The #covidinquiry was back up and running this week and quickly into what some people think is one of the biggest scientific or policy mistakes (or 'misunderstandings' depending on your POV) of the whole pandemic. And it's all to do with how Covid is spread in the first place. 🧵 At start of the pandemic, World Health Organization (and others) were CONVINCED Covid was transmitted only through large liquid droplets (after a cough, for example) or touch. It was NOT AIRBORNE, they said. This week the inquiry heard that was just wrong.

https://x.com/WHO/status/1243972193169616898?lang=en

As I write, this is at risk of being MASSIVELY overshadowed by events. But cabinet secretary Simon Case is meant to give evidence to #covidinquiry Thursday. Should have been last year but he was sick and only returned to work in January. Another long 🧵(sorry). Case, only 45, has quite the CV. He held roles at the spy agency GCHQ, was permanent secretary to David Cameron and Theresa May as PMs, did lots of complex Brexit things, then left in 2018 to work with Prince William. Was brought back into government in April 2020 for Covid.

With Boris Johnson giving evidence on Wed at #covidinquiryUK, I spent time looking back at one part of the pandemic which hasn’t got so much attention: decision to lockdown in England a second time on 5 Nov 2020. So here’s what have pieced together on that. Long 🧵(apologies). To set scene. By Sept 2020 Sage advisers and others were pushing for circuit-breaker lockdown. Was being strongly resisted by Rishi Sunak because of worries about economy. These briefing notes for him from Treasury for meeting of Covid-S ministerial group on 21 Sept, for example.

To round off science evidence from last week at #covidinquiryuk, worth looking back at what Dame Angela McLane said on Thurs. In Feb she replaced Vallance as chief scientific adviser to UK Gov. In Covid she was main adviser to MoD, on Sage and co-chaired modelling group SPI-M. 🧵 In her witness statement she says that her close colleague, Prof John Edmunds (more on him later) at London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine was becoming "very worried" about Covid by January 25, 2020 "which made us all worried".

So this is interesting. During Prof Angela McLean's evidence to the #covidinquiry this morning we saw - I think for first time - note which Swedish epidemiologist Anders Tegnell wrote to government ahead of a key meeting in Downing Street in September 2020. Here it is... He was asked the question "Should the [UK] government intervene now, and if so, how?" "The short answer to the question above is, in my opinion, yes," he said. "The myth that Sweden did nothing in the pandemic is false."

Was so busy yesterday didn't have time to tweet on Vallance evidence. But tried to skim his 240 page witness statement last night. Didn't get through all but are some interesting bits in there. Here's a quick 🧵before kids wake up and have to get into work for Sir Chris Whitty. Paragraph 124: Apparently MI5 implemented its pandemic emergency plan in EARLY FEBRUARY 2020 with Sir Andrew Parker, its director general, saying "I'm inclined to listen to scientists [and] have been told this is coming".

Monday should be VERY interesting at #covidinquiryUK as Sir Patrick Vallance, then chief scientific adviser, gives evidence. We've already seen extracts from his private diaries or evening notes - described as a 'brain dump' to protect his mental health. Let's take a look... 1/n The first entry we know about so far comes from May 2020 - as the debate heats up about how to release lockdown restrictions. Sir Patrick is concerned about "following the science" mantra coming from government. In another entry he worries scientists are used as "human shields".

OK so let's talk about Ben Warner's evidence Monday to #covidinquiry as was really detailed and interesting but not kind of thing can easily put into a 500 word news article for BBC website. Here he is on morning of 14/3/20 with Boris Johnson in cabinet room. 1/n A lot of what he said yesterday referred back to his witness statement which was published last night and is linked below. It's 81 pages long so stick with me on this: covid19.public-inquiry.uk/wp-content/upl…

Having read again @orbit_silver's blog and @cjsnowdon's comments, took another look at C4 iv with John Edmunds and tech exec Tomas Pueyo on crucial day - 13/3/20 - as important in Sage thinking at time. Edmunds says only way to stop this is herd immunity, Pueyo has head in hands. Edmunds seems to introduce idea of behavioural fatigue - so need to leave restrictions as late as possible. That's idea SPI-B scientists later totally rejected and Whitty now says was mistake. Pueyo says herd immunity means deaths; NHS will 'completely collapse' in two weeks.

Have just seen unpublished minutes from yesterday's meeting of Sage scientists. A lot of uncertainty in data but essentially my reading is scientists saying: if aim is to stop hospital admissions peaking at 3,000+/day then "more stringent" measures needed this year. 1/10 Some quotes from minutes: "Without intervention beyond measures in place (plan b) modelling indicates peak of at least 3,000 hospital admissions per day in England. Some scenarios have significantly worse outcomes during first few months of 2022 but are many uncertainties." 2/10

BBC understands people given a Pfizer or Moderna vaccine will no longer have to be monitored for 15 minutes after their booster jab. Advice on the removal of the 15 minute observation period in England is currently being finalised, and is expected to be agreed by ministers. The observation period was introduced in the first week of the vaccine rollout, after two healthcare professionals were vaccinated and suffered an allergic reaction.

BBC exclusive: The number of people needing hospital treatment from the Omicron variant may reach at least 1,000 a day in England by the end of the year without extra restrictions being put in place - Sage scientists have told ministers. 1/n They say, given the speed of increase in infections, the government needs to “urgently” consider the need for response measures to reduce transmissions of the virus "if the aim is to reduce the likelihood of unsustainable pressure on the NHS". 2/n

Interesting detail in today’s Grenfell inquiry report about one man: an engineer called Jason Allday who worked for gas supplier Cadent. He is singled out for praise. 1/5 He is an emergency engineer but was not on standby that night. He turned up off his own back after seeing a TV news report. He was familiar with the area and ended up staying for 24 hours. 2/5