on but there's a boy in the corner (or maybe Icarus) who is drowning. There's a W.H. Auden poem about this as well.

Vallance’s diary goes on: “These are truly horrible decisions,” he writes. Cummings (apparently) says: “the only reason not to do it [lockdown] now is if you won’t ever do it.” “The idea that a group of fucking Tory MPs… will watch quietly as NHS collapses you are fucking mad”.

Again from Vallance’s diaries: The meeting ended with “no decision and going around in circles”. But then - later - Vallance says "28 day lockdown". Which presumably means it's been agreed.

Finally then we get to the day the lockdown is announced – Sat 31 October. Except.. it wasn’t really meant to be announced that day at all but on Monday 2 Dec. The problem was… this happened.

Right so this thread has gone on SO LONG that I don't think can add any more easily. But in case anyone gets this far (and fair play if you do)...

The whole thing was leaked to papers and is being splashed everywhere on Saturday morning. In WhatsApp messages Hancock is, apparently, livid about all this calling it a “fucking disgrace”. “Even worse… I am being accused in some quarters of being the culprit,” he says.

Sir Patrick Vallance wakes up on Saturday morning to the same headlines. “Frantic day, whole thing leaked to the media.” There is also a row about some of the slides used in the briefing the previous day.

That evening there was a delayed news conference to announce the lockdown. Delayed so much that BBC One had to take “Little Mix: The Search” off air while @ChrisMasonBBC and Reeta Chakrabarti filled air time. Even – yes – Strictly was delayed that evening. metro.co.uk/2020/10/31/str…

Was any other choice but to lockdown? Vallance doesn’t think so. In witness statement says “very large wave” of Covid was inevitable from start of Sept unless extensive measures taken. But rule of six, curfews, tiers were not enough “as the science advice had indicated”.